The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted • Hacker News Board

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#11

Post by shawn » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:07 PM UTC

squirrelicus wrote: post #7

Anyone have any evidence that suggests this is because there are fewer juveniles that should be in prison, or if we're imprisoning more accurately, or there are more juvneiles that aren't in prison but should be? There's a lot of nuance here and I haven't found any good data on what caused the change -- just political bloviation

Another possibility is that lead has been removed from the ecosystem, leading to less violence.

It's probably worth being skeptical of that hypothesis, since it seems too perfect, but it does exist.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#12

Post by king_panic » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:09 PM UTC

VICE's "Raised in the System" feature on juvenile prisioners shows how detrimental sending kids away to juvenile detention centers is. They are 30 times more likely to be sent to prisons as adults, completely unequipped to integrate back into society when they return from detention and the crimes they're sent away for can mostly be explained by adolescent tendencies that most people grow out of.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#13

Post by lostlogin » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:10 PM UTC

shawn wrote: post #11

squirrelicus wrote: post #7

Anyone have any evidence that suggests this is because there are fewer juveniles that should be in prison, or if we're imprisoning more accurately, or there are more juvneiles that aren't in prison but should be? There's a lot of nuance here and I haven't found any good data on what caused the change -- just political bloviation

Another possibility is that lead has been removed from the ecosystem, leading to less violence. It's probably worth being skeptical of that hypothesis, since it seems too perfect, but it does exist.

And it’s a good read too. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#14

Post by lostlogin » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:12 PM UTC

beat wrote: post #3

Steven Pinker talks about the root causes for this in Better Angels of Our Nature . He argues that crime has been trending steadily downward for centuries. There was a blip of increasing crime, at odds with the trends, that lasted from about the early 1960s to the late 1980s, and he offers some explanations for that blip. But in general, crime should continue to fall. The US homocide rate has been dropping steadily s…

Drum’s story has a good summary too. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#15

Post by 40acres » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:17 PM UTC

squirrelicus wrote: post #7

Anyone have any evidence that suggests this is because there are fewer juveniles that should be in prison, or if we're imprisoning more accurately, or there are more juvneiles that aren't in prison but should be? There's a lot of nuance here and I haven't found any good data on what caused the change -- just political bloviation

If you look at the data, in general America's youth has been "doing better" compared to the 80s and 90s. High school graduation rates are up [0], juvenile crime is down [1], teenage pregnancy is down [2], tobacco use was down for a long time but is seeing an uptick due to e-cigs [3]. Generally the youth population is doing better and I think that all reflects in the detention rate.

0: https://www.usnews.com/high-schools/best-high-schools/articl...

1: https://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/crime/JAR_Display.asp?ID=qa05...

2: https://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/adolescent-development/reproduct...

3: https://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/adolescent-development/substance...

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#16

Post by docker_up » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:17 PM UTC

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the police in SF don't even respond. It's shocking to me, maybe I'm naive, how quickly the changes in law get exploited to the maximum.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#17

Post by lifeformed » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:19 PM UTC

king_panic wrote: post #12

VICE's "Raised in the System" feature on juvenile prisioners shows how detrimental sending kids away to juvenile detention centers is. They are 30 times more likely to be sent to prisons as adults, completely unequipped to integrate back into society when they return from detention and the crimes they're sent away for can mostly be explained by adolescent tendencies that most people grow out of.

Putting a kid in there almost feels like a purposeful reinforcement of the same behavior. It feels like society is saying, "Oh, you're looking for a career in crime? Let's put you in crime college for a few years so that you'll be better prepared for your new life of crime when you get out."

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#18

Post by icantdrive55 » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:19 PM UTC

debacle wrote: post #4

"Tough on Crime" is no longer en vogue in most parts of the US. That likely has a huge impact.

Along with more cameras.

Along with DNA analysis.

The poor, and disenfranchised can't commit crimes. It's a negative sum game. Only the very stupid, or very despirate can take the risk.

Now--the wealthy can run their white collar crimes without too much risk. It's not just white collar crime either. They can afford to drive drunk, speed, and pretty much do whatever their id spits out? They cannot pay taxes, and use that professional degree to fleece the poor, and uninformed?

Hell--they can pretty much do whatever they want? They own the regulators that control the system.

(I'm just pointing out that cameras, and science might have played a big part in the reduction if crime. Only the wealthy, can still play fast, and loose. And yes--I'm hard on all crime. It's too bad we can't tie fees/fines to income? We just might have a further drop in crime?)

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#19

Post by pkaye » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:22 PM UTC

lostlogin wrote: post #14

beat wrote: post #3

Steven Pinker talks about the root causes for this in Better Angels of Our Nature . He argues that crime has been trending steadily downward for centuries. There was a blip of increasing crime, at odds with the trends, that lasted from about the early 1960s to the late 1980s, and he offers some explanations for that blip. But in general, crime should continue to fall. The US homocide rate has been dropping steadily s…

Drum’s story has a good summary too. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

When did other countries reduce lead exposure. Does their crime statistics correspond to this decision?

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#20

Post by beat » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:22 PM UTC

TomK32 wrote: post #8

beat wrote: post #3

Steven Pinker talks about the root causes for this in Better Angels of Our Nature . He argues that crime has been trending steadily downward for centuries. There was a blip of increasing crime, at odds with the trends, that lasted from about the early 1960s to the late 1980s, and he offers some explanations for that blip. But in general, crime should continue to fall. The US homocide rate has been dropping steadily s…

I though lead paint and lead in gasoline was a good candidate for the blip?

Pinker attributes it to cultural shifts, not causes like lead paint.

I googled and found his discussion of the subject. It's worth reading. https://quod.lib.umich.edu/h/humfig/11217607.0002.206/--deci...