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Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

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Re: Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

#121
post #14

We're going on holiday to the Great Barrier Reef in a few months. I think it's quite likely to be the first and last time I see it in any state worth visiting for many years. Irrespective of how successful or unsuccessful the far-rights are in maintaining Australia's CO2 emission levels, I believe it's already too late - we've crossed from 'recovery is possible' to 'rebuilding is the only way' and that will take deca…

The far right have been advocating or at least partial to Nuclear power since as far back as the late Howard government in '07. Cory Bernardi has a bill before the Senate right now titled "Nuclear Fuel Cycle (Facilitation) Bill 2017". France with nuclear remains the first world country with the cheapest, cleanest, and probably safest power. There is no branch of politics committed to "maintaining Australia's CO2 emis…

> The far right have been advocating or at least partial to Nuclear power since as far back as the late Howard government in '07.

The Howard government commissioned the Switkowski report and one of the core findings was that nuclear power wouldn't be viable unless we had a carbon price of at least (from memory) 50c/tonne if CO2e.

When the far right are in favor of a carbon price which is a necessary pre-requite I'll believe they're in favor of maintaining our CO2 emission levels.

Re: Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

#122
post #41
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most projections are for about 10 billion people by 2050. Even if the population stopped growing today developing countries are rapidly modernising. A few billion people soon to be middle class consumers. The world can't cope with every Chinese person consuming as much as the average American, and they are quickly moving down that path, meat and dairy consumption is a good example of this.

Yes, that was exactly my point. India too, and Southeast Asia generally. Maybe even substantial parts of Africa. As far as global climate change goes, we ain't seen nothing yet :(

Hopefully starting afresh they can avoid some of the developed worlds mistakes like power generation lock-in and poorly planned car based cities.

But when it comes to meat consumption, making concrete and airline travel there's currently no way around the huge emissions. Air travel has been growing at 6% for decades now with no sign of stopping and makes up a significant chunk of global emissions.

I have no solutions but feel people are underestimating how hard this problem is to fix.

Re: Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All of our plastics come from oil though. But that doesn't (inherently) emit CO2 so it isn't subject to a carbon tax. It should actually make plastics cheaper because they won't have to compete with power plants for oil. > Renewables will help significantly in reducing the power plant power issue. Sure. But we haven’t solved the storage problem, which means that at night we need gas/coal. When there’s no wind we ne…

> Markets are good at fixing things I'm too old to believe "Markets will fix it" anymore, now I need to see the fine print, and then figure out how the economic game will look after the third play through. Secondly, this doesn't obviate the need for additional power - you will still be burning coal/etc. You will use it less as a % of total power output. But if your power output increases (which it will, since most of…

> I'm too old to believe "Markets will fix it" anymore, now I need to see the fine print, and then figure out how the economic game will look after the third play through.

You're using "I don't believe in markets" as a justification for not regulating something.

> Secondly, this doesn't obviate the need for additional power - you will still be burning coal/etc. You will use it less as a % of total power output. But if your power output increases (which it will, since most of humanity doesn't have power today), you are still looking at a potential increase.

The potential increase is independent of the percentage decrease. If total consumption doubles while the share of fossil fuels drops from 50% to 5%, total fossil fuel use has gone down. Even if total consumption increases by more, you still have proportionally less fossil fuel usage than you would have with the same increase in consumption and no decrease in the ratio of fossil fuels.

> More cheap power means more use of that power. Imagine millions more tamagotchis, or fans which can be kept running nonstop, or other items which are now affordable because power is cheaper.

You only burn oil when there is more demand than supply, which are exactly the times that price-sensitive users will discontinue their usage.

> However, flight and shipping will remain oil based.

It's possible to use biofuels for this. Also, you can make ships run on anything. Wood, garbage, batteries, wind, plutonium. If it can generate torque, thrust or steam it can power a ship.

> Those consumers need jobs, an effective carbon tax would severely harm growth prospects, and thus job creation in an economy.

You keep saying that it would reduce growth. How is taking billions of dollars that would have gone to unfriendly countries and instead using it to hire a million domestic workers to build renewable energy infrastructure, all while energy prices remain the same or go down, supposed to reduce growth?

Re: Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn’t dump a truckload of baking soda?

Just in case you're serious, I think you would need to dump an entire small dwarf planet worth of baking soda which would probably have other negative consequences.

It’s cheap. We produce a small moon worth of CO2 each year.

Re: Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Markets are good at fixing things I'm too old to believe "Markets will fix it" anymore, now I need to see the fine print, and then figure out how the economic game will look after the third play through. Secondly, this doesn't obviate the need for additional power - you will still be burning coal/etc. You will use it less as a % of total power output. But if your power output increases (which it will, since most of…

> I'm too old to believe "Markets will fix it" anymore, now I need to see the fine print, and then figure out how the economic game will look after the third play through. You're using "I don't believe in markets" as a justification for not regulating something. > Secondly, this doesn't obviate the need for additional power - you will still be burning coal/etc. You will use it less as a % of total power output. But i…

>You're using "I don't believe in markets" as a justification for not regulating something

If that’s the case I’m doing it wrong, since I believe the opposite. Good regulations with the ability to verify easily make markets work.

>The potential increase is independent of the percentage decrease.

Agree, it’s matter of what the mix is. Higher power gen, with a smaller coal/oil mix in big relative and absolute terms is also. Possibility. I don’t believe it is, but it remains a possible outcome.

>You only burn oil when there is more demand than supply, which are exactly the times that price-sensitive users will discontinue their usage.

I am wary that this will cleave so cleanly.

>It's possible to use biofuels for this. Also, you can make ships run on anything. Wood, garbage, batteries, wind, plutonium. If it can generate torque, thrust or steam it can power a ship.

But those aren’t there yet and oil is still the best and economic option

So change will not come here, without a break through technology.

>You keep saying that it would reduce growth.

Well yes - you are focused only on power. But I’m looking around me and an actual, effective working carbon tax aimed at saving the environment would hit every industry, not just power.

For example most of the products made in my country don’t necessarily come from places that follow regulations.

Working regulations would necessarily make those products more expensive and that would mean many jobs lost, marginal business shut, and and overall increase in costs of goods.

The cost of compliance with just air regulations norms for engines increased the price significantly. This resulted in many hacks or workarounds which harm the engine but superficially match the new norms.

Another example - we recently saw a major city try and ban plastic (yet again), but it would result in many street vendors and stores being unable to package liquid goods.

India is famously cost sensitive, and price advantages often completely override quality advantages. People developed single use washing powder sachets, and created an entirely new market.

But if the cost of carbon cleanup was added to those sachets, they would not be viable products at all.

All of those represent the razor thin margins needed to ensure the economy in india Grows.

There’s no way in our economy, to keep growth and the environment safe.

So while we are moving to alternate sources of power, it’s not stopping the other sources of pollution.

Re: Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the link (I will read it shortly), but I was specifically referring to folks who go around spreading the "OMG, climate change - we're all doomed!" mantra, which is borderline psychotic thinking. But it's basically one ("Repent ye, for the end is nigh!") which has historically been quite effective, as thousands of years of fear-based religious-type dogma will attest. Frankly, at this point I'm not sure what…

No I read it in 2015. Ok I think I got what you meant - yes, there are some people who see the headlines and ONLY the headlines. That’s something that applies to laymen- despair in the experts and scientists themselves ? That’s unheard of. And this isn’t the only article or source. I’m not sure what you mean by “calling this stuff out.” We are going to see the barrier reef die in our life time. Even the weakest carbo…

Oh wow, looky here! Yet another reef system out there which scientists didn't even know existed. Now I half-way expect them to say (as they have about some other recently discovered reefs) that this reef shouldn't even be able to exist at that location. Imagine that: scientists' current understanding of reef ecology may be woefully lacking!

http://www.thegoogleblog.com/science/scientists-discover-hid...

A prior discovery:

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-07/fsu-frm07141...

Re: Great Barrier Reef headed for ‘massive death’

#127
post #106
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory if you could mix the oceans faster (I know lol), you could begin dissolving the deposited calcium carbonate at the bottom and buffering the oceans with even more bicarbonate ions. Unfortunately this happens naturally on the time scale of centuries, which is super fast for geology but not great news for corals.

Maybe if we all collect our unused and expired baking soda...

Cocaine’s a hell of a drug...
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