Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It • Hacker News Board

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#61

Post by noddy1w » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:44 AM UTC

lend000 wrote: post #41

qwtel wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…

Allegedly 90% lose money on trades, but 50% of the capital makes/loses money in a given market window (however most of the winning capital is owned by a smaller number of players than the losing capital, mostly banks, quant funds, and creative/smart/disciplined/lucky indie traders).

Not if the exchange has spreads and leverage. Even small spreads can screw your odds completely if you trade at margin, and gamblers bust means if you turn over your money a few times at high leverage you'll probably lose it all.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#62

Post by jamiek88 » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:48 AM UTC

saosebastiao wrote: post #47

ISL wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What stops big firms from automating a great many small trading strategies?

Honestly I have very little insight into how the bigger firms work. I've only ever done this by myself. But I can imagine that it's a lot harder to come up with 1000 strategies that don't compete with each other for the same opportunities than it would be to hire a team of geniuses that can build a single high capacity strategy.

How long have you been doing this?

Sounds like you are eyes wide open anyway.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#63

Post by oldandtired » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 4:55 AM UTC

toephu2 wrote: post #48

darksaints wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

You're an individual retail day trader? Come back to us in 10 years and lets see if you are still making money. Or rather lets see if you can beat the S&P 500 for 10 years straight.

There are some important rules when doing day trading.

1). never stop studying about what is going on

2). practise, practise, practise (otherwise known as paper trading) before you ever lay down any coinage

3). don't let emotions ever take you away from whatever strategy your paper trading comes up with

4). whatever the environment you had when you did your paper trades, don't allow that to change when you finally put some coinage down.

5). take a holiday from trading if the markets get too volatile (your definition of volatile applies here)

6). remember that many of your trades will lose coinage, it is up to you to determine what you put in place to mitigate this, others will make enough to cover these losses, if you keep to the rules you have.

7). if your success at paper trading does not see the same success in coinage trading, stop and do a complete review of what has happened and go back to paper trading.

8). keep meticulous records of all your trades, paper or real and continually look for further insights into yourself as you do this.

9). continually look at what your goals are and why you are doing this.

10).don't spend any coinage that you cannot afford to spend on this, in other words, keep calm and steady.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#64

Post by blackoil » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:01 AM UTC

marketgod wrote: post #45

gricardo99 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Omg, this is so meta. In the comments on a post about guys running a shady day trading site is a guy trying to hawk another shady day trading site? I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. This HN crowd is usually pretty skeptical and you’re making wild claims.

Shady trading site ;) If people want to pay me money to make money like I am making it, I am not going to say no. If you reject peoples money, that's absurd. I am not saying, come pay me, I am saying, if you want to make money, come pay me. If you want to sit on the sidelines, then feel free to do so. I am not trying to make a sale, I am trying to make a point. I would love for a Warren Buffet, or anyone else, to com…

Why does the site has 4 movie clips of shady people? SEO or to weed out false positives or just because.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#65

Post by jerkstate » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:04 AM UTC

darksaints wrote: post #42

qwtel wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

Nice. You know the market has been in a historic long bull run these past 9 or so years, right?

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#66

Post by saosebastiao » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:05 AM UTC

toephu2 wrote: post #48

darksaints wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

You're an individual retail day trader? Come back to us in 10 years and lets see if you are still making money. Or rather lets see if you can beat the S&P 500 for 10 years straight.

Formula 1 cars probably couldn't even beat a Vespa in a 3000 mile endurance race. Does that mean f1 cars are slow? Does that mean Vespas are fast?

Comparing returns between income-oriented day traders and compounding-orieted mutual funds is like comparing top speed between f1 cars and endurance cars. You can certainly do it, but you're not doing anything worthwhile with your time by doing so. My strategy has high returns but low capacity and no compounding potential...simply put, I'm not competing against the S&P 500, I'm making an income. In fact, most of my excess returns end up in SPY.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#67

Post by Timmah » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:07 AM UTC

jerkstate wrote: post #65

darksaints wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

Nice. You know the market has been in a historic long bull run these past 9 or so years, right?

He never said he's making money on long positions though. Options allow you to buy and sell volatility, and short underlying securities.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#68

Post by Timmah » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:10 AM UTC

toephu2 wrote: post #48

darksaints wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

You're an individual retail day trader? Come back to us in 10 years and lets see if you are still making money. Or rather lets see if you can beat the S&P 500 for 10 years straight.

I would happily make money for n-years and lose for one, provided the amount lost was a fraction of what I earned.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#69

Post by saosebastiao » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:12 AM UTC

jerkstate wrote: post #65

darksaints wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

Nice. You know the market has been in a historic long bull run these past 9 or so years, right?

I trade futures and currencies. Short positions happen about as frequently as long positions. My average trade lasts less than 5 minutes. Macro trends don't really affect my strategy outside of the fact that I tend to watch Fed and ECB news announcements as a way of predicting short term volatility.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#70

Post by Timmah » Fri, Sep 07, 2018, 5:12 AM UTC

ISL wrote: post #44

darksaints wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

What stops big firms from automating a great many small trading strategies?

Because one strategy returning $50-100k a year is a pittance to an investment bank. And (I bet) those strategies require a lot of manual intervention. Plus the risk value if they go haywire.