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What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

reuters.com

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Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#111

Post by coldtea »

neya wrote: post #22
coldtea wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. Doesn't this answer your own question? 50 years are nothing in historical terms.

By that logic, you could say the same for any country that has gotten its independence recently (say, Singapore)..

That logic applies in context though, not as a blind rule.

So, if those places had historical and cultural ties with other nations that go way back (like Chinese and Taiwanese people have), then yes, a recent split might not mean much for the legitimacy of a new country.

If those places were merely occupied for centuries/millennia and "gotten their independence" then no.

Heck, colonial powers designed and build states based on all kind of splits in existing peoples to "divide and conquer" them. Statehood comes and go, actual historical and national cultural ties are what's long lasting.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#112

Post by coldtea »

knuththetruth wrote: post #26
coldtea wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. Doesn't this answer your own question? 50 years are nothing in historical terms.

The British tried a similar narrative with the War of 1812, and we in America are still alive and kicking. I hope the same for Taiwan and their independence.

Only the British and Americans weren't the same people (from a nationality perspective). Americans were merely British subjects -- from a hodge-podge of nationalities.

A split into two countries South / North post Civil War would be a better example.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#113

Post by imbokodo »

paulie_a wrote: post #96
imbokodo wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cuba pointed missiles at the US because the US was openly gearing up for one of its many invasions of Cuba, shortly after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion. The Soviets put nukes there because the US put nuclear missiles into Turkey. The US government has declared they want to destroy the US. It has been the US interfering in Iran, not vice versa. The US banned Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling from leaving the US, only…

You don't need a license to travel Amtrak. In many cases you don't even need a ticket when boarding the train. I routinely buy mine after it has left the station.

You might want to send a note to Amtrak's web site, as they say their policy is otherwise https://www.amtrak.com/passenger-identification

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#114

Post by skh »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #98
skh wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is there are different perspectives that have some merit to them. Both sides have compelling points. But one thing is clear, the PRC have always considered Taiwan part of the China and currently they will not countenance a different view on the matter. Will the U.S. be vigilant enough for long enough so that Taiwan remains independent. Personally I’m skeptical that this is so.

Always seems quite a stretch. China didn't first invade Taiwan until 1700 or thereabouts. They've been outside China for the last 120 years or so. China even formally ceded the territory to Japan in 1896 after the first China-Japan war. Of course what should matter is what the people of Taiwan want. Will the West provide enough response if it were needed? Sadly I suspect not.

The PRC is younger than the ROC. The PRC, the government, have always considered Taiwan part of China. It’s in their constitution I believe.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#115

Post by jonathankoren »

Retric wrote: post #10
skh wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that Taiwan will eventually merge with the mainland. Perhaps via the two-systems one China route that Hong Kong did. The claims of mainland China on Taiwan are understandable and I don't fault them for their perspective on the issue. Is the United States really willing to go to war with China over this? I don't think so. Are Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines willing to go to war with Ch…

Taiwan has a relatively strong military and while China would easily win any war, it would be crazy to fight it’s military.

It had a military advantage. It doesn’t anymore.[0] Taiwan has not been sold modern equipment, while China has increased military spending and operational capability.

Being an island, Taiwan always had to rely on holding off an invading force for as long as possible. This historically meant until the US Navy could reinforce its defenses. Now with China’s anti access area denial strategy, this is becoming a less certain strategy.[1]

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/world/asia/china-taiwan-m...

[1] https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/chinas-a2ad-challenge-in-the...

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#116

Post by gerdesj »

gerdesj wrote: post #109
Waterluvian wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fair. Maybe like.. cold war onwards.

I'm a Brit. In the past Britain might be said to have imposed itself a little bit across the planet. I'm not sure that the world is ready yet for either your or my country's style of nation scale parenthood. That said: we can persuade around 2 billion people to watch a Californian princess become a Duchess and convince those watchers and the rest of the world that the opposite happened! The US and its mythology can b…

... I was a bit unfair on assuming a few things. Meghan Markle became the Duchess of Sussex on marring Prince Harry. Strictly speaking she is not a Princess but I defy anyone to enforce that fact ...

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#117

Post by jonathankoren »

Naga wrote: post #66
knuththetruth wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The British tried a similar narrative with the War of 1812, and we in America are still alive and kicking. I hope the same for Taiwan and their independence.

If you remember, the United States declared war on Britain, not the other way around. Britain also arguably won the war since the result was status quo ante bellum, which is all that Britain wanted since they were at war with France at the same time for over a decade.

Are you Canadian?

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#118

Post by canhascodez »

graeme wrote: post #47
canhascodez wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what sense are Taiwan and China the same country? China has acted as a bully to deny the independent status of Taiwan, but I have no idea why you think that they don't have the right to self-determination.

In the "do other countries recognize Taiwan as a country" sense. Generally speaking, the answer is that they don't. That means Taiwan's independence is only de facto, not de jure, and that is a very bad thing for Taiwan's prospects. Particularly in a world where China now has much more economic power than Taiwan. I'm not talking about "right". Like I said, I think Taiwan should be independent. But, I'm not optimistic…

I mean, China may want that, and they may eventually achieve it, but I think it will require something not far short of complete eradication of the Taiwanese to do that, which to me is probably the determining factor in what I consider "independent". As to de jure, quod jure? I don't think the historical record is in dispute over the ownership of Formosa/Taiwan. It's not that might makes right, it's that might can table the discussion, or rather slab it, and I'm sure that if China does bring those sorts of arguments to the table, their rights will be recognized by other nations, the same as was done for Tibet. But until that actually happens I think that it's only consistent to consider Taiwan an independent state.

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#119

Post by joejerryronnie »

tsuabing wrote: post #71
graeme wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not in a strong position, unfortunately. The rest of the world broadly agrees that China and Taiwan are the same country. You don't have representation in the UN, or formal recognition from most countries. Your biggest advantage was economic. But China's growth means you are now tiny compared to them, and you have a reduced ability to pay other countries for diplomatic recognition. Unlike the poster you repli…

Taiwan may be small economically, but we are still important strategically to the western world's alliance against China. The island act as a unsinkable carrier. You have your facts wrong. Chinese GDP is fake and growth is declining every year. I have many Taiwanese manufacturer friends that sees the declining Chinese sales, exploding debts, and rising wages, and have moved most of their factories out of China. Meanw…

How about that second paragraph. Seems to echo the reports about weakness in China's big tech companies and speculation over their artificially propped up economy (i.e. massive, debt-fueled, unnecessary government infrastructure projects)

Re: What happens when a Pacific island upsets China

#120

Post by [deleted] »

coldtea wrote: post #16
tsuabing wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. The current Chinese government has never ruled over the island. Not to mention most Taiwanese currently support independence, especi…

> I am a Taiwanese millienial and I am deeply offended by this comment. Why would you say that the claim is understandable? ? Taiwan has been an independent democratic country with its own military, economy, culture, government, rules of law, and international relations for over 50 years. Doesn't this answer your own question? 50 years are nothing in historical terms.

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