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How to Make a Big Decision

nytimes.com

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Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#51

Post by bena »

coldtea wrote: post #40
mongol wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes the coin thing is really good. If you want to flip again, then you know what option you prefer.

> If you want to flip again, then you know what option you prefer. Nope. Of course if you see A coming originally and don't want to flip again, then we know that you're OK with A. But if you do want to flip again, then you just know that you don't prefer A -- you can't deduce from that that you want B. You can still: (a) prefer B (b) dislike both

I see this judging Magic: the Gathering a lot. Players will sit there staring at their hand, mulling over various options, all of them bad. And they hesitate to make a play because once they make a play, bad stuff happens. They're constantly trying to convince themselves there's another "good" option if they just stare at their cards long enough.

Nope. All your choices are bad. Make a play.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#52

Post by bopbop »

runesoerensen wrote: post #13

"In July 1838, Charles Darwin, then 29, sat down to make a decision that would alter the course of his life [...] Should he get married?" Incidentally, Kierkegaard kinda tried to answer this question 5 years later in Either/Or. A couple of related snippets: "I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations — one can either do this or that. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do…

That's an excellent quote, thank you.

Having said that, my take on that quote is that it seems a bit of a cop out - a way of absolving oneself of the consequences of ones actions.

You may well regret both, but perhaps you will also enjoy one, or you will regret one less, or regret one more, or one has ramifications which due to your (hypothetical) selfish nature you may regret but are better for society, etc etc etc.

Or is it meant to be more of a call to action as opposed to inaction? Make decisions, because you are damned regardless, so at least add your own breath to the winds of fate?

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#53

Post by abakker »

bena wrote: post #51
coldtea wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you want to flip again, then you know what option you prefer. Nope. Of course if you see A coming originally and don't want to flip again, then we know that you're OK with A. But if you do want to flip again, then you just know that you don't prefer A -- you can't deduce from that that you want B. You can still: (a) prefer B (b) dislike both

I see this judging Magic: the Gathering a lot. Players will sit there staring at their hand, mulling over various options, all of them bad. And they hesitate to make a play because once they make a play, bad stuff happens. They're constantly trying to convince themselves there's another "good" option if they just stare at their cards long enough. Nope. All your choices are bad. Make a play.

I think this is a great point generally. People are frequently forced into making one of a number of bad choices. Human circumstance almost always gives us that problem. It is in those situations where “trying to be strategic” really holds us up. Sometimes, things suck in the short run and have no long term value either. I think acknowledging this is why some people can make snap judgements in that situation while others sit in denial.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#54

Post by thrav »

Steve44 wrote: post #25
jedberg wrote: post #4

The Freakonomics guys did a paper on this. Basically, their conclusion was just do it, make the big change. Their experiment was based on coin flips and self-reported happiness, but basically those who made the big change after the coin told them to reported being substantially happier, and if you dive into the data, you'll see that those that went with the biggest decisions (quit a job, get married) saw a double dig…

Two personal anecdotes related to this. I've made what seem to be four major career decisions in my life. Aged 14 at school I was in tears because I couldn't do one of the O levels I desperately wanted, the school pretty much forced me onto this new Computer Studies course they'd just started running. As a direct result it grabbed me and I worked in the games industry for a good few years. In my late 20s a friend off…

I find that tossing the coin reveals the answer, as I typically start rooting for one side the second it goes up in the air.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#55

Post by mhb »

jedberg wrote: post #4

The Freakonomics guys did a paper on this. Basically, their conclusion was just do it, make the big change. Their experiment was based on coin flips and self-reported happiness, but basically those who made the big change after the coin told them to reported being substantially happier, and if you dive into the data, you'll see that those that went with the biggest decisions (quit a job, get married) saw a double dig…

Is this just confirming that status quo bias exists?

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#56

Post by emodendroket »

aedron wrote: post #26

I know people here aren't big on religion, but just as a perspective (no worse than Jeff Bezos I guess): In Islam there is a certain prayer you are supposed to say before making a big decision. You ask God's guidance for it, that you'll do what's good for you in this life and the next, and so on. The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately. It's like deep down you already…

I've watched my wife waffle for ages on decisions she'd clearly already made in her heart of hearts so many times I think you may be on to something.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#57

Post by emodendroket »

bopbop wrote: post #52
runesoerensen wrote: post #13

"In July 1838, Charles Darwin, then 29, sat down to make a decision that would alter the course of his life [...] Should he get married?" Incidentally, Kierkegaard kinda tried to answer this question 5 years later in Either/Or. A couple of related snippets: "I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations — one can either do this or that. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do…

That's an excellent quote, thank you. Having said that, my take on that quote is that it seems a bit of a cop out - a way of absolving oneself of the consequences of ones actions. You may well regret both, but perhaps you will also enjoy one, or you will regret one less, or regret one more, or one has ramifications which due to your (hypothetical) selfish nature you may regret but are better for society, etc etc etc.…

Most of us end up constructing a narrative where whatever choices we made were the right ones, unless they go so disastrously wrong that we can't fool ourselves. So why agonize so much?

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#58

Post by gowld »

Feeble wrote: post #48
aedron wrote: post #26

I know people here aren't big on religion, but just as a perspective (no worse than Jeff Bezos I guess): In Islam there is a certain prayer you are supposed to say before making a big decision. You ask God's guidance for it, that you'll do what's good for you in this life and the next, and so on. The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately. It's like deep down you already…

But this is exactly the fallacy described in the article where you only really explore your own biased solution. The article gives an alternative way of exploring more potential solutions instead of going for the one thing that feels right at the moment.

No, it's not quite. The parent is talking about making the final decision, which is complementary to the process of researching solutions.

But it's still subject to the biases associated with gut feel -- primacy, recency, selectionl; that can be countered with the article's "shut up and calculate".

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#59

Post by curo »

Feeble wrote: post #48
aedron wrote: post #26

I know people here aren't big on religion, but just as a perspective (no worse than Jeff Bezos I guess): In Islam there is a certain prayer you are supposed to say before making a big decision. You ask God's guidance for it, that you'll do what's good for you in this life and the next, and so on. The funny thing is that when you do that, you almost always make up your mind immediately. It's like deep down you already…

But this is exactly the fallacy described in the article where you only really explore your own biased solution. The article gives an alternative way of exploring more potential solutions instead of going for the one thing that feels right at the moment.

I follow a prayer-like process for some life choices. Heart Gut Mind (colloquial terms). The article advocates ways for the mind to check the gut. But perhaps the person commenting is saying there's a direct way to get a good answer.

In a state of contemplation for instance, fears and self-centered cravings have less of an influence over decision making. The mind might be great at identifying Kahneman-style cognitive biases (or in the case of the article, imagining failure conditions), but a deep, silent awareness can help inoculate the biggest biases of all: fear & craving.

Re: How to Make a Big Decision

#60

Post by vfinn »

aplummer wrote: post #28
jonathanstrange wrote: post #22

This is an interesting story, but it's also odd that it doesn't mention any of the standard work on decision making (e.g. Savage), no multiattribute decision making/multiattribute utility theory and all the variations thereof such as lexicographic decision making, nontransitive preferences, generalized additive decomposition, and other nonstandard models of decision making (like e.g. in Fishburn's seminal work or Sch…

I just wanted to say j strange is my favourite novel, read it at least 10 times!

You mean the novelist(?) Ian J. Strange? Which novel?
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