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The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

conradbastable.com

201–210 of 269 posts

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When you can buy 50" LCD screen for 200$ instead of 700$, you've got more wealth, same for land: that's Progress. Great example! More to the point, total wealth is useless, just as GDP is useless as a measure of citizen wellness and happiness (US GDP was 18.57 trillion USD in 2016). It's the distribution that matters and where we're utterly failing. Your example is not progress when necessities inflation (housing,…

believe me, i find it equally frustrating that all the crap we don't need is getting cheaper and cheaper with more progress. And yet, the bare essentials of life which are so important, aren't making any progress at all: shelter and medical insurance, etc.

Food has become substantially cheaper over time. I don't think that can be discounted as a bare essential.

Shelter and medical services have ballooned due to ever increasing regulation. That regulation may be necessary, but it unquestionably comes with a cost.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no expert on the gritty details of the German system (who would have thought health care could be that complicated, right?) but as German resident I have some insights. Everybody who knows better, please correct me. In Germany everybody who is employed in way that pays social insurance is also health insured, you cannot opt out of it. In that system, in addition to taxes, social security and unemployment insuranc…

Yes I got that part wrong. Sorry I misunderstood the text I read on the topic, you're right. My original comment was talking about people that are not insured (and not obliged to e.g. due to not being residents). My point is that healthcare always costs something, and the sum is very similar to the cost in the US once you get them to give you a discount for uninsured people - but of course there is better social secu…

Last time I checked, the US was among the most expensive countries regarding health care. But I don't have a source at the moment.

And sure, health care ia costing money, nobody is argueing that. What Europe figured out is that a solidaric system, one where people with less individual costs are covering for those with higher costs, are the optimal solution from a national perspective. It still pizzles me how that can actually be a issue in any developed democracy.

And again, all legal residents are eligible for health care in EU countries. A good thing if you ask me.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#203
post #56

Here’s a controversial perspective. Maybe most people’s expectations are too lofty, and their abilities much lower than the think they are. In 2000, less than 25% of the working popultion had a bachelors degree. Today, every young person I talk to expects to finish a Phd, JD, and MBA. And, now everyone wants to live in the trendiest (highest-cost areas). There are plenty of places in the US where a house can be purca…

What the linked article is trying to explain is that the opposite is true. It isn't that everyone wants to live in the trendiest areas, it's that they _have_ to in order to find a job that has any hope of paying off their debts fast enough for them to save up enough so that when the next huge expense comes through they can afford it... likely taking on more debt even so. It isn't that everyone wants a degree - certai…

Hi, OP of the actual article here!

Thanks for summarizing this here. This is spot on. And of course I'm being a bit hyperbolic -- like I said, the median American still gets to build wealth. Just not as much as their parents. Or their parents' parents.

The only "expectation" I took as a granted was that a given person not-so-far-from-the-median can build Wealth in America. If you're willing to set THAT one lower, then perhaps there is no problem now or on the horizon...

I commented elsewhere that it doesn't seem to me that "Economic Surplus" / "Building Wealth" is an axiom of any system. So perhaps that expectation should in fact be lowered. But that's certainly not something my peers or I are willing to do. Thus the race.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#204
post #80

> But unlike the prophecies of talking cartoon bears, all this money didn’t drive inflation through the roof and crash the stock market. It doesn’t seem to have really gone…anywhere. This essay is obviously backed by a lot of thought, but this specific conclusion is a bit glib. Talking of things which are exponential, 2 trillion dollars is a few magnitudes bigger than 2 million dollars. That is more than the annual G…

Hey, OP here. Thanks for reading.

For sure, this was a bit intentionally glib. My own understanding of macroeconomics is relatively light, so I linked to two different perspectives on this event and glossed by it a bit.

The point I was trying to make (suggest? raise?) was that regardless of your views on printing $2,000,000,000,000, the crazy Cost-Disease-funded-by-debt does not appear to be a symptom of a banking system gone mad chasing risk (ala 2008). Which means it can rationally go higher still, which means it will keep going higher, past the point where all surplus wealth generated by the median Americans is consumed.

I was just trying understand what was fueling this fire, and whether it was rational or irrational exuberance.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wooo, I hadn't realized we pay for it with taxes! Wow thanks for correcting me, this sure has been a week for me, why yesterday I just barely learned that water was wet - imagine that!?!

So how much did it cost you to have a baby in Denmark, just so the conversation is clarified? Also as an aside there are lots of babies born in the US that are paid for via taxes and cost $0 out of pocket for the family. Medicaid, the VA, Tri-care etc. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I'd bet that there were more American babies that were tax paid for than Danish ones in a given year.

Given that there's less than 10 million Danes I guess that's a good bet.

how much did it cost me to have a baby in Denmark, gee I don't know how much did you pay for the crosswalks on your street?

What I do know is that when I went to hospital and the baby was born nobody hit me with a $15000 bill afterwards just like when they installed a new crosswalk where you live nobody came by your house and billed you $15000.

Did my taxes pay for all of my baby being born - I guess they probably did I am in the highest bracket and have been for approximately 15 years. However I also know that anyone who has a baby in Denmark has it without getting billed. And I guess that's the way most of us like it.

So while there may be more American babies that Danish babies born with taxes paying for their birth I'm just going to have to point out that there is a greater percentage of Danish, or pretty much any European country's, babies worn without the parents paying a relatively large fee for the privilege.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#206
post #2

> Google tells me that the most common reason for hospitalization in the US is childbirth. Thankfully, here in San Francisco, that would only set me back $15,000 Surely this is not true? Does having kids just bankrupt ordinary people in the US or what? I'm not asking about exceptional cases, like what is the normal way of dealing with having to pay $15,000 just to have a baby climb out of your body, when I'm assuming…

It's worth noting, the birth rate here in CA has been reducing for the last 30 years and recently has reached a 100 year low. It's currently lower than it was during the great depression.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#207

I've been wondering recently if the economy has shaped to optimally exploit the most readily available and easily renewable resource available: people. There's been an explosion in computing power over the last two decades, and computing power roughly equals the ability to optimise. Has this allowed the economy, through sheer market forces, to reach an equilibrium where people are maximally exploited while still bein…

(Hey, OP here, thanks for reading I really appreciate it!)

Look, on the one hand this can get a bit too cynical, to the extent that you start looking for a "grim cabal" (quoting myself, not you) to blame. There are no lizard people etc. etc. :) So you have to phrase things carefully.

On the other hand, this quote from the article is me trying to highlight...exactly what you're saying here about optimizing human output:

"The slave works for his owner. The indentured servant for his master. The communist for everyone. The American for himself. It’s a powerful idea, a powerful motivator, and a powerful system. A grand competition, where advancement can be achieved through merit and competence — so don’t be shocked when those with merit and competence flock to compete. And they make perfect competitors."

I wanted to dodge the Culture War / Politics questions a bit. This was more about specifying the pain points than proposing My Genius Solution To The Utopia Problem #729.

But I didn't want to let it go unsaid that the American system powerfully motivates the sorts of people most-apt-to-compete to do exactly that.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#208
post #44

I very interesting article. This kind of numbers should be on the news all the time (like global warming) so people focus more on them instead of what is the last Twitt from the president. > "Get rich or die trying" I have always seen this as USA's major flaws. You are not supposed to have a good life but to risk everything for riches. This was working when the rest of the world was under-developed. USA citizens had…

I thought I would roll my own side gig once. The plan was to find broken cars on Craigslist and fix them for a profit. We're talking things like needs an engine or a transmission. I could do maybe ten a year. I'd be keeping a car out of the junk yard (which I imagine is good for GDP in a very small way) and making a very modest profit of $10,000/yr if I was lucky. Well it turns out that is HIGHLY regulated. You need…

Food trucks and any other fad that burns out slowly.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#209
post #56

Here’s a controversial perspective. Maybe most people’s expectations are too lofty, and their abilities much lower than the think they are. In 2000, less than 25% of the working popultion had a bachelors degree. Today, every young person I talk to expects to finish a Phd, JD, and MBA. And, now everyone wants to live in the trendiest (highest-cost areas). There are plenty of places in the US where a house can be purca…

What the linked article is trying to explain is that the opposite is true. It isn't that everyone wants to live in the trendiest areas, it's that they _have_ to in order to find a job that has any hope of paying off their debts fast enough for them to save up enough so that when the next huge expense comes through they can afford it... likely taking on more debt even so. It isn't that everyone wants a degree - certai…

> but if you don't have one then you don't even have a chance of making enough savings to afford housing, healthcare, education for your children, et cetera.

Where does this idea come from?

According to the OECD, only 48% of American adults have a post-secondary education. I find it hard to believe that 52% of Americans truly cannot afford housing, healthcare, education for children, etc. I might even bet that the 52% have an easier time (especially with shelter), as there seems to be a correlation between the desire to live in an expensive city and having post-secondary attainment.

Additionally, wages are stagnant. The rapid rise in post-secondary attainment mentioned by the parent has done nothing to increase incomes among the workforce. The article points out that incomes have been on the decline for those without a post-secondary education. But misses the obvious: As colleges select for the most successful people, the most successful people without a degree who brought up the average in previous years now belong to the college group.

People can't set their expectations lower, but they can set them higher by not falling prey to misleading interpretations of the data surrounding college. The data is abundantly clear that there has been no advantage in the significant rise in post-secondary attainment. If anything, people are worse off now because of it.

Re: The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I decided not to donate to my college when I saw them moving an entire historical house up a hill. They're a major research university with a $3 billion dollar endowment, a Pac-12 football team, and the largest employer in Washington State after its own government. I'm pretty sure my $100/month has more utility to more people at a food bank, than it would at that school.

Curious, which historical house?

Cunningham Hall.

http://www.washington.edu/news/2008/06/05/moving-cunningham-...

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