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The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

conradbastable.com

231–240 of 269 posts

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but if you don't have one then you don't even have a chance of making enough savings to afford housing, healthcare, education for your children, et cetera. Where does this idea come from? According to the OECD, only 48% of American adults have a post-secondary education. I find it hard to believe that 52% of Americans truly cannot afford housing, healthcare, education for children, etc. I might even bet that the 52…

The median age in the US is 38. Half of the population is older than that, since 27% of the population is under 18 that means nearly 70% of the adult population is over 38, about 45% is over 50, and about a quarter is over 60. Those older folks had the benefit of higher wage jobs in their early careers, and were able to build their careers, job experience histories, and income levels much faster than later generation…

> on a home price of just 60-100k.

As a millennial, I bought my home for $120k. I'm not sure if your figures are real or nominal, but even if they are real, at worst we're talking $20k more. That's not life ending. Food is way less expensive now. I will easily save $20k on food during the lifespan of my home when compared to what they had to spend, not to mention that interest costs are much cheaper today.

The housing issue is vastly overblown, except in certain major centres. But if you have a job that compensates for the higher cost of housing, what's the problem? You cannot expect to have more money than someone outside of the city. The economy and its quest for equilibrium would never allow that over the long term, although there may be short term opportunities now and again. Economically speaking, your higher paying job must, on average, come with higher expenses so that you don't make more money than people with low-income jobs in low-cost areas.

If you don't have one of those jobs that makes up for the cost of housing, why are you there? There are houses everywhere.

> it is much more difficult to obtain a high paying job without college.

A common misconception that it matters, but a higher paying job doesn't mean anything. The goal is to maximize income less expenses. If a job is higher paying, but you have higher living costs due to the job being in a high cost city, and needing a high cost college degree, then you're not necessarily further ahead.

If you are further ahead than you would be without, what's the issue? You're literally further ahead. The costs are a non-issue. The costs are recouped and then some.

> And study after study show that college educations result in higher incomes.

Not quite. Study after study shows that successful people are successful in college and in the workplace. This is not the same as college resulting in higher income. Handing a college degree to someone who has a crippling mental disability is not going to benefit from it in the workplace. They are going to struggle no matter what, just as successful people will succeed no matter what.

If we took it to the logical extreme and assumed everyone had a post-secondary education, the jobs wouldn't change. Someone would still be flipping burgers at McDonalds, someone would be driving trucks around the country, someone would be writing software, and so on. And they're not going to magically pay more just because you have a degree. Why would they? When have you ever offered the burger flipper at McDonalds more money because they happened to have a degree? College degrees have no bearing on the job market.

I see how it is easy to mix them up, but the data is abundantly clear that it is the latter and not the former. After all, incomes are stagnant and have been for 50-some-odd years. If incomes were increasing with post-secondary attainment, they couldn't also be stagnant.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible that if you did that you might be okay _today_, if your kids are also gonna go to a "decent" school instead of a better school, if you're also gonna get a "decent" house, et cetera, and you happen to live in the right place to enable all of this. The trend lines are strongly suggesting that everywhere is going down similar paths, though. There's no indication there's anywhere specific they're going to -…

Yes, with the wealth (and power) gap increasing, if you want your descendants to have a chance to move up class-wise, you have to try and be in school districts where they will make friends who are high achieving (usually from high achieving parents), so then they can get into high achieving colleges where they can create a network of high achieving people to rely on in their future careers and lives, and maybe even…

But that's the thing, by definition, you can't always move up, and in a lot of cases, it's harmful trying to move up when you're really not ready to spend the effort it takes to give there.

It's statistically unlikely that you and your offspring going to perform at world leading levels of being in the 1%. It's the equivalent of buying the best carpentry tools in the industry and then complaining that they're too expensive for your hobby use. If you're going to pay for Harvard/MIT, you're going to get a lot out of them, but the ROI for going to a such expensive school and living in a highly competitive area only works if you can take full advantage by really maximizing connections and getting high grades. If you can't, which is ok, you're just wasting time and money where spending 60% to go to a decent state school and living in a place that isn't next to FAANG office is going to get you 95% of the return in purchasing power.

Sooner people realize you don't have to be the best, richest, smartest, etc to be happy is when people will stop mortgaging their future to try to achieve something they don't actually want.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought I would roll my own side gig once. The plan was to find broken cars on Craigslist and fix them for a profit. We're talking things like needs an engine or a transmission. I could do maybe ten a year. I'd be keeping a car out of the junk yard (which I imagine is good for GDP in a very small way) and making a very modest profit of $10,000/yr if I was lucky. Well it turns out that is HIGHLY regulated. You need…

I think it would be in society's interest to know the credibility of someone repairing and selling 2 tons of metal that will go out on the road and pose considerable risk to others' and the driver's lives on the road. See the limo crash that just killed 18 in New York state. There might be situations where corrupt government is inhibiting competition for the gain of particular parties, but some things do make sense,…

I know this might be surprising to people who grew up in certain areas where scumbag business practices are the norm but the total number of people who run their small businesses like scumbags is very low compared to those that don't. It costs society more to make everyone play to the lowest common denominator than it does to clean up after the scumbags.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#234

Cost of my childrens’ education will much more than $180k. Daycare is 70-80k then private school is 300k+. Public schools are in a very sad state. Children are a true luxury in this day and age.

Out of curiosity where are you living where the public school are so bad the only alternative is 300k+? I live in a larger midwestern city and the public schools are decent. Some students will go to Harvard, most go to a respected state school, some don't go to college

In Bay Area the situation with public schools is pretty dire, in my oppinion. Palo Alto, Cupertino and Los Gatos are ok. The rest are surviving.

Housing in districts where public schools are ok comes at a massive premium. The difference between San Jose and Los Gatos is more than 300k.

Private schools are 2-3k per month.

To afford Bay Area both parents have to work 50+ hours a week with 30+ minute commutes. As a result, the time parents spend with children is very limited. Raising a famility with even 2 children is a big challenge.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#235

He misses what I consider a major issue. The price of college education is going up much faster than the cost of providing it. If you look at tuition vs what a professor is paid, one goes up much faster than the other. If you look at housing costs things don't add up either - renting an apartment seems to be a source of revenue for the schools. These are the obvious places the schools are making a ton of money - wher…

It's an excellent point. As for housing, where does the extra wealth go? Nowhere. No one benefits when you lock up land that can't be used by anyone. Now you might argue that existing land owners benefit: but they actually don't. Because they're not moving and selling, they haven't realized any gain at all. If they sold but stay in the same area, there's no gain. And in states without the reprehensible prop 13, those…

Which land are you referring to? I certainly don't want our open spaces to be sold off to developers.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

believe me, i find it equally frustrating that all the crap we don't need is getting cheaper and cheaper with more progress. And yet, the bare essentials of life which are so important, aren't making any progress at all: shelter and medical insurance, etc.

Food has become substantially cheaper over time. I don't think that can be discounted as a bare essential. Shelter and medical services have ballooned due to ever increasing regulation. That regulation may be necessary, but it unquestionably comes with a cost.

Shelter is more expensive because there are more people. Increased regulation is a minor factor.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with a good health care package, a friend paid $10 thousand dollars (his maximum deductible) for the first year of one of his children, due to infant allergies.

That is not what most people consider a 'good' health care package. That would be considered a 'high deductible' plan. When people talk about 'good' health care plans in the US they tend to think of traditional low deductible PPO. Those tend to have family deductibles in the $500-1k range. Though the employee premium differences might add up to more than 10K in the face of a 'good' health care plan so its largely not…

There's no real correlation between the "goodness" of an insurance plan and its deductible. In the end all that really matters is the quality of care you receive and how much you have to pay for it.

Many employers offer high deductible plans but also contribute into the employee's HSA which can be used to pay deductibles. In theory that incentivizes the employee to shop around and get the best possible deal on care.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#238
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food has become substantially cheaper over time. I don't think that can be discounted as a bare essential. Shelter and medical services have ballooned due to ever increasing regulation. That regulation may be necessary, but it unquestionably comes with a cost.

Shelter is more expensive because there are more people. Increased regulation is a minor factor.

I disagree. Shelter is only bound by what it costs to build a new shelter. This is where regulation has had a dramatic impact over time. Nobody would ever allow you to build a pioneer log cabin as a primary dwelling these days, even though the costs would be minimal to erect such a structure. There are very strict standards that must be adhered to in order to build shelter now.

Land is also necessary on which to build said shelter, but vacant lots in rural areas can be had quite cheaply. Lots of places where an acre, which is more than plenty to build shelter on, won't fetch much of anything dollar wise. That is, where regulation allows you to actually buy a small lot in a rural area from the surrounding landowner. Regulation often makes doing that very difficult.

The problem, at least not in a huge country like the USA, isn't population. There is incredible amounts of unused space ripe for housing someone. The problem is being able to build shelters for those people without getting caught up in red tape.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" The price of college education is going up much faster than the cost of providing it. If you look at tuition vs what a professor is paid, one goes up much faster than the other. " That's the most important question. Same applies to health care. Where does the money actually go and how has that changed over the last 50 years? Everybody immediately complains about their favorite scapegoat but there is no comprehensiv…

Steve Ballmer was talking about how healthcare costs have gone up like 400% over a 30 year period but expected lifespans only increased by .6 years. We’re pahing exponentially more for relatively insignificant gains.

Let's not ignore quality of life, though I agree it probably hasn't increased "4X" (whatever that would mean).

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how much did it cost you to have a baby in Denmark, just so the conversation is clarified? Also as an aside there are lots of babies born in the US that are paid for via taxes and cost $0 out of pocket for the family. Medicaid, the VA, Tri-care etc. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I'd bet that there were more American babies that were tax paid for than Danish ones in a given year.

Given that there's less than 10 million Danes I guess that's a good bet. how much did it cost me to have a baby in Denmark, gee I don't know how much did you pay for the crosswalks on your street? What I do know is that when I went to hospital and the baby was born nobody hit me with a $15000 bill afterwards just like when they installed a new crosswalk where you live nobody came by your house and billed you $15000.…

Look, I’m not some anti single payer guy. In fact given the option I’d bet on it being the best of the options.

But it’s just untrue that you paid $0 to have a kid. You don’t know how much you paid & that’s ok. But it’s a valid criticism of single payer.

Further it is also true that the US system has deep flaws but it’s fundamentally untrue that the many Americans get the full boat costs of a birth. So comparing your $0 cost & a $15k outlier is largely a futile excercise.

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