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What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

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Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#131

Post by perl4ever »

Leary wrote: post #70
perl4ever wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's reasonable to note that it's a much smaller offense in this case than with Cuba, regardless of what one may think of the merits. There's a difference between holding a grudge over acts like expropriation and revolution and trying to enforce correct speaking and writing by everyone. The latter seems hypersensitive and quixotic. It would be silly if the US cut off travel to Canada because they recognized the exist…

Do you think in the Civil War, the US would've cut off travel to the UK if the UK recognized the Confederate States of America?

"In the Civil War" is one thing. 70 years later is another.

There's no way to tell what would have happened if a hypothetical rump CSA territory still existed circa 1934.

But we can look at Vietnam for comparison. The US normalized relations after 20 years, not >70.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#132

Post by h4b4n3r0 »

tepidandroid wrote: post #130
h4b4n3r0 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s there to qualify? You think they’ll worry as much about civilian casualties or use precision weapons?

It's funny because the situation you speak of with China is purely hypothetical while there are plenty (too many to count, really) modern day examples of the US military striking civilians all around the world. But hey, at least America has the decency to agonise over it, right? Very civilised indeed. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_from_U.S._...

5% collateral casualty rate, while regrettable, is very, very low, comparatively speaking. And yes, I was discussing this in context of a purely theoretical invasion of Taiwan. That's the whole point.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#133

Post by tepidandroid »

h4b4n3r0 wrote: post #132
tepidandroid wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny because the situation you speak of with China is purely hypothetical while there are plenty (too many to count, really) modern day examples of the US military striking civilians all around the world. But hey, at least America has the decency to agonise over it, right? Very civilised indeed. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_from_U.S._...

5% collateral casualty rate, while regrettable, is very, very low, comparatively speaking. And yes, I was discussing this in context of a purely theoretical invasion of Taiwan. That's the whole point.

Comparatively speaking to what? The 20% non-military fatality rate in the decade of bombing that preceded that particular year? Vietnam? Korea?

To make a hand-wavy statement such as "China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do" makes it sound as though you think the collective American morality is somehow superior to that of the Chinese? I'm curious how one could come to such a conclusion while taking into account both recent and less recent history.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#134

Post by idra »

jonathankoren wrote: post #129
Retric wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has nuclear weapons, so in terms of total war the direct outcome is not in question. The issue is Taiwan is capable of putting up enough of a fight to make it loud internationally and painful domestically. The population does not want to join a poorly run country with 1/4th it’s per capita GDP. It would be able to retaliate and hit major Chinease cities making it an extremely expensive war etc etc. And after th…

Honestly. I don’t know where you’re getting your information. Given your out of date information, and a cavalier toss about using nuclear weapons, I don’t think you’re nearly as well informed as you think you are. FYI: China has a no-first use policy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_dest...

Chinese policies (or laws, or contracts etc.) don’t mean anything

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#135

Post by sizzle »

tsuabing wrote: post #13
skh wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that Taiwan will eventually merge with the mainland. Perhaps via the two-systems one China route that Hong Kong did. The claims of mainland China on Taiwan are understandable and I don't fault them for their perspective on the issue. Is the United States really willing to go to war with China over this? I don't think so. Are Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines willing to go to war with Ch…

I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. The current Chinese government has never ruled over the island. Not to mention most Taiwanese currently support independence, especi…

In a lighter note, sea salt coffee from 85° degrees bakery and maple brick toast are delicious :)

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#136

Post by graeme »

sonnyblarney wrote: post #60
graeme wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not in a strong position, unfortunately. The rest of the world broadly agrees that China and Taiwan are the same country. You don't have representation in the UN, or formal recognition from most countries. Your biggest advantage was economic. But China's growth means you are now tiny compared to them, and you have a reduced ability to pay other countries for diplomatic recognition. Unlike the poster you repli…

"The rest of the world broadly agrees that China and Taiwan are the same country." No. The 'rest of the world' basically accepts that China and Taiwan are different countries, and would recognize Taiwan in a heartbeat if it were not for diplomatic issues.

Those "diplomatic issues" were the entire point of my post. And my argument is that they're going to get worse, not better, over time, as China's regional and global position strengthens.

I meant "broadly agrees" in the diplomatic sense. That's the main sense that matters for Taiwan. The US is the only country with any real measure if de facto support for Taiwan, and it is pulling back from Asia.

This article lays out the strategic logic in more detail: https://nationalinterest.org/article/say-goodbye-taiwan-9931

(The author, John Mearsheimer, is a leading international relations theorist. In 1994 he may a similar prediction when Ukraine gave up its nukes: he said they would eventually be strategically vulnerable to Russian aggression)

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#138

Post by [deleted] »

skh wrote: post #6
ericjang wrote: post #2

Hypothetically speaking, if one is opposed to some or all aspects of the "One China" doctrine, what can one do locally/globally to effect change? Or is the annexation of Taiwan a near-certainty via the forces of economics?

I believe that Taiwan will eventually merge with the mainland. Perhaps via the two-systems one China route that Hong Kong did. The claims of mainland China on Taiwan are understandable and I don't fault them for their perspective on the issue. Is the United States really willing to go to war with China over this? I don't think so. Are Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines willing to go to war with Ch…

[deleted]

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#139

Post by lurquer »

tepidandroid wrote: post #133
h4b4n3r0 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5% collateral casualty rate, while regrettable, is very, very low, comparatively speaking. And yes, I was discussing this in context of a purely theoretical invasion of Taiwan. That's the whole point.

Comparatively speaking to what? The 20% non-military fatality rate in the decade of bombing that preceded that particular year? Vietnam? Korea? To make a hand-wavy statement such as "China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do" makes it sound as though you think the collective American morality is somehow superior to that of the Chinese? I'm curious how one could come to such a conclusion while taking i…

I wonder if China would treat the Tawainese civilians as gently as it treats its own? I suppose Tibet, Tianemnen, forced abortions, political prisoners, and the rest are just "hand-wavy" issues. Actually I do recall watching that one guy wave his hands a bit as he was run over by a tank in Tianemenn... or maybe it was twitching... can't recall.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#140

Post by [deleted] »

tepidandroid wrote: post #82
h4b4n3r0 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the past 60 years of US Military action have made abundantly clear, even for the best military on the planet by quite a margin no war is “easy” to win. Now, granted, China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do, but even then it’s not “easy”, especially if you plan to take permanent control of the territory afterwards. For that to happen, the overwhelming majority of the country has to _want_ such con…

> Now, granted, China won’t agonize about collateral damage the way we do Please qualify this statement.

[deleted]
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