Wasn't this done already? I thought it was called bitcoin.
Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
101–110 of 180 posts
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
Please note that an "active user" is an active address( i.e one that has made a bet on the platform) in the past day. This doesn't take into account users that made a bet in the past( most bets have long term horizons, >4 to 5 months) or users that have a current position but aren't betting anymore or users simply observing the markets( looking at a front end like predictions.global) Also note that active users is pr…
What's the money currently at stake?
According to predictions.global: $1,358,603.63
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#103The article says Augur's main advantages are 1) it's decentralised so anyone can create markets and 2) you don't have to trust a third party to distribute funds after a bet is over.
The only problem I could really see being solved by Augur is that maybe it can work around regulations that prohibit many forms of "bets". But the article also says that Augur is facing legal challenges already, and it will be determined in September whether they can continue.
Its decentralised, "illegal" nature reminds me of BitTorrent. Sure, there is money to be made. But the real change will come when companies akin to Netflix figure out how to do it centrally and legally.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#104The article says Augur's main advantages are 1) it's decentralised so anyone can create markets and 2) you don't have to trust a third party to distribute funds after a bet is over. The only problem I could really see being solved by Augur is that maybe it can work around regulations that prohibit many forms of "bets". But the article also says that Augur is facing legal challenges already, and it will be determined…
I don't think gambling is an area where you can figure out how to do it legally the way Netflix was able to offer digital streaming. The whole business is illegal in many places, or a state monopoly.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#105[deleted]
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
In direct democracy, you vote for what you want to happen. In a prediction market you vote for what you think will happen. The whole point is that a sufficiently large and diverse groupe of people is better at predicting the future using those system than an individual. Being able to correctly predicting the future can lead to better decisions.
Is there evidence of this working though, or is it the same concept as the 'wisdom of the crowds'
The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver talks about this a lot. From predicting politics to economics to sports to climate change, group predictions are almost universally better than individual expert predictions.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
but are they accurate in a predictive sense, or only in their reaction to events? If the latter, which I think is more likely, it seems kind of a useless way to try and answer questions...
The idea is that they create an incentive to discover all possible information that may effect the price of the stock in the future, and so the eventual market price ends up reflecting all that information. That in turn lets people use that price as a signal for how to allocate capital and make decisions in the future. It's not that they're totally accurate, it's that they're as accurate as it is possible to be . Why…
> discover all possible information
Plenty of market participants are not actually doing this. Day traders, high speed traders, even index funds come to mind. And even "real" investors are influenced by psychology that has little to do with an impartial analysis of all possible information. (It's not what you know, but what "everybody knows that everybody knows" [1])
[1] http://www.epsilontheory.com/the-fundamentals-are-sound/
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#108Doesn't this present huge challenges wrt whitewashing?
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
The stock markets are basically prediction markets. Over the short term they are wildly inaccurate and are determined mostly by fear, greed, and crowd psychology. But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.
> But averaged over the long term they are very accurate. That doesn't make sense. Sure investors can be accurate in the long run, but the market itself just reflects the price today.
It doesn't though, because people are often short term emotional thinkers. Hype/FUD driven decisions cause short term volatility.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#110Misplaced hype. “Today, Augur had 30 active users and 123 transactions in the last 24 hours. The market cap is roughly $269.2 million. That means that each active user is now worth roughly $9 million.” https://mobile.twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1027188396291235...
Sigh. Copying my comment from below: Please note that an "active user" is an active address( i.e one that has made a bet on the platform) in the past day. This doesn't take into account users that made a bet in the past( most bets have long term horizons, >4 to 5 months) or users that have a current position but aren't betting anymore or users simply observing the markets( looking at a front end like predictions.glob…
By any metric it's a ghost town. But I think that has a lot to do with poor UX, low liquidity, etc., all of which could change as it improves. For example, you currently have to download an app to interact with Augur. There's also very few contracts, each with very little liquidity.