Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#341

Post by Obi_Juan_Kenobi » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 6:20 PM UTC

dingaling wrote: post #202

_bxg1 wrote: post #7

This was about what I'd gathered. He's been reckless and made some huge errors in judgement over the past year, but despite it all I hope he succeeds. I don't think he's a hero or a saint like some people do, but his endeavors are having a very real and tangible positive effect on civilization. Most chiefly, as bad as the climate change situation looks right now, it would be so much worse without the insane amount of…

I'd argue that it was mass-production hybrids in the late 90s that moved us towards the renewables-based future. People could buy them without fear of running out of charge, yet they gamified energy-effiency for drivers who had never really considered that beyond the price of petrol at the pump. Without hybrids having shouldered the door open, I doubt that pure EVs would have fared much better than in previous decade…

Somewhat OT, but I wouldn't say hybrids came in the late 90s, more like the mid 2000s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicles_in_th...

There's a nice inflection point around 2003-2004 where they really became mass-market.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#342

Post by cepth » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 6:36 PM UTC

chadmeister wrote: post #333

cepth wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a bunch of reasons, but the basic background is this. -Vision 2030, which first mentioned the IPO, was announced back in 2016 -Oil prices sit around $66/barrel today. This represents a recovery from the low-point of ~$40/barrel. However, Aramco’s valuation is obviously tied to the price of oil, and the Saudis want to wait (hope?) for higher oil prices -Even at today’s depressed oil prices, the Saudis have s…

I think this IPO could happen sooner than you think. The Saudis seem to have quite a bit of influence on the current US presidential administration and I wouldn't be surprised if the Saudis played a role in the decision to sanction Venezuela, who was at the time was the #1 oil exporter in the world, and the decision to sanction Iran, another huge oil exporter. They've recently coordinated oil supply cuts through OPEC…

Nothing is impossible, so sure it's not impossible I'm wrong, and Aramco goes public soon.

Given that they've already signaled that it won't happen this year, you do wonder why 2 years on there's no meaningful progress. They've announced the underwriting banks, but there's been no roadshow, no news of meetings with institutional investors. I still think it's quite unlikely you could float a $100 billion IPO today.

IPO aside, I think several of your claims about geopolitics and oil in general are at the very least heavily debatable, and in some cases just factually incorrect.

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> The Saudis seem to have quite a bit of influence on the current US presidential administration and I wouldn't be surprised if the Saudis played a role in the decision to sanction Venezuela

The stated reason for the sanctions was because the US and its allies alleges that Venezuela had sham elections. The EU is doing the same: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/05/eu-prepares-hit-venez....

In 2014, H.R. 4587 passed the House. The bill's rationale was to sanction Venezuelan officials who were alleged to have retaliated against opposition voters and politicians.

The bottom line is that US-Venezuelan relations have been fraught since the days of Chavez.

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> ...and the decision to sanction Iran, another huge oil exporter

Maybe? Trump ran quite openly on punishing Iran and tearing up the nuclear deal. I'm not sure if you can attribute this to Saudi influence given he and his family have business ties and taken meetings with everyone from the UAE to Bahrain to Qatar.

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> They've recently coordinated oil supply cuts through OPEC and also isolated Quatar, another large oil exporter.

Qatar exports ~1.25 million barrels a day. The Saudi-Qatari standoff has little to do with oil. Qatar sits on one of the world's largest natural gas fields: https://www.vox.com/world/2017/7/2/15882682/saudi-arabia-qat.... Saudi Arabia and Qatar are jockeying for political influence in the Middle East, over everything from the war in Yemen to Qatar's friendliness with Iran. This is analogous to how the war in Yemen was for the longest time a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and its allies vs Iran.

Scroll down to the "Price and Production" section of this Bloomberg visualization: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opec-production-targets/. Notice how OPEC cut production sharply in late 2016. Is there any trend between OPEC output and overall oil prices?

What's changed? The US is now the largest oil exporter in the world: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-will-export-oil-most-in-w.... It's simply the case that OPEC doesn't hold the same sway that is used to. Look at the chart labeled "Shares of primary energy" here: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/stat.... Natural gas is trending upwards, while oil is flat in recent years, and down quite significantly compared to past decades.

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One nit-picky thing, Mohammed bin Salman goes by MBS. I've yet to hear anyone call him MS.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#343

Post by jszymborski » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 6:40 PM UTC

_bxg1 wrote: post #7

This was about what I'd gathered. He's been reckless and made some huge errors in judgement over the past year, but despite it all I hope he succeeds. I don't think he's a hero or a saint like some people do, but his endeavors are having a very real and tangible positive effect on civilization. Most chiefly, as bad as the climate change situation looks right now, it would be so much worse without the insane amount of…

Before we go ahead and give Tesla the moral high-ground here, let's not forget that Teslas are black boxes that pose immense privacy concerns.

Tesla surely created a hype about electric vehicles that has prompted mainstream car manufacturers like Volkswagen to step up their electric vehicle game, which is a net positive, but they also started the trend of including data-reporting black boxes, and they're one of the worst offenders in my view.

https://electrek.co/2017/06/14/tesla-autopilot-data-floodgat...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/02/19/the-big-...

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#344

Post by timr » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 6:43 PM UTC

akmiller wrote: post #336

mattmaroon wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would consider data to be an argument in favor of the big three. Tesla only sells about 100000 cars a year. Ford's top-selling model, the F-series, is almost eight times that. I'm assuming you mean some data that Tesla is currently collecting that Ford cannot, but it would be a matter of not much money for them to do so. They can add whatever sensors they need in the next year's F150 and within a few months have mo…

True, but it is not only the data. Even if it was why aren't the big 3 doing this already? Tesla is a technology company more-so than a car company. They employ the engineers focusing on machine learning and gathering the right data to support that. This would be a brand new area for Ford, Chevy, etc... I'm guessing. Not that they couldn't ramp up, but I don't think it would be as easy as you seem to suggest. Walmart…

"True, but it is not only the data. Even if it was why aren't the big 3 doing this already? Tesla is a technology company more-so than a car company. They employ the engineers focusing on machine learning and gathering the right data to support that. This would be a brand new area for Ford, Chevy, etc... I'm guessing. Not that they couldn't ramp up, but I don't think it would be as easy as you seem to suggest."

They are. GM is investing billions into self-driving cars and electric vehicles. Every other major car manufacturer has similar initiatives.

If you're wondering why they don't gather teh big datas like Tesla, perhaps it's worth considering that the benefit of this is more of an internet meme than an actual, useful idea. Pretty much everyone serious in the field is using LIDAR, not trying to make up for it with petabytes of bad bumper video.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#345

Post by ProfessorLayton » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 6:50 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #314

propter_hoc wrote: post #8

The article notes allegations that the Board is concerned that Mr. Musk has been taking Ambien as a sleeping aid, but instead of sleeping, has been posting bizarre tirades on Twitter. I actually have a number of American* friends who take Ambien frequently with the intent that it be a sleeping aid. However, they all commonly do exactly what Mr. Musk may be doing: failing to sleep after taking their Ambien, and instea…

I use it for jetlag. It's pretty good really. I guess people put up with the risk of odd side effects as it normally works ok.

Just out of curiosity, why would one take a prescription sleeping pill for jet lag when there's over the counter ones for occasional use?

I've taken OTC sleeping pills to recover from jet lag with great success.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#346

Post by djanogo » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 6:52 PM UTC

tomhoward wrote: post #37

But, he added, “if you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now.” I think this hits at the crux of the issue around the performance/behaviour of Musk and other leaders of hugely ambitious companies. And I think it highlights the importance of thinking about what kinds of people it will take to lead the…

"If you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now"

Being a leader he has to split his job and find competent people who specialize in that field to do that job. EM seems to have problem trusting or delegating parts of job that he currently does.

I don't follow his twitter that much, does he ever praise his VP's and let them have limelight with his massive followers?, all the major twitter news seems to be about "him" doing something. I know it's his personal twitter, but he uses it to represent Tesla.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#347

Post by cellis » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 6:57 PM UTC

3pt14159 wrote: post #213

mattmaroon wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has come really close on several occasions to buying TSLA puts (the options version of shorting) I think I can answer: the shorts aren't haters. The shorts don't want Tesla to fail. The shorts don't even think Tesla will fail. The shorts just think the market cap of Tesla is insane. It's higher than much larger, profitable automakers who can provably make and sell cars at scale. For Tesla to be worth i…

I've said similar things about Amazon, but I never had the balls to bet against Bezos and I'm glad I didn't. Even at 10x the earnings Amazon would still be a tenuous bet at its current market cap. I know the whole "ecommerce is a bear" and all that, but let's be real here; it isn't that much of a bear and Amazon is selling cheap Chinese shit. They're going to go the way that Ebay did. With AI and cheap energy logisti…

I think the problem is you’re severely underestimating the role of Amazon as a market maker / provider of liquidity. By buying in bulk, they underwrite the risk of not having enough direct-to-consumer customers and allow the manufacturer to produce more. Kind of like a bank, or a factor, only tremendously more influential in the process.

The manufacturer cannot easily sell to end users, as it requires fine tuned delivery platforms and most of all, discoverability. SEO alone is not enough for a manufacturer to get noticed, so Amazon will benefit from being the de facto “search” for products. Anecdotally I and most of my friends and family already do this. It’s rare that I have intention to purchase and google it.

As for Tesla, yeah I think it’s time to bet against him. There were many many “great men” like Musk in the 80’s and 90’s that made 1 too many misssteps and ruined their companies. Elon is on a razor’s edge.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#348

Post by djanogo » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 7:07 PM UTC

cepth wrote: post #309

pas wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Aramco IPO going nowhere fast Why? Could you elaborate on this please?

There are a bunch of reasons, but the basic background is this. -Vision 2030, which first mentioned the IPO, was announced back in 2016 -Oil prices sit around $66/barrel today. This represents a recovery from the low-point of ~$40/barrel. However, Aramco’s valuation is obviously tied to the price of oil, and the Saudis want to wait (hope?) for higher oil prices -Even at today’s depressed oil prices, the Saudis have s…

I think the 5% sale is more like pre-selling their oil, they will do it at it's highest value. They probably have 50/100 year plan to slowly sell rest of the 95% and move all that risk out of their country.

At the end it will be investors in the rest of the world holding the bag instead of Saudi people. Saudis will buy stake in Tesla/FB and emerging technologies with all that Aramco $$.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#349

Post by helper » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 7:11 PM UTC

akmiller wrote: post #251

mattmaroon wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has come really close on several occasions to buying TSLA puts (the options version of shorting) I think I can answer: the shorts aren't haters. The shorts don't want Tesla to fail. The shorts don't even think Tesla will fail. The shorts just think the market cap of Tesla is insane. It's higher than much larger, profitable automakers who can provably make and sell cars at scale. For Tesla to be worth i…

Perhaps their initial reason in shorting the stock was not inherently evil. But at this point they risk losing billions of dollars so their only incentive is to ensure the company fails. I actually don't find their share price to be out of control at all. They have assets other companies would only dream of at this point. The data alone on miles driven is extremely valuable in the race to self driving cars. Their sup…

Short sellers don't need the company to fail to make money. I would guess that most tesla short sellers don't think that tesla is going to fail.

Short sellers thesis is that the company is overvalued and that the market will come to see this and correct itself.

If they are wrong they will lose money. If they are right they will make money. There's no reason to ascribe to them malice.

Most CEOs ignore short sellers and get on with their job of running their company.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#350

Post by pasabagi » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 7:11 PM UTC

rthomas6 wrote: post #254

tomhoward wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with that: it's been my own experience of enduring severe burnout and coming out the other side in much better shape. That's what underpins my point of view on this: if we were better at supporting talented-but-flawed people through personal transformation instead treating them with hatred and ridicule every time they misstep, we could have more great leaders and more great companies.

It's bizarre and absurd to me that the public opinion even has a role in supporting corporate leaders, let alone a large one. Why should it influence Tesla and SpaceX whether or not the public supports him, apart from investing and buying the products? What matters is tangible results, not personal opinions of the masses.

I think the thing is, we think of CEO as a managerial position, but a lot of the time, it's actually a marketing position. It's about defining the corporate brand, both to other businesses, to customers, and to investors. That's why you often get CEOs who are pretty flamboyant.