>You're using "I don't believe in markets" as a justification for not regulating something
If that’s the case I’m doing it wrong, since I believe the opposite. Good regulations with the ability to verify easily make markets work.
>The potential increase is independent of the percentage decrease.
Agree, it’s matter of what the mix is. Higher power gen, with a smaller coal/oil mix in big relative and absolute terms is also. Possibility. I don’t believe it is, but it remains a possible outcome.
>You only burn oil when there is more demand than supply, which are exactly the times that price-sensitive users will discontinue their usage.
I am wary that this will cleave so cleanly.
>It's possible to use biofuels for this. Also, you can make ships run on anything. Wood, garbage, batteries, wind, plutonium. If it can generate torque, thrust or steam it can power a ship.
But those aren’t there yet and oil is still the best and economic option
So change will not come here, without a break through technology.
>You keep saying that it would reduce growth.
Well yes - you are focused only on power. But I’m looking around me and an actual, effective working carbon tax aimed at saving the environment would hit every industry, not just power.
For example most of the products made in my country don’t necessarily come from places that follow regulations.
Working regulations would necessarily make those products more expensive and that would mean many jobs lost, marginal business shut, and and overall increase in costs of goods.
The cost of compliance with just air regulations norms for engines increased the price significantly. This resulted in many hacks or workarounds which harm the engine but superficially match the new norms.
Another example - we recently saw a major city try and ban plastic (yet again), but it would result in many street vendors and stores being unable to package liquid goods.
India is famously cost sensitive, and price advantages often completely override quality advantages. People developed single use washing powder sachets, and created an entirely new market.
But if the cost of carbon cleanup was added to those sachets, they would not be viable products at all.
All of those represent the razor thin margins needed to ensure the economy in india Grows.
There’s no way in our economy, to keep growth and the environment safe.
So while we are moving to alternate sources of power, it’s not stopping the other sources of pollution.