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The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

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Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#101

Post by rossdavidh »

beat wrote: post #20
TomK32 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I though lead paint and lead in gasoline was a good candidate for the blip?

Pinker attributes it to cultural shifts, not causes like lead paint. I googled and found his discussion of the subject. It's worth reading. https://quod.lib.umich.edu/h/humfig/11217607.0002.206/--deci...

I really liked Pinker's book, but that was imho one of the weaker sections. For one thing, it more or less says that violence dropped because of "cultural shifts", which is more or less a description of what happened, not an explanation.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#102

Post by xienze »

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

>It's shocking to me, maybe I'm naive, how quickly the changes in law get exploited to the maximum.

It shouldn’t be shocking. The people who push this sort of feel-good legislation always, always, always fail to think about how these policies can be exploited or handwave away such concerns by assuming that the number of people who would do so is vanishingly small.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#103

Post by pvarangot »

nostrademons wrote: post #33
docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

Property crime is rampant in a lot of the Bay Area. Violent crime has hit historic lows. I've learned to never keep valuables in your car and always lock your doors, but I also feel safe walking around in a number of places that historically have had really bad reputations, like even the Tenderloin. I wouldn't be so quick to blame changes in laws, though. In my experience, property crime is up because the police don'…

So if I get mugged and want the police involved I'm incentivized to actually act with reasonable force (like, for example, trying to force my stuff back from the assailant) in order for the police to get involved and me get my stuff back?

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#104

Post by johnm1019 »

ryandrake wrote: post #45
lifeformed wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putting a kid in there almost feels like a purposeful reinforcement of the same behavior. It feels like society is saying, "Oh, you're looking for a career in crime? Let's put you in crime college for a few years so that you'll be better prepared for your new life of crime when you get out."

Also, our society is set up so that once you are labeled a criminal, that label sticks with you for the rest of your life. Many aspects of legitimate law-abiding life, particularly employment and housing, get harder once you’ve been convicted of something, even after you’ve served your time. Every application that asks for your criminal history or “have you ever been convicted” cements this class distinction. If we w…

Evidently there are many people who agree with you. One of them founded, and now many support an awesome foundation called the Delancey Street Foundation. It is in San Francisco (and now other places). They provide housing and employment, via their own internal businesses, which employ those they are helping to reintegrate into society. Their cafe and restaurant are really great if you're in the neighborhood in San Francisco! Their story of starting with a small house and growing into a block-sized complex is really inspiring!

http://www.delanceystreetfoundation.org/

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#105

Post by UpshotKnothole »

nostrademons wrote: post #33
docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

Property crime is rampant in a lot of the Bay Area. Violent crime has hit historic lows. I've learned to never keep valuables in your car and always lock your doors, but I also feel safe walking around in a number of places that historically have had really bad reputations, like even the Tenderloin. I wouldn't be so quick to blame changes in laws, though. In my experience, property crime is up because the police don'…

As far as I can tell California is right in the middle of 50 states in terms of property crime (a little below actually at 26th-27th) [1] so I’m not sure where this doom and gloom is coming from. Well, I did find a few laughable articles from mass media claiming that prop 47 had some impact, it itmdoesnt hold up when looking at demographics across the country and over a long time.

http://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/

In 2016 it looks like property crime actually decreased.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_California

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#106

Post by chrisbrandow »

Not a single mention of the continually corroborated elemental lead hypothesis.

Rick Nevin specifically calls out the juvenile crime/incarceration rate as the canary in the coal mine.

Whether one agrees that it’s correct or not, it certainly deserves a mention

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#107

Post by fipple »

rectang wrote: post #23
yardie wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tough on crime has gone out of style. We had our primaries recently and only a few conservative dinosaurs even mentioned ToC in their voter biography. Most of the candidates running for AD, circuit judge, and other legal offices were drumming up their crime intervention bonafides.

Voter suppression through felony disenfranchisement, however, remains en vogue. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/09/florida... "In Florida, more than 21 percent of black adults are disenfranchised because of this policy."

Maybe don’t commit felonies?

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#108

Post by fipple »

This is where Singapore style caning can be much more humane than incarceration without throwing the whole city to the dogs. A few minutes of searing agony, a few days of recovery, a lifelong lesson to never do that shit again, without putting you in crime college or preventing you from ever getting a job again.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#109

Post by [deleted] »

pvarangot wrote: post #103
nostrademons wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Property crime is rampant in a lot of the Bay Area. Violent crime has hit historic lows. I've learned to never keep valuables in your car and always lock your doors, but I also feel safe walking around in a number of places that historically have had really bad reputations, like even the Tenderloin. I wouldn't be so quick to blame changes in laws, though. In my experience, property crime is up because the police don'…

So if I get mugged and want the police involved I'm incentivized to actually act with reasonable force (like, for example, trying to force my stuff back from the assailant) in order for the police to get involved and me get my stuff back?

[deleted]

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#110

Post by erikpukinskis »

manfredo wrote: post #72
dwaltrip wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What incentives cause police to care about stumbling drunk people but not petty theft or property crimes? Are they rewarded for arresting drunk people?

The city refuses to enforce property crimes. Even if the police make an arrest, nothing comes out of it. Many residents consider it to be "criminalizing poverty", thus it is socially unacceptable to enforce property crimes. Sure, there are specific roles (e.g. the District Attorney) that have control over this, but they answer to city hall, and they respond to voters' desires. Ultimately it's on us residents for how…

I think it starts with the fact that being penniless is illegal. You can’t poop, you can’t build shelter. You can’t vend small items like snacks or clothing. All of that is illegal. So poverty truly is illegal in SF.

So, the poor will be criminalized regardless of whether they steal, what’s their incentive not to steal? From their perspective, they’re already criminals for not being rich, why not act like it?

Add to that the fact that most plots of land were illegally seized and resold. So from a moral perspective the landowners in SF are criminals too.

The city needs to take those issues seriously before they can reasonably expect the poor to cease their mischief. Without a navigable legal framework for the poor to subsist, and without a property court committed to restitution of stolen land, I don’t see how we can in good faith demand people refrain from stealing iPhones.

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