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Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

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Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#11

Post by TeMPOraL »

kilpikaarna wrote: post #4
paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

Yep. Been following this guy since he was at Lionhead, and while he's obviously a very very smart guy, it's disappointing that he puts his hope in techno-fixes. To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use), and while technology can be used to tweak the parameters of the growth curve, as it were, the eventual outcome stays more or l…

> To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use)

This may be. But then, you have two choices: let humans hit the growth ceiling, which will result in mass starvation and death, or lift the ceiling. Technology is the very thing that allows us to continuously lift the ceiling, so it's obvious that any solution not involving mass murder will have to come from technology.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#13

Post by vbuwivbiu »

tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

it's still an exponential distribution isn't it ?

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#14

Post by toupeira »

fsloth wrote: post #5
paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

Humans are a technological species. Hence, to modify our parameters of existence from the materialistic point of view the solutions are technology based. Technology is not just something someone invented - it's an inherent manifestation of the psychology of our species. Hunting patterns? Technology. Better stone tools? Technology. The wheel? Technology. The key to this, is the rare capability among some individuals t…

You forgot the part where we should be able to customize those solutions to our own unique needs and environments, otherwise we're sacrificing personal agency and responsibility to the whims of organizations who very clearly don't always have our best interests in mind.

Hoping technology will save us is as foolish as believing Jesus will, both extremes are bad and missing the larger point that humans are far more complicated than we like to admit.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#15

Post by crc32 »

tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

Inequality is not decreasing by all measures, for example: "Income inequality in OECD countries is at its highest level for the past half century." [1]

While it is true that global inequality might be decreasing, localised levels are important, especially when existing in regions which might be considered "economic drivers"; because it has important implications for the stability of those regions, and this is highly likely to affect the continuation of the global trend for reduced inequality.

[1] http://www.oecd.org/social/inequality.htm

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#16

Post by TeMPOraL »

paganel wrote: post #10
TeMPOraL wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly, I can't really understand how come people believe what you just wrote. Yes, technology created many problems, but we can't solve them by doing less technology, without reintroducing problems we've already solved. We can either not solve them, or try to solve it with more progress (likely introducing new problems as well). In other words: we dug a hole for ourselves with technology, but the only way we can di…

> In other words: we dug a hole for ourselves with technology, but the only way we can dig ourselves out of it is with more technology I used to be a technofile, at least an internet-ofile, that's for sure, but I kept reading the same and same discourses about how this time things will be different while in reality things were becoming worse and as such I've started changing my mind. > This is pretty much obvious. Ho…

> how this time things will be different while in reality things were becoming worse and as such I've started changing my mind

Care to give any examples? Things are almost universally becoming better for most of humanity. Of course, we know a lot of this is unsustainable and will come back to bite us later (unless we develop new techology to cope), but if you compare this year to pretty much any year in the past, things are better.

> what you're basically saying is that we have used thing A (technology) to dig ourselves into a very big hole but we will dig ourselves out if only we would keep using the same thing A (albeit in a changed, improved form?)

Yes, because if you're willing to talk about a single "thing A", then this "thing A", or "technology", is literally human capability of solving problems and adapting environments. Viewed like that, there's no other solution by definition.

And yes, I'm sort of saying that. It's easy to think "technology" is just smartphones and cat memes and bullshit SaaS startups. But technology is much more than that. An Internet company isn't going to save us. But small & safe nuclear reactors just might. Breakthroughs in carbon sequestration just might. New farming methods, new fertilizers, new GMOs. Better batteries, better renewables, improved recyclers, might be just enough to stave off the next disaster, to relieve the pressure we've been putting on the environment for the past couple centuries, and start to repair the damage.

Ultimately, what are the alternatives? Doing nothing? Prayer? Mass depopulation (which is also a likely consequence of the prior two)?

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#17

Post by hrnnnnnn »

tomp wrote: post #12

> mass inequality — which is getting worse How can presumably smart people still keep saying this? Inequality is decreasing by all measures! And then I'm supposed to believe any other argument this person makes...

Looks like it's getting better in some places, worse in others. I can't see any obvious patterns but you can play with the data here:

http://bit.ly/2P5yNKy

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#18

Post by puranjay »

paganel wrote: post #2

To be honest, I can't really understand how come there are still people who, when confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say) still believe that an improved technology used by the same humans will make things better. I'm looking at these quotes from the article: > The reason I say that is that if you look at the challenges that confront society: climate…

> Confronted to a world that has been irremediably changed by humans' use of technology (for worst, they say)

Your perceptions seem to be colored by your experience in the first world.

Statistically, technology-fueled development has helped lift literally billions of people out of acute poverty.

When I was young in the 90s, my mom would ask me to give any spare food we had left to the homeless beggars we saw on the streets (in India).

Today, when I try to do the same, they ask for money because they have plenty of food.

How can eradicating hunger not be a good thing?

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#19

Post by fsloth »

toupeira wrote: post #14
fsloth wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans are a technological species. Hence, to modify our parameters of existence from the materialistic point of view the solutions are technology based. Technology is not just something someone invented - it's an inherent manifestation of the psychology of our species. Hunting patterns? Technology. Better stone tools? Technology. The wheel? Technology. The key to this, is the rare capability among some individuals t…

You forgot the part where we should be able to customize those solutions to our own unique needs and environments, otherwise we're sacrificing personal agency and responsibility to the whims of organizations who very clearly don't always have our best interests in mind. Hoping technology will save us is as foolish as believing Jesus will, both extremes are bad and missing the larger point that humans are far more com…

Sorry, I think we are using the term 'technology' in a different ontological context.

I like the brief description "Technology: the methods for using scientific discoveries for practical purposes".

I.e. how to apply accrued knowledge practically.

The opposites to technology-based problem solving would be trial-and-error, political or ideology based mandates, etc.

This does not exclude adaption, nor does it mandate a hierarchical organization to implement the technolgy.

Re: Google DeepMind Founder Demis Hassabis: Three Truths about AI

#20

Post by kilpikaarna »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #11
kilpikaarna wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Been following this guy since he was at Lionhead, and while he's obviously a very very smart guy, it's disappointing that he puts his hope in techno-fixes. To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use), and while technology can be used to tweak the parameters of the growth curve, as it were, the eventual outcome stays more or l…

> To me it seems fairly obvious that the problems our society faces stem from continuous exponential growth (primarily of energy use) This may be. But then, you have two choices: let humans hit the growth ceiling, which will result in mass starvation and death, or lift the ceiling . Technology is the very thing that allows us to continuously lift the ceiling, so it's obvious that any solution not involving mass murde…

Yes, but:

a) the lifting of the ceiling is subject to diminishing returns on resources invested

b) once the ceiling has been lifted it will require some continuous expenditure of resources to stay suspended

c) the higher the ceiling and the more people there are under it, the worse the crashing down will be if/when that happens.

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