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Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

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Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#121

Post by antpls »

megous wrote: post #107
guilhas wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russians had to beg for the OPCW to go collect samples from Douma. While they were there, UK, FR, US were having fun bombing the area. How can more Russian FUD be good for Russia? Because that is UK and US do everyday. They dont need Russia help. Also OPCW does analysis in more than one lab. Both Skripal and Syria chemical use theories are very weak.

Not really. Point me to the OPCW report that says evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria is weak. FUD is good, because it takes away/weakens popular support from any kind of western intervention, which is good for Putin's interests in the region. Less competition. Also you're rewriting history. I was actually watching the developments quite closely as it was happening and there were numerous reports of Russians de…

I have been starting to read TASS news in parallel to Reuters' feed.

From only reading news, I don't know which side to trust anymore. Putin's gov denies almost all accusations (cyberattacks, chimical attacks, nerve agents, etc) from Western countries, and instead accuses the West govs of creating a "russo-phobia" amongst people opinion.

Example of news you can read on TASS, but not relayed by Reuters : http://tass.com/politics/1021365 http://tass.com/politics/1021274 http://tass.com/defense/1021107 http://tass.com/world/1021091

And it goes on and on...

If you only read TASS, you would quickly think Western govs are not much "cleaner" than Russia

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#122

Post by azangru »

foldr wrote: post #118
azangru wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they have plenty of people intelligent enough to do better Now, that's a very charitable assumption. I am not sure we have any evidence for that :-) > Given how these stories over the poisoning have played out it certainly looks that way. But that would mean that they were provoking the Western countries to give them hell. I am the first to admit that I do not hold their intellectual powers in any high esteem, but…

>But that would mean that they were provoking the Western countries to give them hell Gee, you think? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... Putin clearly has no problem with the idea of provoking Western countries.

Crimea is really very much of a corner case.

First, it's not in a Western country.

Second, the annexation happened soon after the Ukranian revolution, which made the legitimacy of the Ukranian government (and the very status of the Ukranian state) at that point uncertain.

Third, there were various historical and political considerations muddying the issue (Crimea was given to the Ukraine by the head of the USSR only about a generation ago, and there was a general feeling of a historical injustice done by this act; there was a large Russian population in Crimea; and the revolutionary Ukraine was markedly nationalistic and anti-Russian, which probably pushed a large portion of the Russian-speaking Crimean population into the embrace of Russia).

Smuggling a military-grade poison in Britain is quite a different matter.

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#123

Post by coldtea »

foldr wrote: post #116
coldtea wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This was always about sending a message. For that, it has to be obvious who did it. That's the poor-man's theory of a blatant murder. As if, if the same person was murdered with a gun, the message would be lost? Russians would then had still send their message just fine (those in similar situation as the suspect would know it immediately), but still be able to deny doing anything and avoid all the BS hoopla going o…

>As if, if the same person was murdered with a gun, the message would be lost? Yes, because any criminal organization can easily obtain a gun, whereas novichok is much more difficult to obtain. >but still be able to deny doing anything and avoid all the BS hoopla going on now. They don't want to avoid all the "BS hoopla". This is a deliberate provocation.

>Yes, because any criminal organization can easily obtain a gun, whereas novichok is much more difficult to obtain.

That's beside the point.

If someone in disfavor was killed, everybody would still know that it wasn't some random "criminal organization" that did it. There just wouldn't be direct "evidence".

If anything, this would have made killing anybody else easier (because those taking the decision wouldn't have to risk sanctions, and embargoes, and diplomatic tension, and so on), so everybody that was in disfavor would have even more reason to fear for their life (as they'd could be killed just like that with little fuss).

>They don't want to avoid all the "BS hoopla". This is a deliberate provocation.

That's the problem with people watching too much movies like "The Dark Knight‎" where supervillains do anything just to provoke, and then apply this to states which have tons to lose, and don't just provoke for the sake of it (or to scare some third grade targets, as if they couldn't achieve it otherwise).

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#124

Post by foldr »

azangru wrote: post #122
foldr wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But that would mean that they were provoking the Western countries to give them hell Gee, you think? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... Putin clearly has no problem with the idea of provoking Western countries.

Crimea is really very much of a corner case. First, it's not in a Western country. Second, the annexation happened soon after the Ukranian revolution, which made the legitimacy of the Ukranian government (and the very status of the Ukranian state) at that point uncertain. Third, there were various historical and political considerations muddying the issue (Crimea was given to the Ukraine by the head of the USSR only…

The invasion of Crimea is a much bigger deal that the Skripal poisoning. Russia clearly isn't afraid of "provoking" Western countries.

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#125

Post by foldr »

coldtea wrote: post #123
foldr wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>As if, if the same person was murdered with a gun, the message would be lost? Yes, because any criminal organization can easily obtain a gun, whereas novichok is much more difficult to obtain. >but still be able to deny doing anything and avoid all the BS hoopla going on now. They don't want to avoid all the "BS hoopla". This is a deliberate provocation.

> Yes, because any criminal organization can easily obtain a gun, whereas novichok is much more difficult to obtain. That's beside the point. If someone in disfavor was killed, everybody would still know that it wasn't some random "criminal organization" that did it. There just wouldn't be direct "evidence". If anything, this would have made killing anybody else easier (because those taking the decision wouldn't have…

>If someone in disfavor was killed, everybody would still know that it wasn't some random "criminal organization" that did it.

If Skripal had been shot, it would be difficult to be sure that his death had been ordered by the Russian government. In that scenario, anyone with a grievance against him might have done it.

>There just wouldn't be direct "evidence".

Yes, that's the point!

>That's the problem with people watching too much movies like "The Dark Knight‎" where supervillains do anything just to provoke, and then apply this to states which have tons to lose, and don't just provoke for the sake of it (or to scare some third grade targets, as if they couldn't achieve it otherwise).

Nonsense. I'm just inferring from Russia's previous actions. In particular, the Litvinenko murder, which could equally well have been carried out using more conventional means.

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#126

Post by azangru »

foldr wrote: post #124
azangru wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crimea is really very much of a corner case. First, it's not in a Western country. Second, the annexation happened soon after the Ukranian revolution, which made the legitimacy of the Ukranian government (and the very status of the Ukranian state) at that point uncertain. Third, there were various historical and political considerations muddying the issue (Crimea was given to the Ukraine by the head of the USSR only…

The invasion of Crimea is a much bigger deal that the Skripal poisoning. Russia clearly isn't afraid of "provoking" Western countries.

Why is it a bigger deal?

It could have been a bigger deal if Ukraine were a member of NATO, and the alliance had an obligation to respond. But as the things stand, why is it a big deal — for the US, the UK, Germany, France, etc.?

(Skripals poisoning, in contrast, would imply a special operation on the soil of a sovereign Western country, using the tabooed chemical weapons. A concrete, old-school, physical action, as opposed to the more abstract propaganda wars or some shady online activities.)

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#127

Post by dragonwriter »

foldr wrote: post #124
azangru wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crimea is really very much of a corner case. First, it's not in a Western country. Second, the annexation happened soon after the Ukranian revolution, which made the legitimacy of the Ukranian government (and the very status of the Ukranian state) at that point uncertain. Third, there were various historical and political considerations muddying the issue (Crimea was given to the Ukraine by the head of the USSR only…

The invasion of Crimea is a much bigger deal that the Skripal poisoning. Russia clearly isn't afraid of "provoking" Western countries.

The invasion is a much bigger deal on a global scale, but not against a country firmly established as part of the West, while the Skripal poisoning is chemical weapon attack on the territory of a NATO member; as such, it is a far greater provocation of Western countries.

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#128

Post by dragonwriter »

antpls wrote: post #121
megous wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Point me to the OPCW report that says evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria is weak. FUD is good, because it takes away/weakens popular support from any kind of western intervention, which is good for Putin's interests in the region. Less competition. Also you're rewriting history. I was actually watching the developments quite closely as it was happening and there were numerous reports of Russians de…

I have been starting to read TASS news in parallel to Reuters' feed. From only reading news, I don't know which side to trust anymore. Putin's gov denies almost all accusations (cyberattacks, chimical attacks, nerve agents, etc) from Western countries, and instead accuses the West govs of creating a "russo-phobia" amongst people opinion. Example of news you can read on TASS, but not relayed by Reuters : http://tass.c…

Reuters isn't a state-owned propaganda outlet; TASS has been since at least the early days of the Bolshevik regime (and maybe earlier; it was state-owned telegraph agency under the Tsarist regime, but I don't have any information of whether it acted as a state propaganda arm then; it's journalist came from a separate firm.)

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#129

Post by TomMckenny »

dpwm wrote: post #72
TomMckenny wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His post and the spam of others like it are to invite enough controversy that this story disappears from the front page. And since I was obliged to post to point that out, I'll continue... The UK is _not_ central. So now we instantly distrust the Swiss and Dutch secret services too. Who, we're to believe, framed these fellows yet punished them with nothing more than sending them back to Russia. If Westerners are now…

> I hope the admins use it as a honey pot for locating shills. There are shills on all sides.[0] Many of the people you are calling shills are actually doubtful of the narrative put forward by a security cabal involved in one of the most pervasive and under-handed spying programmes [1]. Part of the reason for this is because that narrative is actually inconsistent with earlier versions of itself. Those who disagree w…

"Many" genuine people are doubtful of the Swiss and Dutch arrests of Russian spies because the US unethically monitors the Internet?

Arrests done solely because Switzerland really wants to start the cold war again?

No, actually the pattern generally is to sow such much confusion that people no longer believe anything and end up believing all sides are the same.

The pattern here specifically is to get the story of the front page which was successful.

Re: Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber break-in at Swiss lab

#130

Post by foldr »

azangru wrote: post #126
foldr wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The invasion of Crimea is a much bigger deal that the Skripal poisoning. Russia clearly isn't afraid of "provoking" Western countries.

Why is it a bigger deal? It could have been a bigger deal if Ukraine were a member of NATO, and the alliance had an obligation to respond. But as the things stand, why is it a big deal — for the US, the UK, Germany, France, etc.? (Skripals poisoning, in contrast, would imply a special operation on the soil of a sovereign Western country, using the tabooed chemical weapons. A concrete, old-school, physical action, as…

>Skripals poisoning, in contrast, would imply a special operation on the soil of a sovereign Western country, using the tabooed chemical weapons.

That's nothing Russia hadn't already done years before.

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