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The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

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Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#31

Post by greglindahl »

chrisco255 wrote: post #26
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

Why would gas pumps not be gradually replaced with charging points?

Most people are going to charge at home (garage, parking lot, street charging point) or at work (garage, parking lot, street charging point.) That's not where gas stations are.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#32

Post by singularity2001 »

deagle50 wrote: post #10
enraged_camel wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point No, not really. They still have the ability to flood the market and cause prices to tank, which would wreak havoc on the US fracking industry.

I agree with what you said, they certainly can do that and you could argue the last crude crash was motivated by the US boom. The other argument is that Saudi Arabia's main objective is capturing as much profit as possible on all of their reserves before demand falls off a cliff vs strong-arming competition. They don't want to be stuck with huge deposits nobody wants in 30 years. It's their only export and they will…

> stuck with huge deposits nobody wants in 30 years.

isn't them running out of reserves a much bigger risk for them than them running out of customers?

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#33

Post by singularity2001 »

ddebernardy wrote: post #17

Good on them. But what a sorry state to be in, when global warming and sea level rise related problems already are a reality in Miami or - of all places - Norfolk's naval base.

10 cm are already a problem? did I miss some news / tides?

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#34

Post by dragonwriter »

chrisco255 wrote: post #26
derekp7 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

Why would gas pumps not be gradually replaced with charging points?

Because if you are driving a PHV all-electric, you are probably charging at home, gas is a long-term range extender. Sure, as all-electric displace PHVs, that rane extender role shifts to charging points, but the big drop in demand for out-of-network fueling/charging comes from basic commuting being met by in-home charging.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#35

Post by AnimalMuppet »

aphextron wrote: post #13
enraged_camel wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point No, not really. They still have the ability to flood the market and cause prices to tank, which would wreak havoc on the US fracking industry.

>No, not really. They still have the ability to flood the market and cause prices to tank, which would wreak havoc on the US fracking industry. ...And tank their own profits? Cheap oil is good for literally everyone but the Saudis, that's the entire reason they've cut supplies since the glut of 2014-15. US fracking is already barely at a fraction of capacity right now with how low prices are. It's not an essential in…

> Cheap oil is good for literally everyone but the Saudis, that's the entire reason they've cut supplies since the glut of 2014-15.

Everyone but the Saudis, and the Iranians, and the Russians, and the Venezuelans.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#36

Post by abawany »

enraged_camel wrote: post #7
aphextron wrote: post #5

It's been fascinating to watch Saudi influence wane over the last few years as this sinks in as the new reality. We live in a completely different power structure now from 20 years ago. They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point due to tar sands, renewables, and natural gas.

>> They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point No, not really. They still have the ability to flood the market and cause prices to tank, which would wreak havoc on the US fracking industry.

I think you are right. Their per barrel production costs were 1. http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#37

Post by melling »

derekp7 wrote: post #24
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Most people I talk with in my peer group wouldn't even think of getting an all-electric car (except maybe as a secondary vehicle), due to range anxiety. However, what I think will happen over the next 20 years (with battery improvement, etc) is more and more hybrids and plugin hybrids. For example, see Ford's plans starting in 2020. But the plugin hybrids won't be sold as "fuel efficient", but sold as "more powerful"…

How much range do people need before there's no longer range anxiety?

People used to complain about 200 miles not being enough then Tesla released 300 miles then they said that's not enough either.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#38

Post by singularity2001 »

e12e wrote: post #8
colechristensen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The link is to something maybe questionable, but the information source is the EIA, the same graph is on the front page of https://www.eia.gov/

Isn't that some sort of climate-change-denial organization now? I wonder if this mean the US will stop making war on oil rich nations, and instead have to contend with invasions now? Would certainly be a change. (in all seriousness, I'm not advocating wars of agression on anyone - for natural resources or other reasons)

same thought here *.gov == (risk of) denial % these days

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#39

Post by 2trill2spill »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #9
aphextron wrote: post #5

It's been fascinating to watch Saudi influence wane over the last few years as this sinks in as the new reality. We live in a completely different power structure now from 20 years ago. They're certainly still obscenely rich, but the power they had over geopolitics via OPEC is effectively gone at this point due to tar sands, renewables, and natural gas.

I wonder what the next 20 years will bring, especially with the shift to electric vehicles.

Oil is not going away anytime soon. While there will be significantly more electric vehicles on the road in twenty years and gas and diesel vehicles will be much more efficient. There will still be millions and millions of vehicles burning gasoline and diesel. Plus that doesn't even factor in all the uses of oil outside of transportation and energy, for instance pharmaceuticals, plastics, nylon, polyester, asphalt, fertilizer, cosmetics are all mostly petroleum based.

Re: The United States Is Now the Largest Global Crude Oil Producer

#40

Post by crunchlibrarian »

Energy independence achieved.

Except it hasn't been at all, because much of the oil is more profitable to sell and refine abroad than use domestically. So if we actually wanted to force independence we'd need to prohibit companies from exporting their oil.

I doubt that's ever happening. Watch the "energy independence" talking point evaporate now that the new millionaires have been minted. It's almost as if that's what it was always about, isn't it?

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