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Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

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Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#101

Post by astura »

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #74
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street" I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

There's no physical reason why there can't be municipal on street charging, even if it's "pay to charge." Think like parking meters.

There just needs to be a demand for the initial infrastructure to be built.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#102

Post by stellar678 »

azeotropic wrote: post #71
stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

America is not the Bay Area. Those short trips are across town to pick up the kids at school or take them to sports or go grocery shopping or other errands. In the snow. Uphill. Both ways. Nobody is going to use a scooter or an e-bike for that. If someone made an electric minivan, sure, that might soak up most of those trips, but for some reason nobody makes one.

Well, if you say so.

Clearly your opinion about people's travel has a lot more validity than the research conducted by the American (err, United States) Federal Highway Administration.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#103

Post by HarryHirsch »

azeotropic wrote: post #71
stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

America is not the Bay Area. Those short trips are across town to pick up the kids at school or take them to sports or go grocery shopping or other errands. In the snow. Uphill. Both ways. Nobody is going to use a scooter or an e-bike for that. If someone made an electric minivan, sure, that might soak up most of those trips, but for some reason nobody makes one.

It would be progress if the kids could get their own electric scooter to go to school or soccer training. It would increase their social skills, it can't be good to be dependent on the parents for everything when cooped up in an exurban paradise.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#104

Post by ThrowawayR2 »

jblow wrote: post #57
sfifs wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the obvious answer is parking spots will need to get electrified. Most new condos where I live already come with enough electrical provision pre-planned to electrify parking spots if needed and old ones are considering adding provisions. Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging, so smart plug based billing will likely be the way these things will go. Since electric cars A…

> Household wiring will anyway not have enough current capacity to support charging citation needed

Perhaps he's referring to the recommendations that Tesla has: "We recommend installing the Wall Connector with a power output to match the on-board charger of the vehicle, typically a 40, 60 or 90 amp circuit breaker."

https://www.tesla.com/support/home-charging-installation#wal...

For comparison, the average home circuit is rated for 15 amps.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#105

Post by stellar678 »

ObsoleteNerd wrote: post #76
stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

I never thought of that. Are there the same moves in tiny electric hatchbacks (eg kei sized, not Leafs), scooters, mopeds, etc as there is currently in fullsize cars? I'd love a high quality electric moped to run down the shops and pick up milk and bread, or pick something up from the post office. All I've seen is those cheap plastic electric mopeds that people get from eBay/Aliexpress or Costco. I don't remember see…

It's a good point that design and manufacturing quality are an important component here.

I know the e-scooters used by Lime and Bird have seen a pretty quick iteration, and the models they have on the streets now are a lot better than the ones they had when they launched in my city just a few months ago.

In terms of in-between vehicles, I haven't seen too much yet. Our current street designs (at least in most of the US) make it really hard to operate a vehicle that is too small/slow to share the big & high speed lanes and intersections, but too large to move onto sidewalks or pedestrian spaces when you need to fill the gaps between safer/slower infrastructure.

You could look at what they drive around the retirement communities, seems to be a lot of designs that use a golf cart as a starting point.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#106

Post by greglindahl »

syntaxing wrote: post #96
greglindahl wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of those things are already happening in parts of the US.

Hmm, I have I only heard about statewide efforts. Even statewide, only a couple of states are investing in this technology (CA, NY, and TX). Are there federal incentives that I overlooked?

Uh, no? Not sure how you thought that my mention of "parts of the US" might mean federal.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#107

Post by falcolas »

telchar wrote: post #75
Merad wrote: post #49

I don’t see EVs taking off for average Americans until there’s an exponential increase in charging infrastructure. I live in a place where it would make great sense to have an EV (only commute 12 miles each day), but I can’t charge at home (townhouse) and I’m not aware of any chargers in my immediate area. There’s also the issue of travel, meaning an EV can’t really be your only car or else you need to be prepared to…

I think you're underestimating the Tesla supercharger network. It basically solves both of those problems (if you have a Tesla) and live in the vicinity of one - if you don't live near one then it still solves the second issue. The infrastructure is expanding rapidly, so your "unless" is a fairly safe bet.

What do you do if you don’t have a Tesla? They’re not exactly a mass produced value car. And that’s what you need for real penetration to the car market.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#108

Post by greglindahl »

syntaxing wrote: post #93
mrfusion wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ITT people who haven’t heard of Tesla’s supercharger network.

There's about 10K supercharging stations in the US. There's amount 168K gas stations. The amount of super chargers is probably about the same as the measurement error for the 168K estimate.

Sorry, what's the purpose of this comment? Tesla has < 1% market share today, so it's hard to imagine why there would be a large number of superchargers today relative to gas stations.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#109

Post by stellar678 »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #103
azeotropic wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is not the Bay Area. Those short trips are across town to pick up the kids at school or take them to sports or go grocery shopping or other errands. In the snow. Uphill. Both ways. Nobody is going to use a scooter or an e-bike for that. If someone made an electric minivan, sure, that might soak up most of those trips, but for some reason nobody makes one.

It would be progress if the kids could get their own electric scooter to go to school or soccer training. It would increase their social skills, it can't be good to be dependent on the parents for everything when cooped up in an exurban paradise.

Excellent point!

California just passed a bill that won't allow high school or middle school to start earlier than 8:30am because there is reams of research showing that early starts cause worse learning and development outcomes.

Lots of people are up in arms because they need their kids' schedule to fit around their work schedule so they can drive them everywhere.

Somehow it's just too hard for them to envision setting things up so the kids are safe with a greater level of autonomy and can maybe get themselves to school.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#110

Post by neap24 »

stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

Totally agree. I just ordered an e-bike a few days ago because a lightweight, flexible vehicle that can travel with ease in a bike lane or on a sidewalk is much more appealing to me than investing in another car and everything that comes along with it (insurance, registration, inspections, etc.).
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