Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#61

Post by geezerjay » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:53 AM UTC

dragosmocrii wrote: post #35

Personally, I think Elon Musk wants out of Tesla. The things he did lately, all point to this conclusion. Maybe he lost vision or interest in the company, but leaving from his own will would jeopardize the future of the company, since most of Tesla's backers are fans of him. Arranging himself an exit in this way, would make it look as he's the victim left with no choice but leave.

> Arranging himself an exit in this way, would make it look as he's the victim left with no choice but leave.

...which would be very convenient if he believed there was no way to meet the company's targets and fix its problems, thus being bound to failure.

...which, coincidentally, is what short sellers also believe and have been warning about for ages.

Thus the "I was forced to leave" spin would be an effective excuse to avoid the blowback and the stigma of failing to perform and deliver on his promises that the company was viable while it wasn't.

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#62

Post by adventured » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:56 AM UTC

kilburn wrote: post #57

adventured wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most Americans are lucky to even have a positive net worth The median American has a positive net worth of around $55,000. That's higher than Germany or Sweden, and just below Finland. > A traffic ticket hurts your average American much more than this The average American has a positive net worth of over $300,000 and represents the fourth richest average of any nationality. As such, the average American would shrug…

These net worth figures don't take into account the differences in social models. The average German has been paying more taxes for their entire life. In exchange, their net worth won't be affected if they get cancer, they will get help if they go broke, etc. Comparing net worth figures directly doesn't sound fair to me given these differences...

Your premise doesn't explain why France - which has a far more expensive welfare state than Germany - has a median net worth roughly three times that of Germany and Sweden.

Or why Belgium is nearly 4x that of Germany. Or why Italy is 3x that of Germany. And so on. It's very clearly a problem that specifically has to do with Germany. Even South Korea, which has only started to become affluent in the last two decades, is well ahead of Germany and Sweden (and the US median as well).

You're also making the excellent point that Americans should be far worse off than Germans and Swedes, because they should be going broke constantly due to medical bills. And yet the American median wealth is still higher.

The US spends as much on its welfare state as a percentage of its economy, as what Canada and Australia do, and is just behind Switzerland.

The median American receives healthcare through their employer. That directly detracts from their income potential, and given how expensive US healthcare is (typically 60% to 80% more than other developed nations), it detracts in a very big way. By your way of thinking, we should account for that massive gap in cost of healthcare and how it impacts income figures (which impacts max savings potential). It's certainly not fair to account for Germans paying into taxes for eg healthcare, while ignoring that Americans lose out on income in the relationship with their employer due to the immense cost of healthcare in the US: that is the tax.

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#63

Post by Clomez » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:57 AM UTC

nikofeyn wrote: post #46

Steel_Phoenix wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no shortage of boring automotive companies to invest in if that's what they want. Invest in Musk if you believe the future won't happen fast enough if you don't. A corporate board making all the decisions would have been long ago crushed by big oil or bigger manufacturers, or their patents bought and buried to continue the status-quo.

how is tesla the future? they are still figuring out how to reliably manufacture a very small number of stagnant models, whereas every other car manufacturer iterates on multiple models every year, and it all works like clockwork and yields very reliable and safe cars. my kia optima sxl is much less than 50% of a tesla and yet has a higher fit and finish and is more safe.

but manufacturing entirely new type of car? somebody gotta take the hit of being the first (most of the time, failing) one to try to do it on this scale. It's the only way forward. I think old and steady auto manufacturers are too stagnant to ever try their hand at such a risky but needed move.

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#64

Post by ACow_Adonis » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:57 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #51

apatters wrote: post #39

If the fine is intended to be punitive or act as a deterrent, it surely fails. Musk's net worth is over $20B, so a $20M fine is It's a joke really, most Americans are lucky to even have a positive net worth. A traffic ticket hurts your average American much more than this fine hurts Musk and he committed a much larger crime than parking in the wrong spot.

> most Americans are lucky to even have a positive net worth The median American has a positive net worth of around $55,000. That's higher than Germany or Sweden, and just below Finland. > A traffic ticket hurts your average American much more than this The average American has a positive net worth of over $300,000 and represents the fourth richest average of any nationality. As such, the average American would shrug…

Not to be "that stats guy", but i think the phrase you're looking for in your second paragraph there is the "American average", which is a totally different concept from the "average American".

If you must use the concept of an average American (which I'm generally against because people/entities with multiple dependent and interlinked characteristics are not numbers and so average is pretty ill defined), I think general consensus is that your first measure of median would be more appropriate.

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#65

Post by bogomipz » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:59 AM UTC

starbugs wrote: post #48

Musk is just a human like everyone else after all. You know like having emotions, making mistakes and stuff. How would you act if you'd come that far and then find yourself threatened by a horde of wild short-sellers and then the SEC? Even though his behavior isn't rational, it's understandable to a certain degree. What exactly does short-selling Tesla stock contribute to our well-being as a society? Even though I th…

>"How would you act if you'd come that far and then find yourself threatened by a horde of wild short-sellers and then the SEC?"

You act like a leader, ignore it and get back to work.

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#66

Post by rlue » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:01 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #51

apatters wrote: post #39

If the fine is intended to be punitive or act as a deterrent, it surely fails. Musk's net worth is over $20B, so a $20M fine is It's a joke really, most Americans are lucky to even have a positive net worth. A traffic ticket hurts your average American much more than this fine hurts Musk and he committed a much larger crime than parking in the wrong spot.

> most Americans are lucky to even have a positive net worth The median American has a positive net worth of around $55,000. That's higher than Germany or Sweden, and just below Finland. > A traffic ticket hurts your average American much more than this The average American has a positive net worth of over $300,000 and represents the fourth richest average of any nationality. As such, the average American would shrug…

You selected the mean ($388,585) instead of the median ($55,876). One is America's average net worth per person (adult); the other is the net worth of the average American.

Given that these values differ by over $300,000, that's arguably even less accurate than saying that the average American's net worth is below zero.

EDIT: misread original comment's mention of median figure, but given its overall assertion in the context of this discussion, I'm leaving this here.

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#67

Post by Asparagirl » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:01 AM UTC

desdiv wrote: post #45

vilhelm_s wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the article, the settlement does not let him proclaim innocence (but it doesn't require him to admit guilt). As I read the article, this part was the unchanged between the SEC's first offer and the eventual settlement.

Exactly. The original deal was: 1. No admission of guilt 2. Bar from chairmanship for 2 years 3. $10 million fine for Musk and $10 million fine for Tesla The final deal was: 1. No admission of guilt 2. Bar from chairmanship for 3 years 3. $20 million fine for Musk and $20 million fine for Tesla So the 48 hour delay brought Musk nothing in return. [0] https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/29/17918252/elon-musk-tesla-... [1]…

Importantly, both deals also require adding two new independent directors to the Tesla board.

Who will, one presumes, get to see the company’s books, and then vote on what to do about those numbers.

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#68

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:01 AM UTC

Reedx wrote: post #38

chipotle_coyote wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to push back against this narrative, because it seems a lot of the "let Elon be Elon" arguments are neatly encapsulated in this line: Tesla is doing wild things which are causing crazy growth, but also crazy panic. But the critics of Musk's behavior would respond, I think correctly, that there is a categorical difference between "wild things which cause crazy panic because they are high risk with high upsid…

Indeed, but at end of the day he's human and sometimes we say stupid things driven by emotion. You have to weigh the good and the bad, and thus far I'd say it's no contest. Elon has contributed far more upside.

[deleted]

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#69

Post by r00fus » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:02 AM UTC

cperciva wrote: post #24

Is Elon Musk really an asset that Tesla needs to hold onto? I'll admit that he's a great salesman; but he's also a spoiled child who throws tantrums when he doesn't get his way. If Tesla wants to be taken seriously as a car company -- rather than as a maker of toys for people who have too much money on their hands -- they might well be better off calling his bluff.

Musk sure sounds a lot like a younger Steve Jobs.

Maybe he needs to leave then come back?

Re: Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla: Fight the S.E.C., or I Quit

#70

Post by r00fus » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:03 AM UTC

apatters wrote: post #39

If the fine is intended to be punitive or act as a deterrent, it surely fails. Musk's net worth is over $20B, so a $20M fine is It's a joke really, most Americans are lucky to even have a positive net worth. A traffic ticket hurts your average American much more than this fine hurts Musk and he committed a much larger crime than parking in the wrong spot.

The fine is to be repaid to the short sellers (the ones he tried to punk by claiming the privatization deal was done).

That must be particularly galling to Musk.