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China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

nytimes.com

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Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#71

Post by prolikewh0a »

paradite wrote: post #13
alecco wrote: post #4

The kind of "bad economic news" censored: TABLE-China bond defaults rise over 56 pct from 2017 at $8.74 bln https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-defaults/table...

How about stopping the baseless accusations thrown at China? http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-04-13/do... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2018-08-31/doc-ihinpmn... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-06-15/do... http://bond.jrj.com.cn/2018/09/30133825154607.shtml http://bond.hexun.com/2018-08-01/193639187.html Edit: Looks like I'm being flagged for pointing out the false accus…

If it's on the NY Times about a trade war and a country the USA is losing ground to economically, it's probably something relating to Chomsky's propaganda model.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#72

Post by seanmcdirmid »

rqs wrote: post #70
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the property bubble doesn’t pop, you are more screwed as the asset and real economies further diverge. China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. A lot of economic potential is directed toward real estate and away from more productive endeavors. I remember the shops outside of my old office in zhon…

I think what the government is trying to do is to increase people's income, so it can match the level of housing bubble. Many people think it's a goal that is to hard to reach in time (year 2025 or so), but the overall direction is about right. However, all of that is before the trade war thing. So what does the future actually holds is a bigger unknown by now.

That makes no sense and would be much worse than just popping the bubble: either China will be extremely uncompetitive with the rest of the world, or they will deprecate the RMB like crazy.

The property bubble really isn’t worth preserving.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#73

Post by seanmcdirmid »

mistermann wrote: post #68
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the property bubble doesn’t pop, you are more screwed as the asset and real economies further diverge. China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. A lot of economic potential is directed toward real estate and away from more productive endeavors. I remember the shops outside of my old office in zhon…

> China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. "China is Now More Expensive than the USA": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32t8d2eQJAA Almost everyone laughs when I say they should get some of their news from people who actually live in China rather than thinking something needs to be printed in the new…

Note that was a hypothetical: a 70 sqm apartment in Beijing ATM is around $500k, but if the prices keep rising. That is still more expensive than most places in the states, but not more than SF (if you could find such a thing). Beijing isn’t even the most expensive market in China.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#74

Post by maze-le »

hrktb wrote: post #43
charlysl wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, in the west there are constant attempts at gaming the system, and propaganda is as rife as in authoritarian regimes, and this often results in the masses (us) being misinformed. However, I still don't think it's the same as direct censorship, where it's pretty much game over, nor as damaging. I mean, do you really believe that it's irrelevant that the conversation we are having now, without any fears, I assume,…

Disclaimer: I don’t have any experience living in China. With that in mind, from what I get anything political or touching the PRC will be heavily scrutinized, anything else nobody will bat an eye. In that respect, the fact we can discuss this freely is nice. But I’d be cautious to declare we’re freer than them just on that fact alone. I just don’t know. Compound to that, the fact that we went through series of very…

It has an impact on public opinion. It's just that public opinion doesn't have an effect on the policy that is being implemented.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#75

Post by malloryerik »

paradite wrote: post #13
alecco wrote: post #4

The kind of "bad economic news" censored: TABLE-China bond defaults rise over 56 pct from 2017 at $8.74 bln https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-defaults/table...

How about stopping the baseless accusations thrown at China? http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-04-13/do... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2018-08-31/doc-ihinpmn... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-06-15/do... http://bond.jrj.com.cn/2018/09/30133825154607.shtml http://bond.hexun.com/2018-08-01/193639187.html Edit: Looks like I'm being flagged for pointing out the false accus…

Paradite, I upvoted to give some balance. People might be quick to downvote in this case because they've encountered too many nationalist trolls from whichever country, not just China. Not saying that you are a nationalist troll! I imagine that if the topic were about, say, net neutrality or the Patriot Act in the US and I were to write, "Hey how about you guys cut it with the attacks on the US, OK?" I'd be (appropriately) downvoted. Is there anti-PRC bias at HN? I'm not sure and don't think it's easy to know. In any case the very great things the PRC government since Deng has done for the development of China, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty and into a strong position, must be viewed along side everything else, including censorship and importantly now the crackdowns on Uyghurs, I imagine you'd agree. I can't imagine that most members of the HN community would wish it any other way when it came to their own countries. I understand the desire to defend China and the PRC state, especially when people appear to jump to the wrong conclusions and there is anti-Chinese sentiment all around, but that also doesn't mean that the PRC is blameless.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#76

Post by rqs »

mistermann wrote: post #68
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the property bubble doesn’t pop, you are more screwed as the asset and real economies further diverge. China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. A lot of economic potential is directed toward real estate and away from more productive endeavors. I remember the shops outside of my old office in zhon…

> China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. "China is Now More Expensive than the USA": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32t8d2eQJAA Almost everyone laughs when I say they should get some of their news from people who actually live in China rather than thinking something needs to be printed in the new…

From the comment section of that very video, I quote:

> Freda Du: are you guys comparing one of the most expensive chinese cities with the average american (suburban/rural) rent? And comparing fine western dining (cuz apparently you think the $2 chinese meals will kill westerners..) with dollar menu? I lived in Shanghai, LA and NYC, let's make a major city to major city comparison here.. a single metro ride is $0.5 in shanghai vs. $2.75 in NY and $1.75 in LA (which goes nowhere); cellphone bill costs $10 in China and $40+ in the US; you can get food as cheap as $2 in a sit-down restaurant in China, but at least $10+tax&tips in America; have you guys just been living in China for too long and forgot how damn expensive america can be? the small Chinese cities can be dirt cheap too but you guys think it's too inconvenient for people who refuse to speak Chinese. so there you go.

For your reference, I'm living in a small city in China, where ￥15 can supply my diet-mode food for a week, for better diet, that's ￥22 ($3.2 dollar) (Just to clarify, If however I don't want to diet, then that's ￥50~80 or $12 a week). That's even when I buy most of my foods from supermarket[0].

The key point is, you CAN live an expensive life in China if you want to, but you don't HAVE to.

[0] https://i.imgur.com/X9Gm4Zl.jpg

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#78

Post by panarky »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #53
rqs wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy. So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing b…

This has always been true though. The government basically controls the real estate companies, and they won’t list/show your house beneath a certain price. When prices weaken, volume simply plummets as no one can sell because the real estate companies won’t allow for discounting. That isn’t a really a new thing, it has been going on for at least a decade. In many cases, what we have in China is much worse than japan…

Not only in China.

In 2010, the US Securities and Exchange Commission restricted the ability to sell shares short if the share price has declined more than 10%.

https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-26.htm

Curious how there is no equivalent restriction on purchases if the share price has increased by 10%.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#79

Post by slededit »

panarky wrote: post #78
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has always been true though. The government basically controls the real estate companies, and they won’t list/show your house beneath a certain price. When prices weaken, volume simply plummets as no one can sell because the real estate companies won’t allow for discounting. That isn’t a really a new thing, it has been going on for at least a decade. In many cases, what we have in China is much worse than japan…

Not only in China. In 2010, the US Securities and Exchange Commission restricted the ability to sell shares short if the share price has declined more than 10%. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-26.htm Curious how there is no equivalent restriction on purchases if the share price has increased by 10%.

It’s a very temporary restriction not at all comparable. It applies only until the next uptick and is essentially a strengthening of the circuit breaker rules.

These rules are designed to slow trading down on the order of minutes to hours so market participants can catch up and make rational decisions. This is completely different than broad market distortions pervasive in both Japan and China - both in intent and effect.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#80

Post by toss1 »

datavirtue wrote: post #39

Chinese "leaders" are in way over their head trying to direct the economy. Now they don't know what the people really know. Something tells me that clear and open information is the best choice but they have already gone down the rabbit hole.

Yes, and even if the are actually fully informed and very skilled, there are severe limitations on what "management" of press and psychology can do.

In an economy, an excess must eventually be corrected. The problems are that it's a dynamic super-multi-variable system and tends to overshoot in both directions. Ideally, an excess would self-correct soon and gently, but many information loops have too long a lag. Hence, the warning that "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

In cases where the bubble is moderate, 'management' may well keep the psycology from falling too far and overcorrecting, buying time, so that the situation can correct without a crash.

However, it also continues the excess for far longer, and often allowing a far greater degree of excess. So, if the excess breaks through the management, the crash will be _much_ steeper and deeper, overshooting far on the downside.

I'm not sure if the PRC doesn't understand this risk, or if it does and is just in too deep to do anything else.

Either way, it is a seriously growing risk for them and globally.

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