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Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

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Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#41

Post by lend000 »

qwtel wrote: post #32
anonu wrote: post #25

I was a trader at a big bank for many years. The tools and access I had there put me in a different class of trader that very few other firms or individuals can attain. There is such information and technology asymmetry in this business - its not worth trying to day trade as an individual. Buy and hold forever... only way to invest.

I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…

Allegedly 90% lose money on trades, but 50% of the capital makes/loses money in a given market window (however most of the winning capital is owned by a smaller number of players than the losing capital, mostly banks, quant funds, and creative/smart/disciplined/lucky indie traders).

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#42

Post by darksaints »

qwtel wrote: post #32
anonu wrote: post #25

I was a trader at a big bank for many years. The tools and access I had there put me in a different class of trader that very few other firms or individuals can attain. There is such information and technology asymmetry in this business - its not worth trying to day trade as an individual. Buy and hold forever... only way to invest.

I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds.

The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would slip 25 ticks before filling completely. My strategy can't and won't ever scale to that level...it would degrade to negative profitability likely with two or three million dollars of daily volume. Effectively this means I have major limits to compounding...like most day traders, I merely skim returns off of a fixed amount of capital.

So yeah, I do well enough for myself, and there are thousands of traders just like me. The quant firms may be on another level, but it's not because they have better returns than you can get as a day trader, it's because they have better capacity.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#43

Post by lend000 »

marketgod wrote: post #36
gricardo99 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you’re joking. The level of sophistication is insane: microwave networks tuned down to nearly theoretical min latencies, specialized hardware systems where teams worry about shaving nanoseconds, data cleansing teams, research teams, automated news/sentiment analysis... And that’s on top of all their non-technological advantages: connections on the street, getting preferential deals with exchanges, banks, broke…

Not joking. I don't need the sophistication, I trade options and I don't need instant orders, or to be near the exchange. I don't need insider information because I can already see what's going to happen with a high probability. You can view my profile, sign up for a trial and see it for yourself. I don't care about fees, taxes, or any of that because it's inconsequential to me.

A good indication that you aren't a great trader is that you try to sell services based on being a great trader.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#44

Post by ISL »

darksaints wrote: post #42
qwtel wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

What stops big firms from automating a great many small trading strategies?

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#45

Post by marketgod »

gricardo99 wrote: post #40
marketgod wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not joking. I don't need the sophistication, I trade options and I don't need instant orders, or to be near the exchange. I don't need insider information because I can already see what's going to happen with a high probability. You can view my profile, sign up for a trial and see it for yourself. I don't care about fees, taxes, or any of that because it's inconsequential to me.

Omg, this is so meta. In the comments on a post about guys running a shady day trading site is a guy trying to hawk another shady day trading site? I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. This HN crowd is usually pretty skeptical and you’re making wild claims.

Shady trading site ;) If people want to pay me money to make money like I am making it, I am not going to say no. If you reject peoples money, that's absurd. I am not saying, come pay me, I am saying, if you want to make money, come pay me. If you want to sit on the sidelines, then feel free to do so. I am not trying to make a sale, I am trying to make a point. I would love for a Warren Buffet, or anyone else, to come challenge me. I will destroy them. :) If anyone wants to post their returns at a trade deks, I will beat it in 2018/2019

No, my claims are not wild, maybe being the best is, but being profitable is easy. If you don't think so, you haven't done your due diligence. There are hundreds of people that are profitable, how do you think I learned?

Also, as to the HN crowd being skeptical, I think one person already subscribed and made enough to pay his subscription, we will see how they do for the rest of the year. Also skeptical is good, I want skeptics, because I like silencing my skeptics and trolls.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#46

Post by stouset »

marketgod wrote: post #36
gricardo99 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you’re joking. The level of sophistication is insane: microwave networks tuned down to nearly theoretical min latencies, specialized hardware systems where teams worry about shaving nanoseconds, data cleansing teams, research teams, automated news/sentiment analysis... And that’s on top of all their non-technological advantages: connections on the street, getting preferential deals with exchanges, banks, broke…

Not joking. I don't need the sophistication, I trade options and I don't need instant orders, or to be near the exchange. I don't need insider information because I can already see what's going to happen with a high probability. You can view my profile, sign up for a trial and see it for yourself. I don't care about fees, taxes, or any of that because it's inconsequential to me.

If you had a strategy that worked, you would not be looking for competition.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#47

Post by saosebastiao »

ISL wrote: post #44
darksaints wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

What stops big firms from automating a great many small trading strategies?

Honestly I have very little insight into how the bigger firms work. I've only ever done this by myself. But I can imagine that it's a lot harder to come up with 1000 strategies that don't compete with each other for the same opportunities than it would be to hire a team of geniuses that can build a single high capacity strategy.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#48

Post by toephu2 »

darksaints wrote: post #42
qwtel wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to believe there’s any day trader using any kind of information making a consistent profit. Isn’t everybody just dabbling around hoping to be in the 50% that outperform by chance? i’ve read about ed thorp pioneering statistical arbitrage in the 80s (?) which would fit the bill of “consistent returns”, but I doubt that there is any of that left close to 50 years later. I’m wondering what all these quant…

FWIW, I'm day trading and I'm making consistent returns, well above the rates of most mutual funds and hedge funds. The caveat is what most fund managers would call capacity. My trading strategy can't scale without severe cuts in those returns. It's extremely easy to buy 10 contracts and hold for 5 ticks. I've never experienced slippage at all. Operating at mutual fund sizes, I would be trading at volumes that would…

You're an individual retail day trader? Come back to us in 10 years and lets see if you are still making money. Or rather lets see if you can beat the S&P 500 for 10 years straight.

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#49

Post by [deleted] »

abakker wrote: post #12
thaumasiotes wrote: post #2

I think the subtitle is much more informative: > Boiler room guys knew customers were going to lose their money, so they allegedly spent it themselves. But it was also illegally long.

you just gotta love Matt Levine headlines, though. The title is as much a play on his constant "laws of insider trading" running gags and part of his daily newsletter.

[deleted]

Re: Don't Steal Money from Day Traders Before They Lose It

#50

Post by toephu2 »

marketgod wrote: post #35

How much do you want to make per year? How much do you want to start with? What kind of return do you want each year on the initial investment? Believe it. I do make it consistently.

Anyone can make money in a bull market.

I seriously doubt you have been beating the S&P 500 for the past 20 years day trading.

and I don't care about your results if you've only been doing it and gotten lucky for the past 5 years.

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