Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#91

Post by pmorici » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 3:30 AM UTC

tejohnso wrote: post #51

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #42

“We’re heading to a place where we don’t have farmers; we just have food production.” This. I don't know what the solution to this is. I have a small farm, and raise meat sheep. But it's very much a hobby. The problem is, though, that almost all of the other farmers in my area, the ones I meet at the feed store or the livestock auction, they're also hobby farmers. There is exactly one “real” farmer (meaning that it's…

What do you make of stories like this[1] talking about grossing six figures on a quarter acre? I know it's gross, but it still paints a much rosier picture than your claim that even 300 acres can't be farmed to a halfway decent lifestyle. There are plenty of very positive stories about significant profits on less than five acres, even less than one acre. I'd like to hear your take on it. [1] https://www.youtube.com/w…

The guy in that video is using a BCS walk behind tractor which costs ~$3,400 brand new [0]. That's a much different capital cost requirement than someone who needs a $50k+ tractor to farm 300 acres. He is also doing a bunch of other stuff like using a paper pot planter[1], and DIY walk in coolers [2] with cheap window AC units to keep capital and labor costs low. He also doesn't own any of the land he is using he rents people's unused back yards. I'd be surprised if an operation like that cost more than $15,000 total to get up and running.

[0] https://bcsamerica.com/product/model-739-ps

[1] https://paperpot.co/

[2] https://www.storeitcold.com/

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#92

Post by samstave » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 3:40 AM UTC

harryh wrote: post #72

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #42

“We’re heading to a place where we don’t have farmers; we just have food production.” This. I don't know what the solution to this is. I have a small farm, and raise meat sheep. But it's very much a hobby. The problem is, though, that almost all of the other farmers in my area, the ones I meet at the feed store or the livestock auction, they're also hobby farmers. There is exactly one “real” farmer (meaning that it's…

If the US goes to war with China, if we're literally shooting at each other and dropping bombs, I don't think it's going to be all that big of a step to expropriate some farms on our own soil that they happen to own.

You might like this episode of rotten...

https://www.netflix.com/watch/80149707?trackId=13752289&tctx...

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#93

Post by AnimalMuppet » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 3:43 AM UTC

Spooky23 wrote: post #82

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #42

“We’re heading to a place where we don’t have farmers; we just have food production.” This. I don't know what the solution to this is. I have a small farm, and raise meat sheep. But it's very much a hobby. The problem is, though, that almost all of the other farmers in my area, the ones I meet at the feed store or the livestock auction, they're also hobby farmers. There is exactly one “real” farmer (meaning that it's…

This problem is similar to what happened in Ancient Rome. As wealth and influence concentrates, farms get bigger and bigger. Instead of slaves we have massive machinery and migrant workers. Disruption or destruction of key transit or water infrastructure in California would be a crippling blow to the US. The infrastructure to farm is gone. I worked on a farm as a teen in the 90s. There were 10 active farms in my town…

> Disruption or destruction of key transit or water infrastructure in California would be a crippling blow to the US.

I doubt that the US is that dependent on California. For lettuce and strawberries, yes. Not for wheat, corn, soybeans, or cattle, though. We won't starve without salads or strawberries.

I know that I'm missing some of what California grows. Losing it would hurt. But it's not vital.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#94

Post by samstave » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 3:45 AM UTC

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #42

“We’re heading to a place where we don’t have farmers; we just have food production.” This. I don't know what the solution to this is. I have a small farm, and raise meat sheep. But it's very much a hobby. The problem is, though, that almost all of the other farmers in my area, the ones I meet at the feed store or the livestock auction, they're also hobby farmers. There is exactly one “real” farmer (meaning that it's…

>The economies of scale in agriculture have become so strong that there's no way to compete on price any other way. And people understandably don't want to double their grocery bills just to buy local.

Isnt this the reason for barter communities; bater some of your meat for some other veggies... or farm products.?

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#95

Post by chiefalchemist » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 3:59 AM UTC

randomdata wrote: post #31

chiefalchemist wrote: post #23

I read and read quickly, so perhaps I missed it. But all the examples seem to be farmers of commodities. If you're producing something that's consistently being over-produced, what do they expect to happen? Don't get me wrong. Obviously, the food supply is important. It's also difficult (i.e., weather). None the less, running full force into producing a commodity can't be the best option they have. Is it?

As a grain farmer in Canada, I see this year as being one of the better years for commodity prices. Wheat was back to levels we haven't seen in a long time. Corn has held a little above average. Soybeans have taken a big hit in the last couple of months, but there were some good marketing opportunities earlier in the year. Unless harvest is a complete failure, there doesn't seem to be much to worry about. A welcome c…

Yes. But if you're going to do whatever one else is doing, that's not a plan to prosper. It's suicidal.

For example, I didn't see a single mention of "...so we're going to go organic..."

Again. Don't get me wrong. Food supply is important. One article does not a trend make. That said, sharing a bad idea with 100 or 1000 other people (farmers) still makes it a bad idea.

I realize change isn't something most farmers seek, none the less, they are not immune to the definition of insanity.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#96

Post by chiefalchemist » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 4:04 AM UTC

travisoneill1 wrote: post #73

chiefalchemist wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a side note, a few years ago (~10 to 15 yrs) there was an article / op-ed in the NYT Sunday Magazine. In it the author's "theory" was the growing obesity crisis was due to farm subsidies. In short, cheap corn means cheap high fructose corn syrup. Hard to argue against that logic. Cheap food is great for votes. Unfortunately, it also seem to often have ill health consequences.

I'll take it over the health consequences of a food shortage any day.

Easy to say until the health consequences become so massive they suck up so much money you're going to bed hungry. And that __is__ in fact happening.

I hear ya. But that does not diminish the consequences and real cost of subsidized foods.

Fact: Worldwide, more people die from the effects of too much food than not enough.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#97

Post by rmason » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 4:06 AM UTC

I worked with farmers for over twenty years. It is a relentless game of ever increasing efficiency. But what I observed were marked differences in ability to market the crops they grew.

One guy I was good friends with would always sell enough of his crop ahead to pay all his bills if the price was above his cost of production. Sometimes he'd sell two or three years ahead when prices were good. He said in a ten year period he had lots of neighbors who made more money than he did some years only to lose it during the bad years. He said that gambling with borrowed money didn't make any sense, only with your profits.

Knew two guys who let their wives do all the farms marketing. They went to school for it and would network online with other farm marketers. They felt that they were too emotional about it and that it helped their wives feel like true partners.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#98

Post by jackcosgrove » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 4:06 AM UTC

lbotos wrote: post #85

jackcosgrove wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly enough the futures contract was invented by agricultural commodities traders to hedge against inclement weather. But consider that many farmers only have a high school education, and are managing operations with millions in assets/debt, hundreds of thousands in revenue per year, and razor thin margins. A lot can go wrong. Many understand the benefits and dangers of financing, but many don't.

Is this still true? My understanding is that "Modern Farm Science" is a big thing in Midwestern US colleges.

The BLS lists a typical education for a farmer as a high school diploma.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/mobile/farmers-ranchers-a...

It's not that farmers are particularly uneducated as a class of people. It's that they run complex businesses relative to their formal education. A minority of people finish college, but only a small number of high school graduates are farmers. Most who become farmers learn the job by growing up on a farm.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#99

Post by TomMckenny » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 4:32 AM UTC

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #42

“We’re heading to a place where we don’t have farmers; we just have food production.” This. I don't know what the solution to this is. I have a small farm, and raise meat sheep. But it's very much a hobby. The problem is, though, that almost all of the other farmers in my area, the ones I meet at the feed store or the livestock auction, they're also hobby farmers. There is exactly one “real” farmer (meaning that it's…

China need not be involved. And anyway, in a national emergency the government would simply seize any foreign owned asset they needed.

It's the continued consolidation that will result in cartel/monopolies and their catastrophic outcome. That combined with unlimited finance in politics to protect these interests and we have a perfect storm. Unless anti-trust is zealously enforced and quickly, we are facing a future a lot rougher than today.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#100

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Sep 16, 2018, 4:48 AM UTC

village-idiot wrote: post #14

ewams wrote: post #2

"A gallon of milk costs a farmer approximately $1.90 to produce, but in the last year, farmers have been receiving as little as $1.35 per gallon." If it cost more to make it than they are getting, why are milk prices not higher?

Subsidies distorting the market largely. Farmers continue to use rBST to over produce milk, and the fed pays to destroy some of it to avoid collapsing the market. The situation would sort itself out better if we’d left it the hell alone, but now the pain that correcting this situation will cause is significant

[deleted]