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How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

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Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#11

Post by buzzdenver »

paulsutter wrote: post #7
threeseed wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USD is also stable in reference to almost everything else. Bitcoin isn't.

Bitcoin has been pretty stable around $6500 for the past month. And for six months has been way more stable than The Shitcoins (BTC has gone from 30% to 50+% of total market cap in that time). Humorous summary of price fluctuations since 2010: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg

You're talking 6 months. Would you want to be paid in BTC for your full time job, or start a business that pays its employees that way?

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#13

Post by JumpCrisscross »

adrianscott wrote: post #4
threeseed wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USD is also stable in reference to almost everything else. Bitcoin isn't.

Would you consider USD also subject to a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

> Would you consider USD also subject to a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

No. The Fed puts its thumb on the scales. We've known since about the 19th century that growing economies and fixed-supply currencies don't play well together.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#14

Post by andreygrehov »

There is a belief that Bitcoin is following specific pattern [0] and will stabilize in 2030 at ~$1M per coin. So far the model was pretty accurate.

[0] https://1nodld1ltmqu3jimmy2xsgcu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-...

P.S. Dear downvoters, this is not a financial advice!

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#15

Post by posixplz »

mastermojo wrote: post #12

So the article concludes that Bitcoin can gain stability by being anchored to the price of gold. However isn't gold a "Keynesian Beauty Contest"? That is, gold is valuable because other people believe other people believe it is a store of value.

Gold also has intrinsic utility to industry. The same cannot be said for Bitcoin.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#16

Post by brokensegue »

lordnacho wrote: post #5
adrianscott wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you consider USD also subject to a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

Yes, there's a 24/5 FX market where people decide what it's worth in relation to other currencies.

The prices fluctuate not due to mere speculation (on the beauty of currencies) but the need to convert currencies to run a company or live your life (e.g. you have dollars and you need to pay your supplier in yuan).

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#17

Post by charlesdm »

posixplz wrote: post #15
mastermojo wrote: post #12

So the article concludes that Bitcoin can gain stability by being anchored to the price of gold. However isn't gold a "Keynesian Beauty Contest"? That is, gold is valuable because other people believe other people believe it is a store of value.

Gold also has intrinsic utility to industry. The same cannot be said for Bitcoin.

That value is minimal however, in comparison to the total market cap of gold.

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#18

Post by canhascodez »

posixplz wrote: post #15
mastermojo wrote: post #12

So the article concludes that Bitcoin can gain stability by being anchored to the price of gold. However isn't gold a "Keynesian Beauty Contest"? That is, gold is valuable because other people believe other people believe it is a store of value.

Gold also has intrinsic utility to industry. The same cannot be said for Bitcoin.

Would you say gold priced at, or above its level of utility to industry?

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#19

Post by brokensegue »

andreygrehov wrote: post #14

There is a belief that Bitcoin is following specific pattern [0] and will stabilize in 2030 at ~$1M per coin. So far the model was pretty accurate. [0] https://1nodld1ltmqu3jimmy2xsgcu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-... P.S. Dear downvoters, this is not a financial advice!

that chart is currently off by like 100%

Re: How can Bitcoin stabilize if it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest?

#20

Post by matthewbauer »

andreygrehov wrote: post #14

There is a belief that Bitcoin is following specific pattern [0] and will stabilize in 2030 at ~$1M per coin. So far the model was pretty accurate. [0] https://1nodld1ltmqu3jimmy2xsgcu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-... P.S. Dear downvoters, this is not a financial advice!

What makes you think this trend will continue to the future?
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