How to Make a Big Decision • Hacker News Board

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#81

Post by isoskeles » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 4:08 PM UTC

gowld wrote: post #64

bopbop wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an excellent quote, thank you. Having said that, my take on that quote is that it seems a bit of a cop out - a way of absolving oneself of the consequences of ones actions. You may well regret both, but perhaps you will also enjoy one, or you will regret one less, or regret one more, or one has ramifications which due to your (hypothetical) selfish nature you may regret but are better for society, etc etc etc.…

Kierkegaard was the original "emo" nihilist. "Adding your own breth to the winds of fate" is adding 0 to 0.

Kierkegaard is usually considered the original existentialist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existentialism#Confusion_with_...

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#82

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 4:15 PM UTC

gowld wrote: post #62

grasshopperpurp wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of like Frost's "The Road Not Taken." Many think it's about how he made a bold decision that "made all the difference," but it's really about how it didn't matter which road he took. Though as for that the passing there / Had worn them really about the same

That's not what the poem is saying. The poem is saying two things: 1. The line you quoted: Even though one of the paths looks special, in fact both are well-trodden paths. The walker is making a decision on imaginary evidence. The poem is mocking the poor decision-making process and retroactive rationalization. 2. (granted, not in the text, but in the context). The poem is about Frost's friend Thomas having trouble d…

[deleted]

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#83

Post by lordnacho » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 4:18 PM UTC

> Over the years, Professor Nutt and other researchers have demonstrated a strong correlation between the number of alternatives deliberated and the ultimate success of the decision itself. In one of his studies, Professor Nutt found that participants who considered only one alternative ultimately judged their decision a failure more than 50 percent of the time, while decisions that involved contemplating at least two alternatives were felt to be successes two-thirds of the time.

I'm sure something gets lost in journalistic summary, but isn't there an alternative explanation for this? If you're contemplating a choice, and there are many things that seem plausible, it's because there are many acceptable outcomes. So it's not because you've thought about a lot of choices that you make a good choice, but that if something is going to go well, chances are there's many ways for it to go well?

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#84

Post by inimino » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 4:25 PM UTC

rohit89 wrote: post #38

BeniBoy wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems reckless to get your life advice from the richest person in the world without taking survivorship bias into account[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

Not sure that is applicable here. His advice is basically to minimize potential regret. A variation of "better to try and fail than never try at all".

...from someone who tried and succeeded.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#85

Post by advertising » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 4:40 PM UTC

When I can’t decide I tell myself I will leave it to a coin flip and commit to that outcome. As soon as I see what side the coin landed on I know exactly what I wanted. This usually works anyway.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#86

Post by zo1 » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 4:43 PM UTC

aedron wrote: post #26

I know people here aren't big on religion, but just as a perspective (no worse than Jeff Bezos I guess): In Islam there is a certain prayer you are supposed to say before making a big decision. You ask God's guidance for it, that you'll do what's good for you in this life and the next, and so on. The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately. It's like deep down you already…

>"The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately."

The one adage I heard that's very similar: Decide to base your decision on a simple coin-flip. Throw it, and cover it so you don't see what side it landed on. You'll know very quickly which option you're hoping to see under that hand.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#87

Post by grasshopperpurp » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 5:50 PM UTC

gowld wrote: post #62

grasshopperpurp wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of like Frost's "The Road Not Taken." Many think it's about how he made a bold decision that "made all the difference," but it's really about how it didn't matter which road he took. Though as for that the passing there / Had worn them really about the same

That's not what the poem is saying. The poem is saying two things: 1. The line you quoted: Even though one of the paths looks special, in fact both are well-trodden paths. The walker is making a decision on imaginary evidence. The poem is mocking the poor decision-making process and retroactive rationalization. 2. (granted, not in the text, but in the context). The poem is about Frost's friend Thomas having trouble d…

Appreciate the correction. I dislike poetry that is not self-contained (and Frost in general), but I guess that would have been common knowledge at the time. I do like Thomas's 'Adlestrop.' It's unfortunate, and probably unsurprising, that Frost meant it in that way, because it cheapens it, but it is what it is.

>The walker should have used the rigorous method the article proposes.

Curious how you'd justify this statement with the text.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#88

Post by ivankirigin » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 6:13 PM UTC

teabee89 wrote: post #75

rosstex wrote: post #2

This deserves the king of making decisions: https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/09/marriage-decision.html

Interesting WaitButWhy, but in my opinion, the real big decision is about children, not marriage. The difference of responsibility is light years apart. Marriage can be undone.

Kids and money are the biggest reasons for divorce. Get on the same page about both while you're dating. If someone can't handle an open conversation, they won't make a good partner.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#89

Post by markc » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 8:37 PM UTC

vfinn wrote: post #60

aplummer wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just wanted to say j strange is my favourite novel, read it at least 10 times!

You mean the novelist(?) Ian J. Strange? Which novel?

The novel is "Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell"

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#90

Post by Pamar » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:08 PM UTC

vfinn wrote: post #70

Pamar wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have written a bit about this matter, from the point of view of using I-Ching as your "decision support tool"... https://www.pa-mar.net/Lifestyle/I-Ching.html

Thanks. I find it funny that some people who consider themselves rational and open minded are very easily discarding methods like this as superstition without hearing out what you actually have to say. I believe Tarot cards are a somewhat similar way of gaining understanding of your own preferences.

In my opinion yes, any kind of oracle that gives you ambiguous answers is more or less equivalent: I Ching for me is convenient because it gives a relatively compact result (while doing tarot reading requires you to pore over a dozen or so cards and all their relationships, which to me risks to muddle things up).