The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted • Hacker News Board

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#21

Post by phobosdeimos » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:23 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

It costs a cool million to throw a kid in jail so the numbers add up.

But dont worry when the economy goes South again the prison industry will be back with their promise to provide jobs.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#22

Post by snambi » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:24 PM UTC

komali2 wrote: post #10

>No one painted this portrait so well as John Dilulio, the criminologist who popularized the term. A self-styled tough researcher, he surveyed juvenile prisons, where he saw “vacant stares and smiles” and “remorseless eyes” staring back at him. These kids “pack guns instead of lunches,” he wrote. They roam the streets in “‘wolf packs,’” and “‘maim and kill on impulse.’” Sure sounds like sound science /s. I wish more…

Hahahaha... well said.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#23

Post by rectang » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:25 PM UTC

yardie wrote: post #9

40acres wrote: post #6

"Tough on crime" was always a dog whistle to signal to (most) voters that politicians were willing to lock up minorities for comparably minor crimes. It's good to see that the winds have shifted towards a more just system although there is a long way to go. I think there are many factors that contribute to this trend and would love to see a paper which goes into the details. I would bet that prosecutors have a lot to…

Tough on crime has gone out of style. We had our primaries recently and only a few conservative dinosaurs even mentioned ToC in their voter biography. Most of the candidates running for AD, circuit judge, and other legal offices were drumming up their crime intervention bonafides.

Voter suppression through felony disenfranchisement, however, remains en vogue.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/09/florida...

"In Florida, more than 21 percent of black adults are disenfranchised because of this policy."

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#24

Post by TangoTrotFox » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:27 PM UTC

squirrelicus wrote: post #7

Anyone have any evidence that suggests this is because there are fewer juveniles that should be in prison, or if we're imprisoning more accurately, or there are more juvneiles that aren't in prison but should be? There's a lot of nuance here and I haven't found any good data on what caused the change -- just political bloviation

This is also what I was wondering. The first thing I was looked for was raw numbers. I found those here [1]. Nationwide youth confinement dropped 41% from 1995 to 2010. So the next question is how does this compare to the general change in crime rates. A convenient graph with those data is available here. [2] And we see there has been an overall 36% drop in crime rates.

And so, lacking any confounding data, it would seem to be almost fully explained by the general drop in crime. Of course now that begs the question of what's causing that drop, but that's a more actively researched question and it appears that the answer to that could likely also explain this.

[1] - https://www.aecf.org/resources/youth-incarceration-in-the-un...

[2] - http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#25

Post by matkins » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:28 PM UTC

phobosdeimos wrote: post #21

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

It costs a cool million to throw a kid in jail so the numbers add up. But dont worry when the economy goes South again the prison industry will be back with their promise to provide jobs.

So maybe make throwing someone in jail not cost a million.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#26

Post by 40acres » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:28 PM UTC

yardie wrote: post #9

40acres wrote: post #6

"Tough on crime" was always a dog whistle to signal to (most) voters that politicians were willing to lock up minorities for comparably minor crimes. It's good to see that the winds have shifted towards a more just system although there is a long way to go. I think there are many factors that contribute to this trend and would love to see a paper which goes into the details. I would bet that prosecutors have a lot to…

Tough on crime has gone out of style. We had our primaries recently and only a few conservative dinosaurs even mentioned ToC in their voter biography. Most of the candidates running for AD, circuit judge, and other legal offices were drumming up their crime intervention bonafides.

For sure, we are also starting to see more minority district attorneys and attorney generals. I don't have stats to back this up to sense a trend but America recently had their first black AG (Holder, Lynch) and California and New York have had minority AGs recently (Kamala Harris & Becerra for CA, NY recently elected Letitia James for the democratic nomination and she is likely to win the general)

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#27

Post by jcims » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:31 PM UTC

matkins wrote: post #25

phobosdeimos wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It costs a cool million to throw a kid in jail so the numbers add up. But dont worry when the economy goes South again the prison industry will be back with their promise to provide jobs.

So maybe make throwing someone in jail not cost a million.

20 hours mandatory service hosing shit off the sidewalks would be a better deterrent anyway.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#28

Post by dv_dt » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:32 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #16

In SF I've seen first-hand groups of youths filling up their backpacks with store items and running off laughing. They don't even run more than a block before slowing down to walk because they know nothing will happen. Thousands of dollars of items are taken but because of the new law where theft under $1000 per person is considered a misdemeanor, nothing happens. I talked with the merchant and she said that the poli…

That sounds more like a problem with the police, and not a problem with the law.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#29

Post by pavlov » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:32 PM UTC

matkins wrote: post #25

phobosdeimos wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It costs a cool million to throw a kid in jail so the numbers add up. But dont worry when the economy goes South again the prison industry will be back with their promise to provide jobs.

So maybe make throwing someone in jail not cost a million.

Maybe spend a small fraction of that million on a child much earlier?

Making jail "cheaper for taxpayers" tends to mean things like more mandatory labour, more phone calls that cost $5 / min, etc. Trying to squeeze money out of inmates will only make them resent the system even more.

Re: The Number of Youth in Juvenile Detention in California Has Quietly Plummeted

#30

Post by TangoTrotFox » Mon, Sep 17, 2018, 6:35 PM UTC

king_panic wrote: post #12

VICE's "Raised in the System" feature on juvenile prisioners shows how detrimental sending kids away to juvenile detention centers is. They are 30 times more likely to be sent to prisons as adults, completely unequipped to integrate back into society when they return from detention and the crimes they're sent away for can mostly be explained by adolescent tendencies that most people grow out of.

A lot of these sort of features engage in bad science for the sake of shocking numbers and headlines. For instance is that 30x more likely compared to juveniles who were tried and convicted of the same offense, but avoided detention, or is it compared to the general population? I expect we're almost certainly looking at the latter, but then suddenly it's a completely meaningless statistic meant to mislead rather than inform.