The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer • Hacker News Board

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#81

Post by singularity2001 » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:00 PM UTC

fjarlq wrote: post #63

singularity2001 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10 cm are already a problem? did I miss some news / tides?

Check out the increase in tidal flooding on the US east coast: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/04/science/globa...

Edit: Actually it's already 30cm from global warming. That is something. Sorry that I forgot that: https://climate.nasa.gov/system/charts/12_seaLevel_left.gif

Old: ok so 10cm global sea rise + 15cm tide fluctuation, which might well reverse.

I can't believe some cities are built so close to the water when storm surges and natural tide fluctuation over decades is over 50 cm (20'') as seen in Alaska etc. ^^ This statement still holds somewhat.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#82

Post by jfrankamp » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:01 PM UTC

derekp7 wrote: post #24

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

Another way to think about it is owning an electric as a primary vehicle (most trips are under 50 miles or whatever) and the gas car as as secondary, long range vehicle. This makes way more sense than hybrids for two car families. We own a Nissan Leaf and its definitely our primary vehicle, it gets 10x the miles/day as the gas car at a fraction of the maintenance cost. We pull the gas car out for the weekends or trips to Canada. The drive train on either vehicle is comprehendible, I dare you to look under the hood of a hybrid and say the same.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#83

Post by heisenbit » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:01 PM UTC

There are some question marks on how sustainable the US oil boom is as the extraction methods are quite capital intensive. We are at historic low capital price and have a fairly high oil price and still the profitability picture is not pretty.

To dig deeper see: https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/15/shale-profits-remain-elusi...

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#84

Post by oh_sigh » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:02 PM UTC

awakeasleep wrote: post #60

GuiA wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum: "My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashid_bin_Saeed_Al_Maktoum#De...

Keep in mind a decent camel starts at $55k and a thoroughbred goes for $10m to $30m

I lived with some bedouins in Morocco near merzouga for a few months who had about a hundred camels. I really doubt they were sitting on millions of dollars of camels.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#85

Post by reaperducer » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:06 PM UTC

2trill2spill wrote: post #27

aphextron wrote: post #5

It's been fascinating to watch Saudi influence wane over the last few years as this sinks in as the new reality. We live in a completely different power structure now from 20 years ago. They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point due to tar sands, renewables, and natural gas.

> They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point due to tar sands, renewables, and natural gas. You missed the other significant factor in reducing OPEC political power, horizontal drilling, IE fracking. Almost all the new oil and natural gas in the US is coming from horizontally drilled wells.

Almost all the new oil and natural gas in the US is coming from horizontally drilled wells.

Utah tar sands are coming online soon. Then... who knows what comes after that.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#86

Post by BrandonMarc » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:06 PM UTC

derekp7 wrote: post #24

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

For my part, I'm not anxious about range; price is the main issue. The car purchases over my lifetime have been $5000, $2500, $1, $4000, $11000, $8000, $12000 ... and I have never bought new.

I do not see a viable electric vehicle for me. Tesla looks awesome, and I cannot find an affordable one near me. Hell, there are TWO (count 'em, 2) used Model-3's within 20 miles of me, and they're selling for $50,000.

LOL and Model 3 was claimed as the "affordable" one. I make 6 figures, and look at my car-buying habits. * Model-3 is just not in my wheelhouse, and probably won't be for many, many years.

I'd love to buy a quality electric, and I don't see it happening any time soon. Anyway, this is just one more data-point ...

... * and to anyone who suggests I change my habits, I'll reply: 401k is important to me, saving for my first house is important to me, saving for kids' college is important to me, and staying debt-free tops everything (aside from a mortgage someday).

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#87

Post by panzagl » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:07 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #47

CompelTechnic wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we are talking strictly about the economic measures going into a business decision, using (cheap QE) debt to finance capital expenditures was a good idea. The profit being made off of the capex justifies it well. It is not unsustainable in the sense of a business decision.

The article argues much of the industry may not be profitable on using normal accounting and: >the public markets have been valuing fracking companies not based on a multiple of profits, the standard way of valuing a company, but rather according to a multiple of the acreage a company owns. A bit like valuing dot coms on eyeballs rather than GAAP profits. It all depends on oil prices and the like I guess though.

There's a difference between a company being profitable (revenues>income) and being profitable to investors (stock goes up). Oil companies are profitable, but bad investments, especially long term.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#88

Post by reaperducer » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:08 PM UTC

derekp7 wrote: post #24

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

due to range anxiety.

It helps to be married. That way one spouse can have an electric vehicle for daily commuting or banging around town, and there's still the other spouse's gas-fueled car for longer trips.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#89

Post by tonyedgecombe » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:10 PM UTC

2trill2spill wrote: post #39

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Oil is not going away anytime soon. While there will be significantly more electric vehicles on the road in twenty years and gas and diesel vehicles will be much more efficient. There will still be millions and millions of vehicles burning gasoline and diesel. Plus that doesn't even factor in all the uses of oil outside of transportation and energy, for instance pharmaceuticals, plastics, nylon, polyester, asphalt, f…

I don't think anybody expects it to go away, what's interesting is what happens to the price if we dropped demand by 10 or 20% for instance. Would the price fall close to the cost of extraction or would supply restrict enough to keep it higher.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#90

Post by logfromblammo » Wed, Sep 12, 2018, 9:10 PM UTC

melling wrote: post #37

derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety? People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

250 miles is enough, when it only takes me $20 and 10 minutes to drive to a fueling station and pump the 8 gallons of gasoline required to take my range back up to full capacity.

It isn't enough when I need to find an outlet I can use legally--which will likely be NEMA 14-50 240V, if you can find one--and then spend an hour waiting for the charge to finish for every 20 to 30 miles I drove off my range. That's 8 hours. Lengthy, but doable for overnight. But I can't wait 8 hours every time I drive 4. My modal road trip is 700 miles, with an overnight at 420 miles (or 280 on the return). The current state of electric charging stations is such that I couldn't drive that trip with just "level 2" AC outlet charging.

If it's just a 120V outlet, it'll take 2.5 days to recharge 250 miles of range. The electricity will still cost much less than gasoline, of course, but road trips in the US can easily total thousands of miles. It's a big country, with lots of highways, crappy passenger train service, and airline service with increasing numbers of drawbacks.

DC fast charger networks are an absolute requirement to combat range anxiety. It isn't just how far you can drive at once, but how long it takes to refill your range. Your range circle shrinks as you drive, and you need to recharge before it gets too small to have a charging station in it. So you can't just drive out your full range. You still have to plan your hops between charging stations, and if those are 180 miles apart, any extra range below 360 miles won't make a difference, because you couldn't skip a charging opportunity otherwise.