SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal • Hacker News Board

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#801

Post by _ea1k » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 12:53 PM UTC

avar wrote: post #403

_ea1k wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm ok with shorts in general, but I do wish that the SEC put at least as much energy into prosecuting some of the bad behavior by some negative parties (who may or may not have been shorts, tbh) as it is the company. I follow the company closely, and have definitely seen some questionable behavior that seemed to be aimed at trying to create the negative news cycle for the business. Things like promoted reddit articl…

Why should the SEC be prosecuting short sellers writing slander about TSLA any more than they should be prosecuting the people who are long on TSLA writing literal or figurative press releases praising the company? Both parties have an interest in the stock going one way or the other. Regulators need to get involved when something like insider manipulation of the stock happens, say when the CEO uses Twitter the way E…

When those statements are blatantly false with a clear intent to do reputational and market damage to the business they become more than simply "short sellers writing slander". When they pay to have them promoted it looks more like fraud.

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#802

Post by greedo » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 12:56 PM UTC

djsumdog wrote: post #68

chollida1 wrote: post #6

This comment I made a few weeks ago is coming alot closer to the truth than I would have expected. I hope for Space X and Tesla's sake that the reports of a directory and Executive ban don't come true. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18016250#18016292 SpaceX is doing well, Tesla has pulled itself back from the brink and may actually become a profitable car company. All Elon had to do was keep his head down and n…

I'd hope the company itself would be fine. I really hate this idea of the grand visionary. A good friend of mine who is a mechanical engineer despises Musk. I listened to a bit of his Joe Regan interview and when Regan asked him how he has the time to do all of the things he does, there are smoke jokes about him being an alien, but not once did he say, "Well I have an amazing team of engineers" and credit all the tho…

Musk told Stanton that he had "one of the world's best engineering teams who normally design spaceships and spacesuits working on this thing 24 hours a day."[1]

[1]https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-reveals-email-thre...

That took all of 1 minute on Google...

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#803

Post by _ea1k » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:15 PM UTC

sergiosgc wrote: post #755

gammateam wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The company won't be fine because it'll be trading at $20 per share. (Yes, $20 is hyperbole, now read the rest) The real issue will be the 2019 bondholder covenants. Tesla won't have the cash to pay them, Tesla won't have the buying interest to absorb dilution, and Tesla will still need money. Basically with a lower and lower share price Tesla has fewer and fewer ways to service its debt and do further fundraising. T…

Tesla's debt servicing cost 600 million yearly (Bill Cunningham estimates). It is producing Model 3s at a pace of 4k weekly (according to Bloomberg). Each represents 15kUSD in gross profit (according to Munro). It takes ten weeks to service the yearly debt using current Model 3 sales. If these numbers are right, once Tesla proved to be able to produce Model 3s, it became financially stable. It will easily be able to…

> Each represents 15kUSD in gross profit (according to Munro).

I was with you on every part but this. It is better to use the company's SEC filings than the Munro report for estimating cash flow per vehicle.

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#804

Post by Symmetry » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:16 PM UTC

kamaal wrote: post #599

Symmetry wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, to quote Mueller: >It’s really— it’s quite a trip, working for Elon. It’s different every day [laughter] because it all depends on what mood he’s in [laughter] — they think he’s joking> You know, he’s been in a great mood lately; we’ve been very successful, and Tesla’s been doing quite well. So it’s been good recently. Um, he still; he’s still extremely demanding. One thing I tell people often is that— I’ve see…

Interesting interview. Where can we read the full version of this?

Here you go: https://zlsadesign.com/post/tom-mueller-interview-2017-05-02...

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#805

Post by anticensor » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:17 PM UTC

dabockster wrote: post #480

jonknee wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not without facing a huge number of lawsuits. If your business plan requires being led by someone the SEC has banned you need a new business plan.

The only countries I could see Tesla moving to, if this plan is followed, are China, Russia, and North Korea. Obviously lawsuits would be the least of their problems if this occurred.

TRNC, San Marino, Svalbard, Transnistria, Monaco too.

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#806

Post by katmai » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:21 PM UTC

ubernostrum wrote: post #332

djsumdog wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd hope the company itself would be fine. I really hate this idea of the grand visionary. A good friend of mine who is a mechanical engineer despises Musk. I listened to a bit of his Joe Regan interview and when Regan asked him how he has the time to do all of the things he does, there are smoke jokes about him being an alien, but not once did he say, "Well I have an amazing team of engineers" and credit all the tho…

I really hate this idea of the grand visionary. Which is amusing in the case of Musk. As I've said over and over, his approach is to find an industry where most or all of the hard, expensive fundamental R&D has already been done (and paid for) by someone else, and then start a company to incrementally improve it and promise vast cost reductions from economies of scale. That's what SpaceX is. That's what Tesla is. The…

If it's that easy why didn't you do it then? We should have plenty of competitors to SpaceX and Tesla with loads of reusable rockets and amazing self driving cars RIGHT NOW if everything seems so trivial in your opinion. Any dumbass can do it, including you! Time to get dirty and stack up on those millions of $ since things are so easy to pull off.

That's why Elon sleeps under the desk and works 18 hours a day because it's all very very easy.

I almost forgot how easy it was to sit on the sideline and critique someone else's work :) It's cute.

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#807

Post by vinceguidry » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:23 PM UTC

wbl wrote: post #740

gammateam wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The company won't be fine because it'll be trading at $20 per share. (Yes, $20 is hyperbole, now read the rest) The real issue will be the 2019 bondholder covenants. Tesla won't have the cash to pay them, Tesla won't have the buying interest to absorb dilution, and Tesla will still need money. Basically with a lower and lower share price Tesla has fewer and fewer ways to service its debt and do further fundraising. T…

Then the bondowners end up restructuring and owning a valuable company.

Tesla would almost assuredly not be a fraction as valuable with bondholders running it as they would with Musk at the helm. The company's fortunes are inextricably bound up with the founder. The only thing the bondholders are likely to do with the business if they find themselves owning it outright is liquidate. A fact that is quite likely being taken into account in the current market brinksmanship imbroglio.

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#808

Post by andrepd » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:23 PM UTC

djsumdog wrote: post #68

chollida1 wrote: post #6

This comment I made a few weeks ago is coming alot closer to the truth than I would have expected. I hope for Space X and Tesla's sake that the reports of a directory and Executive ban don't come true. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18016250#18016292 SpaceX is doing well, Tesla has pulled itself back from the brink and may actually become a profitable car company. All Elon had to do was keep his head down and n…

I'd hope the company itself would be fine. I really hate this idea of the grand visionary. A good friend of mine who is a mechanical engineer despises Musk. I listened to a bit of his Joe Regan interview and when Regan asked him how he has the time to do all of the things he does, there are smoke jokes about him being an alien, but not once did he say, "Well I have an amazing team of engineers" and credit all the tho…

I'm in the same camp. I'm going to be happy if at the end of this we've managed to get a better (cleaner, safer, more reliable, cheaper) car or a better rocket or whatever, but I don't buy the whole "rocket jesus" worshipping, like I don't buy the whole guru worshipping in startup culture in general.

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#809

Post by hef19898 » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:26 PM UTC

DennisP wrote: post #787

hef19898 wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is the only serious private company. And without government launches they would have a hard time as well. In the de-facto public sector you have the Russians, Ariane, the Chinese, the Indians... It's not that there wouldn't be anything in space without SpaceX. The thing I love about SpaceX is how they showed what can be done without the over abundance of bureaucracy you see elsewhere. Not that programs like Ar…

What's really different about SpaceX is the cost of launch. Governments and their contractors are happy to launch your stuff into space for thousands of dollars per pound, but nobody was putting significant work into reusable rockets. Just a reusable first stage drops the cost by about 80%, and the BFR is supposed to take the cost down to about $50/lb once it's flying at high volume. That completely changes what we'r…

Refcently I stumbled over an article regarding SpaceX cost structure raising the theory that commercial launches are subsidized by government launches. Also that reusing stages is not such a relevant cost driver. I simply don't know enough about rocket technology and costs to actually judge the validity of these points, but they seemd plausible. As this point is coming up regularly I really have to take a deper look SpaceX costs and launch costs in general.

Re: SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal

#810

Post by api » Fri, Sep 28, 2018, 1:31 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #657

api wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Musk never happened rockets would still be expendable, the US would still lack a Shuttle replacement, and EVs would be rare or nonexistent. We would still be talking about how personal mobility is doomed when oil is depleted, if not all of modern civilization. Prove me wrong. Who else was doing this stuff before SpaceX and Tesla? On space launch you had nothing serious except the SLS which is 70s tech. On EVs you…

A agree wizh you on the Tesla part, there Musk really forced very positive development. One could argue of course if that development wouldn't have taken place as well without Tesla. But even then it is clear that Musk / Tesla moved things along a lot faster. SpaceX is an incredible achievement. The reusable rockets are a point I really need to dig deeper into, especially the financial aspects of it. Because there a…

I think Musk sometimes does get too much credit, but the opposite -- that he deserves none and is a fraud -- is equally ridiculous.

Gwynne Shotwell deserves a lot of credit for leading SpaceX in its day-to-day operations. Without her I doubt it would be working as well. Everyone else on these teams also deserves a great deal of credit. They are teams, of course.

On SpaceX being government funded -- yes, that's true to an extent, though they have made a lot of money off private satellite launches too. The fact is that the entire aerospace industry has been deeply embedded with the military and other government agencies since its inception. It's a very heavily subsidized and regulated industry.

But team building and capital raising is a skill, and Musk seems good at it -- at least at the beginning. He's great at getting things off the ground (pun intended?) and breaking through barriers of technological learned helplessness. I do get the sense though that he's less of an effective leader as things get more established. Tesla's problems are too boring for him at this point.