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China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

nytimes.com

211–220 of 385 posts

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#211
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump could easily destory the wto or declare it irrelevant to the us. Similar to his reaction to the icj.

Every president has declared the ICJ irrelevant. The Pentagon would send tanks to the White House if a President so much as hinted at accepting ICJ jurisdiction. And in any event, the U.S. doesn't dispute the usefulness of the ICJ or its jurisdiction over other countries, it just disputes the usefulness of the U.S. being subject to ICJ jurisdiction. By contrast, the WTO deeply matters to the wealth and security of th…

I meant ICC anyhow.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though the US are China's biggest trading partner, US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% of China's total trade. China is still trading with other countries. While it may take a hit from US companies pulling some manufacturing out of China, some of those will be replaced by other - both Chinese and foreign - companies. Especially other foreign companies operating in China will profit from reduced competition f…

"The US will have to bootstrap a lot of manufacturing to replace Chinese labor." They just have to move to cheaper countries to replace Chinese labor. One time upfront asset cost, but lower expense over time. "US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% China's total trade" Once China is not part of the trade flow between US and X country (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc), the total trade for China will fall even more th…

> They just have to move to cheaper countries to replace Chinese labor.

You also have to factor in though that one of Trump's stated goals is to bring manufacturing back to the US.

Any company removing itself from China to a place with cheaper labour risks Trump implementing similar measures against that country at some point in the future also.

And does the company uproot its manufacturing again and again or does it just move operations back to the US, taking advantage of tax incentives to do so.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#213
I am not a big fan of what’s happening in China but what do you expect them to do at this point? If they let the SV firms come and do business as usual, China is not going to last. Sure, it really doesn’t help that the govt is “investing” in questionable areas and aiding in tech “transfer”. But this whole notion of opening its doors wide open is never going to happen. A billion people effectively slaved through the past two decades and you expect them to just give that away? I think China has all the advantages against Trump. All that said, what this administration is doing to confront China is amateurish at best.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well for both countries the export to each other is only a fraction of their economy...China is not what it is used to be.

Exports / Imports, % of GDP, 2016 Source: National Accounts at a Glance https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-goods-and-services.htm Imports | Exports China 17% | 20% US 15% | 12% China seems to be at a fair disadvantage on exports dependence, but you're right, China is far less export dependent than one might think. The devil is in the details of course, but I'd venture a guess that US imports would tend to be more d…

Keep in mind much of china's trade with other nations is based upon the presence of US corporation's manufacturing and supply chains.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a commonly espoused narrative. I’m sure there were synergies in steel and auto production in US cities connected by rail between Pennsylvania and Michigan. I’d say the key misunderstanding is that you’re conflating China with “markets” in “it took China roughly two decades to build this kind of ecosystem.” If you read it as, “Markets took two decades to build this kind of ecosystem,” it should be clear that t…

The Shenzhen special sauce is the high density of complimentary industries and specialized workforce. It's certainly possible to replicate, but history has shown that it can be difficult. It would be like trying to supplant Hollywood.

That’s the worst possible example, because they truly don’t make cultural products like movies and music almost anywhere but Los Angeles.

If it was about market forces, writers would get paid a bajillion times more. On the contrary, they’re paid terribly, relative to the value their product provides. Same with visual effects artists, just not as bad.

Or music: an ecosystem unmatched anywhere but in LA. Even all those Swedish pop artists wind up there.

Before you google counterexamples, just ask someone who actually works in film or music. You can’t just throw money at “it.” What seems to make good writers and musicians concentrate in LA doesn’t seem to be 100% governed by conventional market forces.

Yes, it’s been difficult to replicate Hollywood! I think experiments with subsidies like for VFX in Vancouver, documentaries in Massachusetts and everything in Savannah, Georgia are interesting and nurture communities at different rates of success.

In contrast, Wisconsin gives a $3 billion handout to Foxconn, Wisconsin gets a Foxconn factory. Because it will save money, things adjacent to the plant will be built.

Writers cost nothing! There’s no money to save by locating them in LA, the savings on airfare and lodging and communications for a literal single human being is de minimus compared to the budget of a feature film.

The scary thing about Shenzhen is all the applause for abstract things like skilled workforces and no appreciation for how different that “IP” is in comparison to e.g. Disney IP, like Mickey Mouse. They are not at all the same knowledge economies, electrical engineering and films.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#216

A couple of points I’d like to add to your post. Japan was able to endure a lost decade(s) due to immense social solidarity that few countries, perhaps even the US, possess. China is known as an unusually fragile country in some ways due to its tendency to break up or devolve into Afghanistan-like warlordism. A collapse of their economy, which seems probable at some point after 40 years of malinvestment, will crush a…

> Japan was able to endure a lost decade(s) due to immense social solidarity that few countries, perhaps even the US, possess.

Your points make no sense. Civil war, countries breaking up etc. almost always happen only when people's basic needs (food, water, clothing, heat, electricity) are not being met. Even during its lost decade, Japan has been a top 25 country by per-capita income.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a dramatic price impact in the context of Apple products. 5%? 10%? Would that really stop you? They keep hiking the prices anyway.

for iPhone, maybe it's just 10%, what about the other staff you need to buy daily? Do you count how many staff you using are Made In China right now?

Nationwide ~1/5th of US imports come directly from China, that’s bumped a little when countries manufacture with Chinease parts but stays well under 1/4th of US imports and ~1/37th the US GDP.

Personally, I get very little directly or indirectly from China based on my shopping habits it’s mostly electronic gifts.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#218

This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…

Even though the US are China's biggest trading partner, US trade "only" accounts for about ~18% of China's total trade. China is still trading with other countries. While it may take a hit from US companies pulling some manufacturing out of China, some of those will be replaced by other - both Chinese and foreign - companies. Especially other foreign companies operating in China will profit from reduced competition f…

> And the rest of the world will profit from having two major players intentionally cripple each other.

We won’t profit from having our two best customers/ suppliers cripple each other.

And, copycat politicians are already watching closely to see how many votes this buys.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would no doubt be disruptive, temporarily. And it would also prompt a multi hundred billion dollar redirection of investment into moving those supply lines to other countries. Vietnam would love to get some more of China's tech manufacturing action, as would a dozen other developing countries. Others would welcome gains to be had in apparel or autos by moves like that by China. One of the biggest problems China ha…

I’m not sure. Tim Cook seemed to suggest the iPhone couldn’t be manufactured anywhere else.

Tim Cool spoke to that: " "There's a confusion about China. The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I'm not sure what part of China they go to but the truth is China stopped being the low labor cost country many years ago. And that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view. The reason is because of the skill, and the quantity of skill in one location and the type of skill it is."

And China has an abundance of skilled labor unseen elsewhere, says Cook:

"The products we do require really advanced tooling, and the precision that you have to have, the tooling and working with the materials that we do are state of the art. And the tooling skill is very deep here. In the US you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I'm not sure we could fill the room. In China you could fill multiple football fields." "

https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/apple-ceo-tim-cook-this-...

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#220

This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…

The Party won't let anything that will lead to (10) happen. Growth=staying in power, this is the fundamental belief from which all their actions are derived. Facing a bad deal and losing face, they'll certainly choose a bad deal--they have a powerful propaganda machine to paint it as a good deal anyway, at least domestically.
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