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How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

tonysheng.com

31–40 of 74 posts

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has been pretty stable around $6500 for the past month. And for six months has been way more stable than The Shitcoins (BTC has gone from 30% to 50+% of total market cap in that time). Humorous summary of price fluctuations since 2010: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg

You're talking 6 months. Would you want to be paid in BTC for your full time job, or start a business that pays its employees that way?

Absolutely.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you consider USD also subject to a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

> Would you consider USD also subject to a Keynesian Beauty Contest? No. The Fed puts its thumb on the scales. We've known since about the 19th century that growing economies and fixed-supply currencies don't play well together.

> We've known since about the 19th century that growing economies and fixed-supply currencies don't play well together.

Can you give some examples? I don't know much about 19th century economics.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#33

There is a belief that Bitcoin is following specific pattern [0] and will stabilize in 2030 at ~$1M per coin. So far the model was pretty accurate. [0] https://1nodld1ltmqu3jimmy2xsgcu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-... P.S. Dear downvoters, this is not a financial advice!

that chart is currently off by like 100%

Interesting that it called $10K/Bitcoin only a month early, though, and did so 3 years in advance. The actual Bitcoin price underperformed the model by about an order of magnitude throughout 2015 as well as a long stretch in 2012; Bitcoin seems to have a "big bubble, then it bursts and plateaus for years" pattern.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold also has intrinsic utility to industry. The same cannot be said for Bitcoin.

That value is minimal however, in comparison to the total market cap of gold.

I think there's something to be said about gold's utility as money. It's remarkably good at being money compared to other materials. It's easy to store, identify, divide, it's fungible, and it's scarce enough. If civilization were to collapse, I think that there's a fair chance that we'd be using gold and other precious metals as money again, whether or not it was used in the past.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#35

There is a belief that Bitcoin is following specific pattern [0] and will stabilize in 2030 at ~$1M per coin. So far the model was pretty accurate. [0] https://1nodld1ltmqu3jimmy2xsgcu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-... P.S. Dear downvoters, this is not a financial advice!

What makes you think this trend will continue to the future?

I have ZERO evidence to believe that the trend will continue. This chart is pretty popular amongst cryptocurrency followers. I'd actually love to know what experienced trading analysts think about these type of predictions and whether similar non-crypto models exist.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#36

Bitcoin doesn't need to stabilize to be successful. In the same way that the exchange rate of the hyperinflating German Mark and gold didn't need to stabilize. All bitcoin needs to do is continue to operate with it's programmed monetary policy such that its value can't be inflated away through coercion. Money is a commodity whose goal is to transport value through space and time. We are living through -- in human-spe…

Thank you for posting this. Not surprising to see you getting downvoted to oblivion here, but this is something that people really need to keep an open mind about.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that chart is currently off by like 100%

This is chart is not off at all. There is, actually, an updated version https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart.png . I have no idea if the trend will continue.

> There is, actually, an updated version https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart.png.

That's a different chart. It's closer to being accurate because it's been modified to fit more recent data.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#38

Bitcoin is stable in reference to itself, just as USD is stable in reference to itself.

This comparision is empty because anything exchange into the same results with the same. in other words: nobody exachange dollar into dollar unless they are not sound-minded.

Fiat currency is at its best second degree KBC because other countries decide on accepting or rejecting US economical indicators by temporarily betting on their short term future and set currency exchange point for the next 24 hours or so. Nobody buys US dollar because american flag is pretty or english is second broadest language in the world or some other “pretty face” indicator, as currency exhange dollar versus everything for the last 25 years clearly shows USD strenghtening +500% and weakening even 50% all the time.

No, Feds do not decide on this beauty contest. May be suprise to you but only 20% of printed dollar remains in usa. 80% is being shipped out for all sorts of purposes such as balancing countries oil wallets (aka petrodolar) to aiding other countries ending on fact that many countries prefer intra-use of greenbacks to its own currency. So Feds at its best control pretty face of dollar on its local playground aka USA, but in reality they dont because again dollar strength comes from evonomical indicators, not from how much feds prints.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That value is minimal however, in comparison to the total market cap of gold.

I think there's something to be said about gold's utility as money . It's remarkably good at being money compared to other materials. It's easy to store, identify, divide, it's fungible, and it's scarce enough. If civilization were to collapse, I think that there's a fair chance that we'd be using gold and other precious metals as money again, whether or not it was used in the past.

I'm not sure I believe that. If civilization were to collapse, you'd want food, medicine, potentially gas. Potentially solar cells, and some other things.

I think you'd see more traditional bartering than money being introduced again in its earliest stages.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has been pretty stable around $6500 for the past month. And for six months has been way more stable than The Shitcoins (BTC has gone from 30% to 50+% of total market cap in that time). Humorous summary of price fluctuations since 2010: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg

You're talking 6 months. Would you want to be paid in BTC for your full time job, or start a business that pays its employees that way?

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