The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted • Hacker News Board

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#31

Post by dv_dt » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:35 PM UTC

squirrelicus wrote: post #7

Anyone have any evidence that suggests this is because there are fewer juveniles that should be in prison, or if we're imprisoning more accurately, or there are more juvneiles that aren't in prison but should be? There's a lot of nuance here and I haven't found any good data on what caused the change -- just political bloviation

One also wonders how a few high profile prosecutions of judges referencing kids to prison for kickbacks might have had an effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kids_for_cash_scandal

Another reference showed "peak juvenile incarceration" at ~100k kids, and 2000 cases were identified in this scandal alone, so 2% of the peak population were touched directly - and this was the most publicized incidence.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#32

Post by fludlight » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

dv_dt wrote: post #28

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

That sounds more like a problem with the police, and not a problem with the law.

It's a problem with the law. Prop 47, specifically.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_47_(201...

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#33

Post by nostrademons » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

Property crime is rampant in a lot of the Bay Area. Violent crime has hit historic lows. I've learned to never keep valuables in your car and always lock your doors, but I also feel safe walking around in a number of places that historically have had really bad reputations, like even the Tenderloin.

I wouldn't be so quick to blame changes in laws, though. In my experience, property crime is up because the police don't do anything when they get a report of a theft or burglary. If there's a fight, drug deal, or even just a drunk person stumbling around, the police will be out in force. If somebody got robbed, well, good luck, they'll take your statement and then you're on your own.

Now, perhaps that has to do with incentives and the police knowing that the offender isn't going to jail even if they pick him up for burglary. But it seems like there could still be a healthy middle ground where property crime offenses still result in fines, restitution, community service, and probation without needing to lock kids up in prison.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#34

Post by danmg » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

matkins wrote: post #25

phobosdeimos wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It costs a cool million to throw a kid in jail so the numbers add up. But dont worry when the economy goes South again the prison industry will be back with their promise to provide jobs.

So maybe make throwing someone in jail not cost a million.

That's how we ended up with private prisons which in turn has a profit motive to lobby to criminalize more things so they make more money.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#35

Post by Obi_Juan_Kenobi » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:37 PM UTC

TomK32 wrote: post #8

beat wrote: post #3

Steven Pinker talks about the root causes for this in Better Angels of Our Nature . He argues that crime has been trending steadily downward for centuries. There was a blip of increasing crime, at odds with the trends, that lasted from about the early 1960s to the late 1980s, and he offers some explanations for that blip. But in general, crime should continue to fall. The US homocide rate has been dropping steadily s…

I though lead paint and lead in gasoline was a good candidate for the blip?

Lead and Roe v Wade are often discussed, but it's one of those issues that's really hard to gain confidence about any particular explanation. It appears likely that both played a role, but to what extent is more difficult to say.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#36

Post by pnw_hazor » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:39 PM UTC

dv_dt wrote: post #28

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

That sounds more like a problem with the police, and not a problem with the law.

Prosecutors decide whether to charge. Cops quickly learn that arresting people that will not be charged is a waste of their time.

Seattle has a similar policy. Property crimes are not enforced.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#37

Post by pnw_hazor » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:40 PM UTC

supernovae wrote: post #2

I'm willing to bet decriminalization of weed is a huge factor of keeping kids out of prison. Just hope we continue to learn how to build a system that restores dignity, treats the causes of criminal activity and focuses on keeping people out of the system. Hard to do when many prisons are moving to for-profit private facilities.

Decriminalization of property crime probably helps too.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#38

Post by Obi_Juan_Kenobi » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:42 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

Prop 47 happened at the end of 2014, while the trend on those charts started at least 10 years ago. If anything, it looks like 2015 was a notably bad year with little decrease over the previous year.

There doesn't seem to be anything to support that idea.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#39

Post by dv_dt » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:42 PM UTC

pnw_hazor wrote: post #36

dv_dt wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds more like a problem with the police, and not a problem with the law.

Prosecutors decide whether to charge. Cops quickly learn that arresting people that will not be charged is a waste of their time. Seattle has a similar policy. Property crimes are not enforced.

Ok this still seems like a problem with enforcement and not with the law. We should not need increased sentences simply to get police protection from nuisance behavior. Undue inflation of consequences for smaller crimes has many negative side effects for our society - including increased cost of incarceration and long-term negative productivity of citizens. This is why these crimes were reduced in their sentencing - it seems like enforcement needs to catch up on a new balance.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#40

Post by openasocket » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:48 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

Just because something is a misdemeanor doesn't mean nothing happens. If you are convicted with a misdemeanor you still cam get a fine, community service, probation (and violating parole IS a felony), and even a jail sentence of up to 12 months. For theft of less than $1000 that sounds like a perfectly reasonable punishment.

I don't know why police aren't responding to these calls, but it's not because those committing these crimes aren't going to face a (reasonable) punishment.