301–310 of 385 posts
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> Protecting elections may mean ending winner take all electoral college system. I think 2016 proved that the electoral college is not supplying the adult oversight that the founders intended.
Or maybe it is, and the adults actually won.
This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…
Even though the US are China's biggest trading partner, US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% of China's total trade. China is still trading with other countries. While it may take a hit from US companies pulling some manufacturing out of China, some of those will be replaced by other - both Chinese and foreign - companies. Especially other foreign companies operating in China will profit from reduced competition f…
2) China has little with which to retaliate. They can do whatever they want to 'American farmers' it won't matter because it's just a commodity: China will buy it's soy beans from Brazil, and Brazil's other customers will buy from the US. It'll have a null effect.
China is right now creating the biggest debt bubble the world has ever seen and it's scary - we don't know where they are going to go next.
See, in 2004 they had so much upside in front of them - but now ... it's not so clear.
I think we're going to see China grow at a more regular rate of 4% and that in the end, nothing existential will come of this trade war. It will hurt China a little worse than the US but it's not like we're going to see a fundamental shift in anything.
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> I can buy many products cheaper in the US than in China Would you list some examples of that products, please?
All “foreign” products even those which are manufactured in China have a foreign goods tax of 25% some have additional taxes beyond that. China doesn’t want foreign companies selling cheap goods in China so essentially everything needs to be imported even if it’s manufactured down the street from you in China.
It is possible to buy good products cheap. But there you need to be smart, smarter than I am, and have contacts. A sub contractor might sell excess product under the table for cheap if you know where to find it (I don't).
chinalawblog.com had an article why you should always have your production samples shipped to you and never have any sample batch "destroyed" by your manufacturer. They may just sell it under the table. So you may be able to buy a REAL Gucci bag that was designed by Gucci bad was never available on the market with this kind of design. Really rare. :-)
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I’m sure you are right that the Chinese cheat, but a fair and equitable free trade system must be based on rules and independent arbitration. Trump is doing everything he can to undermine and destroy every vestige of a rules based independently arbitrated global trade system. His policies are explicitly stated to be purely in US interests only, by him personally. That’s not the basis for a free trade system. Finger p…
" Trump is doing everything he can to undermine and destroy every vestige of a rules based independently arbitrated global trade system" I'm sorry but China is flagrantly violating so many of it's own agreements. The IP agreements of the WTO for one. There would be little fuss if China was sticking to it's own agreements.
This alone would be very "un-chinese". A signed contract in China is always a contract in negotiation. Can change any time.
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This requires trade to be zero sum. It’s not. Even if we “win” the trade war we can lose if not having done it at all was better.
Honest question, how would we lose in that scenario?
Trade is usually 'win win'. So when there's less trade, there's less 'winning' on both sides.
Imagine if Chia is the sole source of Silk, and the US is the sole source of Rubber.
If the US 'wins' a trade war with China by doing more damage to then, but there is less trade ... well then there is unmet/latent demand in the US for Silk and in China for Rubber that is not met, which is an economic loss.
That said - trade needs to be in fair terms or it doesn't work. If one side cheats, they can suck all of the 'win' out of the 'win win' for themselves.
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Trump has countered the soybean attack by handing out subsidies to soybean farmers.
Meantime, other soybean manufacturers will dial up production, so when the tariffs are dropped by China, the US soybean manufacturers will be selling to an oversupplied market, dropping the price. And given the US subsidies will almost certainly go when the Chinese tariffs do, the risk to the US soybean industry has only been postponed, rather than countered.
The demand for Soybeans globally has not changed.
Tariffs in China really will just mean that buyers and sellers will shift around.
Chinese will now buy Soy from Brazil, thus avoiding tariffs, and rather than buying more expensive Soy beans from Brazil (because of more demand), those other buyers will shift to buy from the US.
Chinese tariffs on commodity goods won't have an effect if there a good number of buyers and suppliers.
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" Trump is doing everything he can to undermine and destroy every vestige of a rules based independently arbitrated global trade system" I'm sorry but China is flagrantly violating so many of it's own agreements. The IP agreements of the WTO for one. There would be little fuss if China was sticking to it's own agreements.
"There would be little fuss if China was sticking to it's own agreements. " This alone would be very "un-chinese". A signed contract in China is always a contract in negotiation. Can change any time.
If they don't respect IP, we shouldn't respect theirs.
If they respect ours, we respect theirs.
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I’m sure you are right that the Chinese cheat, but a fair and equitable free trade system must be based on rules and independent arbitration. Trump is doing everything he can to undermine and destroy every vestige of a rules based independently arbitrated global trade system. His policies are explicitly stated to be purely in US interests only, by him personally. That’s not the basis for a free trade system. Finger p…
I don't understand your argument. And if they Chinese tax US cars with 25% and the US taxes them with 2.5% (or was it 5%)? then it is reasonable to request equal tariffs.
I have little to no sympathy for China, but I do believe in equitable free trade based on consensus, a common rulebook and independent arbitration. It's served us very well and even with Chinese protectionism, which they have been gradually rolling back, the US and the rest of the world has profited from it. The economic issues in the West over the last 10 years were entirely home-grown and if anything trade with China has been a resilient economic buffer that's helped us cope with the financial crisis (if unintentionally). Blaming them for all our woes is just a distraction.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m sure you are right that the Chinese cheat, but a fair and equitable free trade system must be based on rules and independent arbitration. Trump is doing everything he can to undermine and destroy every vestige of a rules based independently arbitrated global trade system. His policies are explicitly stated to be purely in US interests only, by him personally. That’s not the basis for a free trade system. Finger p…
" Trump is doing everything he can to undermine and destroy every vestige of a rules based independently arbitrated global trade system" I'm sorry but China is flagrantly violating so many of it's own agreements. The IP agreements of the WTO for one. There would be little fuss if China was sticking to it's own agreements.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even though the US are China's biggest trading partner, US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% of China's total trade. China is still trading with other countries. While it may take a hit from US companies pulling some manufacturing out of China, some of those will be replaced by other - both Chinese and foreign - companies. Especially other foreign companies operating in China will profit from reduced competition f…
"The US will have to bootstrap a lot of manufacturing to replace Chinese labor." They just have to move to cheaper countries to replace Chinese labor. One time upfront asset cost, but lower expense over time. "US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% China's total trade" Once China is not part of the trade flow between US and X country (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc), the total trade for China will fall even more th…