Live data from Hacker News

A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

arstechnica.com

41–50 of 72 posts

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#41

Short version of the article: One op-ed article attacking SpaceX's safety practices appears in the newspapers of several space-industry-oriented cities. The article is not written by the person it is attributed to, but rather by two people apparently affiliated with a PR firm in Washington, DC. One of the three main clients of said PR firm is Boeing, SpaceX's direct competitor.

I actually got approached myself to write something like this recently.

I blog occasionally about defense issues. I got a call out of the blue from someone who said they liked something I'd written about the F-35 (this: https://jasonlefkowitz.net/2013/08/stovl-the-f-35-and-how-we...), and would I be interested in getting paid to write an op-ed about the current state of the F-35 program?

I'm always interested in getting paid, so I said sure, let's talk. And over the course of ten minutes or so of conversation, it came out that:

- What the caller really wanted was an article about all the cost overruns of the F-35 program;

- Specifically, an article that attributed those cost overruns to the rocky development of the F-35's engine, Pratt and Whitney's F135 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pratt_%26_Whitney_F135); and

- That the caller was representing a D.C. "government relations" (aka lobbying) firm.

At that point I politely ended the conversation, because it was obvious what was happening.

The question of what engine to put in the F-35 was the subject of a long and bitter political battle back in the 2000s between the two big producers of aircraft engines in the US, Pratt and Whitney and General Electric. P&W won that battle and got their engine chosen for the F-35, but GE self-funded their own alternative engine and then pushed hard for years to get Congress to approve funding it as an "alternate engine" -- a sort of insurance policy against P&W tanking the too-big-to-fail F-35 project by screwing their engine up. The Air Force didn't want that insurance policy, but GE won the support of a few powerful Senators on the Armed Services and Appropriations committees, and those Senators managed to steer enough money to GE to keep the program alive until 2011, when it was finally axed for cost-cutting reasons. (Here's some background on this story: https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2009/07/experts-contractors-an..., https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2011/0217/F-..., https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/157649-pen...)

So what was going on, I surmised, was that someone with an interest in making Congress regret the decision to cancel GE's alternate engine -- maybe GE themselves, maybe some other company in their orbit, or maybe just someone with a financial interest in seeing UTX (P&W's parent company) go down a few points and GE go up -- had decided that the time was ripe to start building a public record linking the F-35's problems to the decision to go with P&W's engine; and they had money to spend to hire people to make that happen. (It wouldn't even need to be much money. By the standards of defense contracting, writers are dirt cheap.) And so they had engaged this lobbying firm, and the lobbying firm had gone looking for people who could write knowledgeably about the F-35, and Google had led them to me.

I didn't take the gig. But it did provide an interesting case study in the kind of maneuvering that goes on behind the scenes of the manufacturing of opinion.

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm glad you convinced yourself, but this situation has been argued over for years by a lot of people on Reddit, and I really doubt you can bring any hard facts to the argument that aren't well-known.

See, I am not convinced at all. It is reasonable to assume that SpaceX has lower development cost (it would be hard to be more expensive than Ariane and ULA so). Which means SpaceX reaches the program break-even point earlier. Launch costs on the other hand are driven by production cost mainly. And there I don't see any systematic advantage that would explain the lower prices SpaceX is advertising. I know that there…

> Which means SpaceX reaches the program break-even point earlier

I mostly agree, but it's entirely possible that they just spread the cost out more, which would reduce the cost of individual launches.

As far as production goes - my recollection is that SpaceX does a lot of in-house stuff, so they've got vertical integration going for them. Perhaps more importantly, they build their own engines, and lots of them (10 per rocket, as I believe MVac is similar enough to the first stage engines to use essentially the same production). That's a pretty big advantage over buying RD-180s like ULA.

Also, doesn't SpaceX use essentially 'off-the-shelf' electrical components, and just use more if needed for redundancy? 'Space-grade' hardware isn't cheap, so if they really are avoiding that entirely, that could be a big win.

Whatever the case, unfortunately for us, they're a private company - so this is all semi-educated guesswork. They definitely seem to be doing well, so clearly something somewhere is keeping those costs down.

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm glad you convinced yourself, but this situation has been argued over for years by a lot of people on Reddit, and I really doubt you can bring any hard facts to the argument that aren't well-known.

See, I am not convinced at all. It is reasonable to assume that SpaceX has lower development cost (it would be hard to be more expensive than Ariane and ULA so). Which means SpaceX reaches the program break-even point earlier. Launch costs on the other hand are driven by production cost mainly. And there I don't see any systematic advantage that would explain the lower prices SpaceX is advertising. I know that there…

There's a NASA study that says that SpaceX has lower development cost. SpaceX has a volume advantage for manufacturing. SpaceX makes a lot of usually-contracted-out stuff in-house and at high volume, for example they are the #1 maker of composite rocket fairings. Horizontal assembly and payload integration is much cheaper than the way ULA/Arianespace assemble and launch rockets. The most recent announced number for F9 cost was $50mm for a reused+landed GTO launch -- see the FH press conference. And so on. There are a lot of details flying around, some more solid than others, and you're probably not going to learn much in a discussion about them here.

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#44
post #4

Musk seems to attract so, so many tinfoil hat type conspiracy theories. He's veering into being almost a Hank Rearden caricature. EDIT: The tinfoil bit was over the top, but he's such a lightning rod and attracts so much criticism and persecution from the entrenched interests he is trying to disrupt, that it starts to look like there is some shadowy cabal trying to bring him down. I rather like the guy, we need some…

"Boeing often employs PR firms against their competitors" is hardly a conspiracy theory.

However, Boeing is not the only entity whose lunch SpaceX is threatening to eat. Wonder if other could be involved.

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm glad you convinced yourself, but this situation has been argued over for years by a lot of people on Reddit, and I really doubt you can bring any hard facts to the argument that aren't well-known.

See, I am not convinced at all. It is reasonable to assume that SpaceX has lower development cost (it would be hard to be more expensive than Ariane and ULA so). Which means SpaceX reaches the program break-even point earlier. Launch costs on the other hand are driven by production cost mainly. And there I don't see any systematic advantage that would explain the lower prices SpaceX is advertising. I know that there…

As just one example, you say Google most likely saved SpaceX from bankruptcy in 2016. As far as I know, neither Google nor anyone else did any investment into SpaceX in 2016. Where are you getting your information?

Also, have you not even considered the official reasons given for why SpaceX is cheaper? Namely vertical integration, extreme cost consciousness, use of off the shelve hardware, designs made to take advantage of economies of scale (several smaller engines per rocket instead of a few), the advantages of clean slate designs, and details like friction welding?

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Safety practices for people going into space? Honestly.. Pretty sure people going out of the atmosphere, inches away from an instant, unimaginable death are aware that it's not exactly safe. The company obviously has a huge vested interest in not having people die but it's kind of inevitable when you're in such a high stakes game. NASA has had plenty of deaths

And what of safety of people on the ground, in areas where a device may crash land? And so on and so forth? Should we disregard safety on their account, too?

When does spacex launch over populated areas? They are either launching into polar orbits on the west coast or florida for non-polar orbits, neither of which overflies populated areas.

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#47
post #40

This is somewhat tangential to the topic, but having worked in PR/marketing agency environments and heard stories from friends, I've found them to be the most amoral places to work at. The agency where I worked (social media marketing) would make outrageous claims and give a lot of "smoke and mirror" presentations to both land clients and give them the impression they were getting more for their money than they were.…

> What might be worse is it's quite possible Boeing is finding out through this reporting.

_If_ Boeing really is behind all this, they may well be unaware of the specific details, sure. But so what? This doesn't make them any less responsible. So I don't understand what makes this "worse".

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, I am not convinced at all. It is reasonable to assume that SpaceX has lower development cost (it would be hard to be more expensive than Ariane and ULA so). Which means SpaceX reaches the program break-even point earlier. Launch costs on the other hand are driven by production cost mainly. And there I don't see any systematic advantage that would explain the lower prices SpaceX is advertising. I know that there…

> Which means SpaceX reaches the program break-even point earlier I mostly agree, but it's entirely possible that they just spread the cost out more, which would reduce the cost of individual launches. As far as production goes - my recollection is that SpaceX does a lot of in-house stuff, so they've got vertical integration going for them. Perhaps more importantly, they build their own engines, and lots of them (10…

Yep, I fully agree. Would be real fun to dig into SpaceX numbers. I'll just for the IPO then.

And it is impressive what they achieved.

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#49
post #24

The underlying message is that Boeing isn't confident they'll beat Crew Dragon to orbit. They've already stacked the deck with more funding due to their "legacy overhead" but apparently even that isn't enough.

Is Boeing having trouble competing on all of features, price, and schedule? I think the story is more complicated as always - If you watch Scott Manley's channel, I think there's a few mission profiles that ULA can do better than SpaceX. One launcher can't do everything well.

I think right now Boeing is ahead schedule-wise, but it's a bit of a coin flip for who will launch first. I wouldn't be surprised if they're within 3 months of each other, both for the initial test and the first crewed test.

Re: A shadowy op-ed campaign is now smearing SpaceX in space cities

#50
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, I am not convinced at all. It is reasonable to assume that SpaceX has lower development cost (it would be hard to be more expensive than Ariane and ULA so). Which means SpaceX reaches the program break-even point earlier. Launch costs on the other hand are driven by production cost mainly. And there I don't see any systematic advantage that would explain the lower prices SpaceX is advertising. I know that there…

As just one example, you say Google most likely saved SpaceX from bankruptcy in 2016. As far as I know, neither Google nor anyone else did any investment into SpaceX in 2016. Where are you getting your information? Also, have you not even considered the official reasons given for why SpaceX is cheaper? Namely vertical integration, extreme cost consciousness, use of off the shelve hardware, designs made to take advant…

Alphabet and some other fund (fidelity?) invested $ 1bn in, I think 2016. Could have been 2015 as well. I don't have the numbers ready right now. But I'm rather sure it was the year after a Falcon 9 exploded and they didn't launch for a couple of months.
Post reply on HN