Ask HN: How do I choose between a job offer from Google and a promising startup?

Yeah, come to Google. PS: I work there, and it's a good place :)

In all seriousness, promising startups are few and far between. If you find one (aligned with your interests), by all means jump on it :)

How do you know if a startup is super promising?

i) Check out their source of funding. If super reputable VCs => Good signal.

ii) Check out their attrition. If it's a revolving door, don't go there.

iii) Check out the employees. Best startups tend to have highly credentialed employees (e.g. formerly very successful startup founders).

iv) Is the startup on a continuous growth trajectory? Best startups are on one without much setback. Again, multiple setbacks => Don't go there.

v) I wouldn't bet on the specific idea or the problem being solved. Who would've guessed Facebook, Uber, Airbnb would be massive hits purely based on the idea? Betting on momentum (e.g. user growth) and/or the team is somewhat easier to measure and understand.

vi) Where do you see yourself (and the startup) in 2, 3, 5 years if you join? Will you gain skills and reputation highly relevant to your next steps? How big is the addressable market (and potential market value) of the startup?

It's best to make a list of factors you care about (money, location etc). Rank each option by each factor. Add things up in the end.

These are the rules that I personally follow. Best of luck!

Flume is not comparable to Google cloud dataflow nor beam. But I understand your point.

The median is what really matters when making almost any kind of decisions; else you forever chase after improbable outliers.

The "right" startup - one that is bootstrapped, has a successful product idea, a good founder, competent employees, and equity - is almost always a better choice than the big firm. That's because you'll get to wear all hats, learn on the fly, learn to do everything and anything to make the product successful, and with luck get a big chunk of change in a few years.

That said, companies like this are few and far between. Especially now, apparently with most startup companies opting in early for venture capital or angel investor funding, which dilutes both your opportunity for equity and say in the company. And honestly, there are a lot of dumb ideas out there. Also, if you're relatively new to the industry, you probably don't have the ability to recognize the right startup opportunity.

In most cases, it's better to start off at a big company and learn the ropes, and when you think you've done that, take your time watching for the startup opportunity, and then make that move. In the long run, though, no one really is going to look out for you. With these two steps under your belt, you'll have the background to be your own founder one day.

Consider the ethics of working for a company that makes its money extracting data from users to sell advertisements. (Sure, it does other stuff, too.) If your promising startup does the same, maybe it is a wash.