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Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

civileats.com

11–20 of 159 posts

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#11
post #7

This process of farm consolidation is inevitable. Agriculture benefits from economies of scale, even 2000 years ago the Roman latifundia fed an empire efficiently.

Did they? What's up with all the famine then? The empire relied on an obscene amount of grain shipments from North Africa and Egypt (plus sicily to begin with).

Roman food distribution was anything but efficient or fair

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#12
post #6
post #2

"A gallon of milk costs a farmer approximately $1.90 to produce, but in the last year, farmers have been receiving as little as $1.35 per gallon." If it cost more to make it than they are getting, why are milk prices not higher?

Agriculture subsidies. Farming in the US hasn't been a fundamentally profitable business for decades but the government provides a massive welfare program to ensure the survival of farmers, maintain a stable food supply, and keeping prices low for consumers.

> ensure the survival of farmers, maintain a stable food supply, and keeping prices low for consumers

Also, farmers are a powerful special interest group. I know a dairy farmer who was invited to meet with a state governor one on one. The farmer flew to the meeting on his family's private jet.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#13
post #11
post #7

This process of farm consolidation is inevitable. Agriculture benefits from economies of scale, even 2000 years ago the Roman latifundia fed an empire efficiently.

Did they? What's up with all the famine then? The empire relied on an obscene amount of grain shipments from North Africa and Egypt (plus sicily to begin with). Roman food distribution was anything but efficient or fair

Efficient doesn't mean perfect, or even free from flaws. In the ancient world, humans were very much at the mercy of the weather day to day, and one bad season could wipe out entire cities. Doesn't mean their farming practices weren't efficient for the time and available technology.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#14
post #2

"A gallon of milk costs a farmer approximately $1.90 to produce, but in the last year, farmers have been receiving as little as $1.35 per gallon." If it cost more to make it than they are getting, why are milk prices not higher?

Subsidies distorting the market largely. Farmers continue to use rBST to over produce milk, and the fed pays to destroy some of it to avoid collapsing the market.

The situation would sort itself out better if we’d left it the hell alone, but now the pain that correcting this situation will cause is significant

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#15
post #2

"A gallon of milk costs a farmer approximately $1.90 to produce, but in the last year, farmers have been receiving as little as $1.35 per gallon." If it cost more to make it than they are getting, why are milk prices not higher?

Really makes you wonder why a country would implement supply management.

Oh America...

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#16
post #11
post #7

This process of farm consolidation is inevitable. Agriculture benefits from economies of scale, even 2000 years ago the Roman latifundia fed an empire efficiently.

Did they? What's up with all the famine then? The empire relied on an obscene amount of grain shipments from North Africa and Egypt (plus sicily to begin with). Roman food distribution was anything but efficient or fair

I'd say they did pretty damn well given the lack of contemporary farming technologies and practices.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#17
post #4

The article only mentions land value once, and in my opinion this is a huge oversight. There's articles going back to 2010[0] that speculate that a land bubble had been going for a few years, and when that's coupled with quantitative easing it means that people had to borrow increasing amounts of money to buy an equivalent amount of land. Combine that with decreasing crop prices and additional debt load that was take…

I recall that the guy who made a billion or so betting against the housing crisis mentioned in a doc that his new thesis was farm prices... I wonder if he is out yet.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#18
post #4

The article only mentions land value once, and in my opinion this is a huge oversight. There's articles going back to 2010[0] that speculate that a land bubble had been going for a few years, and when that's coupled with quantitative easing it means that people had to borrow increasing amounts of money to buy an equivalent amount of land. Combine that with decreasing crop prices and additional debt load that was take…

A lot of these farmers presumably owned their land prior to QE? Maybe it’s the ones who bought land after who are going to the wall.

In the UK, economists say QE has been a success to the point where some say we have learned how to print money without creating Weimar-style inflation. However it looks like the inflation has simply transferred to assets, particularly property including farmland. And we don’t yet know what the impact is. Again in the UK, we might say in the future, increasing property prices resulted in a reduced birth rate, and an increased need for inward migration to plug the gap. Just speculation, but we don’t yet know how this experiment plays out - and with your interesting insight, we might ask whether the end of mid-scale farming was the impact. Given the importance of this group, for many reasons, on American culture and identity, what will be the victim of QE?

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#19
post #11
post #7

This process of farm consolidation is inevitable. Agriculture benefits from economies of scale, even 2000 years ago the Roman latifundia fed an empire efficiently.

Did they? What's up with all the famine then? The empire relied on an obscene amount of grain shipments from North Africa and Egypt (plus sicily to begin with). Roman food distribution was anything but efficient or fair

There is an argument that all famine is political, and has been for several centuries. It seems crazy on the surface, but it's hard to find counterexamples.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#20
post #6
post #2

"A gallon of milk costs a farmer approximately $1.90 to produce, but in the last year, farmers have been receiving as little as $1.35 per gallon." If it cost more to make it than they are getting, why are milk prices not higher?

Agriculture subsidies. Farming in the US hasn't been a fundamentally profitable business for decades but the government provides a massive welfare program to ensure the survival of farmers, maintain a stable food supply, and keeping prices low for consumers.

As a side note, a few years ago (~10 to 15 yrs) there was an article / op-ed in the NYT Sunday Magazine. In it the author's "theory" was the growing obesity crisis was due to farm subsidies. In short, cheap corn means cheap high fructose corn syrup.

Hard to argue against that logic.

Cheap food is great for votes. Unfortunately, it also seem to often have ill health consequences.

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