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Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

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Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#81

Post by DoreenMichele »

PostOnce wrote: post #79
DoreenMichele wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, some folks sincerely believe that grains need to be consumed as sprouts or (some other mitigating form) because the phytic acid or whatever is hard on the digestive tract. I wouldn't go so far as to say they're not edible, but criticism of grains doesn't seem like outright crazy talk either.

"Some folks" sincerely believe vaccines cause autism. "Some folks" believe the earth is flat. I don't care what "some folks" beliefs are, I care about the ground truth. It doesn't take a lot of equipment to deduce that billions of people eating grains consistently over the course of millenia means that people are in fact well equipped to eat grains.

The truth is we are only just now beginning to understand the impact of food on health and we have tons more to learn.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semmelweis_reflex

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#82

Post by Spooky23 »

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #42

“We’re heading to a place where we don’t have farmers; we just have food production.” This. I don't know what the solution to this is. I have a small farm, and raise meat sheep. But it's very much a hobby. The problem is, though, that almost all of the other farmers in my area, the ones I meet at the feed store or the livestock auction, they're also hobby farmers. There is exactly one “real” farmer (meaning that it's…

This problem is similar to what happened in Ancient Rome. As wealth and influence concentrates, farms get bigger and bigger. Instead of slaves we have massive machinery and migrant workers.

Disruption or destruction of key transit or water infrastructure in California would be a crippling blow to the US.

The infrastructure to farm is gone. I worked on a farm as a teen in the 90s. There were 10 active farms in my town then (down from dozens in the 70s). Now there is one. I don’t think there are more than a half dozen dairy operations in the county left.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#83

Post by PostOnce »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #81
PostOnce wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Some folks" sincerely believe vaccines cause autism. "Some folks" believe the earth is flat. I don't care what "some folks" beliefs are, I care about the ground truth. It doesn't take a lot of equipment to deduce that billions of people eating grains consistently over the course of millenia means that people are in fact well equipped to eat grains.

The truth is we are only just now beginning to understand the impact of food on health and we have tons more to learn. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semmelweis_reflex https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis

I provided some evidence (billions of people have been eating many kinds of grains since the dawn of agriculture).

The Semmelweis effect is regarding rejecting new evidence -- and yet you provide no evidence, while dismissing mine.

Perhaps you should question your beliefs.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#84

Post by dv_dt »

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #71
nitwit005 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite a bit of US food production is going to produce animal feed, and some is exported. It'd take an amazing blow to cause actual starvation, given that could be diverted to feeding the population. The main threat to agriculture in time of war used to be dependence on foreign oil, but the US has largely solved that.

“Quite a bit of US food production is going to produce animal feed, and some is exported. It'd take an amazing blow to cause actual starvation, given that could divert that back to feeding the population.” Well, not really. Yes, it's true that a substantial fraction of current US food production goes to animal feed. Yes, it's true, theoretically, that you could turn all of that into human food production instead. Of…

It seems like our current economic system of capitalism is pretty bad at balancing slow-response externalities. Driving of short term prices below sustainable levels is just another kind of bubble. Financial bubbles become front and center because the system focuses on money, but sustainable food, sustainable wage/living quality, and a sustainable climate are all bubbles with equally or more serious consequences.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#85

Post by lbotos »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #44
cheez wrote: post #8

Are farmers not able to use financial instruments to hedge their costs? Simply borrowing money with no hedge seems VERY scary to me. I guess that's just the game?

Interestingly enough the futures contract was invented by agricultural commodities traders to hedge against inclement weather. But consider that many farmers only have a high school education, and are managing operations with millions in assets/debt, hundreds of thousands in revenue per year, and razor thin margins. A lot can go wrong. Many understand the benefits and dangers of financing, but many don't.

Is this still true? My understanding is that "Modern Farm Science" is a big thing in Midwestern US colleges.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#86

Post by lbotos »

NTDF9 wrote: post #22
cheez wrote: post #8

Are farmers not able to use financial instruments to hedge their costs? Simply borrowing money with no hedge seems VERY scary to me. I guess that's just the game?

I'm not aware of these instruments. What are some examples of hedges to farm borrowing so I can look them up?

If you want to read more, "The Futures" was solid intro to the "how" it started:

https://www.amazon.com/Futures-Speculator-Origins-Biggest-Ma...

(no affiliate link)

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#87

Post by randomdata »

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #78
barry-cotter wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We can't live off of a diet that is 75% field corn and industrial soybeans. Why not? Beans and rice, potatoes and milk, bread and peanut butter. Those are all nutritionally complete diets, as in you won’t get any deficiency diseases eating nothing else for a year. Feed corn and soybeans has carbs and protein. It might be nutritionally complete by itself. Add cabbage or some other leafy green vegetable and 100g of m…

You can only eat fresh corn when it's in season, and only within a week or so after it's been picked. To be a suitable year-round survival food, corn has to be processed into corn meal. This usually entails treating it with lye, drying it, and grinding it. This gets you corn meal, grits, polenta. Or hominy if you skip the grinding step. We don't have the equipment to do this at the necessary scale. Corn just isn't us…

> And of course with soybeans... they would need to be dried or canned, packaged, stored, and shipped. Doable but different from what we are currently set up to do.

As a soybean farmer, and one who has focused on IP soybeans for the human market for most of my career at that, unless I am misunderstanding you, that is exactly how we do it. The beans are harvested dry, packaged, stored, and then shipped (primarily) to the Asian markets who are interested in such product.

The trouble in North America is that few know what to do with them. To be honest, I have never even tried my own product. I also grow navy beans and have cooked with them. They are more of a common staple in these parts. But they are also a much more fickle crop. You're not going to easily replace soys with other edible beans.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#88

Post by undersuit »

ceejayoz wrote: post #75
harryh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US goes to war with China, if we're literally shooting at each other and dropping bombs, I don't think it's going to be all that big of a step to expropriate some farms on our own soil that they happen to own.

If they're prepared in advance for such an action, that expropriation might be a bunch of bricked farm equipment.

Burnt crops and salted fields.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#89

Post by GlenTheMachine »

randomdata wrote: post #87
GlenTheMachine wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can only eat fresh corn when it's in season, and only within a week or so after it's been picked. To be a suitable year-round survival food, corn has to be processed into corn meal. This usually entails treating it with lye, drying it, and grinding it. This gets you corn meal, grits, polenta. Or hominy if you skip the grinding step. We don't have the equipment to do this at the necessary scale. Corn just isn't us…

> And of course with soybeans... they would need to be dried or canned, packaged, stored, and shipped. Doable but different from what we are currently set up to do. As a soybean farmer, and one who has focused on IP soybeans for the human market for most of my career at that, unless I am misunderstanding you, that is exactly how we do it. The beans are harvested dry, packaged, stored, and then shipped (primarily) to…

I stand corrected.

Re: Is the Second Farm Crisis Upon Us?

#90

Post by elvinyung »

Spooky23 wrote: post #82
GlenTheMachine wrote: post #42

“We’re heading to a place where we don’t have farmers; we just have food production.” This. I don't know what the solution to this is. I have a small farm, and raise meat sheep. But it's very much a hobby. The problem is, though, that almost all of the other farmers in my area, the ones I meet at the feed store or the livestock auction, they're also hobby farmers. There is exactly one “real” farmer (meaning that it's…

This problem is similar to what happened in Ancient Rome. As wealth and influence concentrates, farms get bigger and bigger. Instead of slaves we have massive machinery and migrant workers. Disruption or destruction of key transit or water infrastructure in California would be a crippling blow to the US. The infrastructure to farm is gone. I worked on a farm as a teen in the 90s. There were 10 active farms in my town…

I'm interested in the history of the role of land centralization in the fall of Rome. I'm curious if you can provide a source for further reading?
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