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Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

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Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#21

Post by paganel »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #16
paganel wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In other words: we dug a hole for ourselves with technology, but the only way we can dig ourselves out of it is with more technology I used to be a technofile, at least an internet-ofile, that's for sure, but I kept reading the same and same discourses about how this time things will be different while in reality things were becoming worse and as such I've started changing my mind. > This is pretty much obvious. Ho…

> how this time things will be different while in reality things were becoming worse and as such I've started changing my mind Care to give any examples? Things are almost universally becoming better for most of humanity. Of course, we know a lot of this is unsustainable and will come back to bite us later (unless we develop new techology to cope), but if you compare this year to pretty much any year in the past, thi…

> Care to give any examples?

Global warming correlates pretty well with the Industrial Revolution and with technology's breakthroughs from the last 150 years, give or take.

And the second one, which has started actually scaring me more and more lately, is the rate of insects' decline. A couple of years ago I was commenting on this very website about how I could still see lots of dead insects on my car's windshield after a highway trip, while HN-ers from countries like Germany and Austria couldn't (I live in Eastern Europe), but this summer I've noticed for the first time that I've started seeing the same phenomenon, i.e. my windshield is almost clear from insects now after a highway trip. More than that, my dad (60+, has never accessed the Internet, not an environmentalist by any means) has also started noticing this phenomenon while recently making hay in a remote village close to the Carpathians, he told my brother that there weren't that many insects and bugs anymore compared to other summers (when you're making hay you kind of notice the presence of insects and bugs). My brother confirmed that that is true, but that it's a good thing, as those bugs tended to bite the hay-makers.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#22

Post by charmides »

hrnnnnnn wrote: post #17
tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

Looks like it's getting better in some places, worse in others. I can't see any obvious patterns but you can play with the data here: http://bit.ly/2P5yNKy

Wish this allowed you to see the income proportion of the top 1% and 0.1% too, not just the top 10%.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#23

Post by wnkrshm »

oerpli wrote: post #9
paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

I think the argument is pretty straightforward: You take the following things as premises: a.) Humans tend to reproduce, often above-reproduction level b.) Humans usually tend to optimize their well-being c.) Well-being of individuals of your own species is more important than well-being of other species The first two should be uncontroversial. The third one is not uncontroversial but still the foundation of most leg…

I wouldn't say that your premise a) is uncontroversial - it's estimated that the global population will become stationary by 2050 or 2040, not limited by simply lots of people being born and even more dieing from starvation but a globally decreasing birth rate. I.e. people adapt to the environment by having fewer children, because they don't need as many for their family to survive.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#24

Post by hiccuphippo »

toupeira wrote: post #14
fsloth wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans are a technological species. Hence, to modify our parameters of existence from the materialistic point of view the solutions are technology based. Technology is not just something someone invented - it's an inherent manifestation of the psychology of our species. Hunting patterns? Technology. Better stone tools? Technology. The wheel? Technology. The key to this, is the rare capability among some individuals t…

You forgot the part where we should be able to customize those solutions to our own unique needs and environments, otherwise we're sacrificing personal agency and responsibility to the whims of organizations who very clearly don't always have our best interests in mind. Hoping technology will save us is as foolish as believing Jesus will, both extremes are bad and missing the larger point that humans are far more com…

You don't hope for technology to save you, you make it do it or scrape it and look elsewhere for other technology.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#25

Post by pas »

kilpikaarna wrote: post #20
TeMPOraL wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use) This may be. But then, you have two choices: let humans hit the growth ceiling, which will result in mass starvation and death, or lift the ceiling . Technology is the very thing that allows us to continuously lift the ceiling, so it's obvious that any solution not involving mass murde…

Yes, but: a) the lifting of the ceiling is subject to diminishing returns on resources invested b) once the ceiling has been lifted it will require some continuous expenditure of resources to stay suspended c) the higher the ceiling and the more people there are under it, the worse the crashing down will be if/when that happens.

I don't think he advocates mindless consumption, and blind hope that technology will front run this all-burning-rage of human hubris and reckless hedonism.

We have pretty good predictions about world population. So anyone screaming about exponential growth should STFU and bring real counterarguments to those predictive models (and their results). And second, the ceiling doesn't have to reach the heavens (and once technologies have been "unlocked" they don't really require any expenditure to keep them around), it has to cover those predicted 10-12 billion people.

The solar system has enough resources for trillions of humans. Earth can sustain ~12 billion people almost indefinitely.

That said, yes, without cooperation and foresight there will be a crash. And a next one, and a next one, as long as we are here and we are dumb. Once one of that changes, the crashes will be very much complete black swans. (And we can - to a certain degree - try to buffer reserves to meet those future challenges. But we're unable to keep CO2equiv emissions low enough to reverse warming, so it's a bit too early to worry about black swans.)

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#26

Post by pas »

fsloth wrote: post #19
toupeira wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot the part where we should be able to customize those solutions to our own unique needs and environments, otherwise we're sacrificing personal agency and responsibility to the whims of organizations who very clearly don't always have our best interests in mind. Hoping technology will save us is as foolish as believing Jesus will, both extremes are bad and missing the larger point that humans are far more com…

Sorry, I think we are using the term 'technology' in a different ontological context. I like the brief description "Technology: the methods for using scientific discoveries for practical purposes". I.e. how to apply accrued knowledge practically. The opposites to technology-based problem solving would be trial-and-error, political or ideology based mandates, etc. This does not exclude adaption, nor does it mandate a…

Is trial-and-error outside science? Or do you mean a uniform prior distribution for trial-and-error?

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#27

Post by oerpli »

wnkrshm wrote: post #23
oerpli wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the argument is pretty straightforward: You take the following things as premises: a.) Humans tend to reproduce, often above-reproduction level b.) Humans usually tend to optimize their well-being c.) Well-being of individuals of your own species is more important than well-being of other species The first two should be uncontroversial. The third one is not uncontroversial but still the foundation of most leg…

I wouldn't say that your premise a) is uncontroversial - it's estimated that the global population will become stationary by 2050 or 2040, not limited by simply lots of people being born and even more dieing from starvation but a globally decreasing birth rate. I.e. people adapt to the environment by having fewer children, because they don't need as many for their family to survive.

Indeed, that is correct. Though I think that most people enjoy having children but the economic circumstances and expectations make it hard to have them.

I personally believe that fertility rates will go up again, due to two things:

- YIMBYs (/reason) will prevail and at some point and living in constrained areas will get more affordable - Social expectations will change. Having children in school was a bad idea a few decades ago (when school was from 6-18/20). If the majority of people spend their 20s in some sort of school these social norms have less reason to exist and will likely fade at some point.

And even if I'm wrong in both cases, I would assume that the rising population in southern countries will offset losses in the northern countries.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#28

Post by nouripen »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #6
paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

Frankly, I can't really understand how come people believe what you just wrote. Yes, technology created many problems, but we can't solve them by doing less technology, without reintroducing problems we've already solved. We can either not solve them, or try to solve it with more progress (likely introducing new problems as well). In other words: we dug a hole for ourselves with technology, but the only way we can di…

The person wrote "an improved technology used by the same humans." The last 3 words ("the same humans") is crucial and it's important to charitably interpret what it may mean, so their position makes sense. (And it does make sense.)

Tech is a tool. In our society, tools have owners, wielders and people who commission their making. Tools are designed to have certain benefits and limitations; purposes they amplify and dampen. (For example, DRM is designed to dampen the ability to copy without permission.)

Later, you define tech as "human capability of solving problems and adapting environments". To that, we can add, "And in particular, the constraints we put on that capability." Tech is a massively collaborative venture (from children who mine raw materials, to societies that fund a certain kind of tech and not others). Therefore it's social. Absent "an exponential improvement" in social organization, "an exponential improvement in technology" may just amplify dystopian impulses.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#29

Post by skohan »

hrnnnnnn wrote: post #17
tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

Looks like it's getting better in some places, worse in others. I can't see any obvious patterns but you can play with the data here: http://bit.ly/2P5yNKy

What happened in the late 90's/early 2000's? I notice Canada and Germany have steep increases in that period.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#30

Post by pranau »

puranjay wrote: post #18
paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

> Confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) Your perceptions seem to be colored by your experience in the first world. Statistically, technology-fueled development has helped lift literally billions of people out of acute poverty. When I was young in the 90s, my mom would ask me to give any spare food we had left to the homeless beggars we saw on the s…

In my experience (as an Indian), they ask money primarily for alcohol, cigarettes or drugs and buy food from whatever's left over. They are still not what one would call "nourished" and are pretty malnourished in most instances.
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