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Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

bloomberg.com

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Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#81

Post by doombolt »

consumer451 wrote: post #75
duxup wrote: post #38

>In the 1950s, the Soviet economy grew faster than that of any other major country barring Japan. I'd like to read more about what was happening then, was it largely military investment?

The USSR also had many satellite nations, like the Eastern European block. Moscow was known to drain those countries' resources, with little local investment in return outside of military bases. I only have personal anecdotes to back that up having grown up in one of those satellite countries.

Actually, all of those states had higher standards of living than core USSR and also access to this huge Soviet market. Didn't do much good since communism is so bad, but still.

After the collapse of the Bloc most of those countries lost their industrial capacity, some have not yet recovered, some only recovered on outsource.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#82

Post by nopinsight »

China is located among countries with large populations. Border disputes and historical warfares with neighbors are among its handicaps.

Looking at the world as a grand chess board, the Belt and Road Initiative is a move which China turns this disadvantage into an edge. By promoting trades with neighbors, it gains geopolitical influence, potential integration into the local economies, and friendships with the political classes.

To match this, the US needs to further strengthen its ties with the countries in question. Several of which are projected to become some of the largest economies in the world by 2050 [1]. Regardless of the extent that the projection comes true, the regions from East Asia to South Asia, where about half of the world's population live in, clearly have great long-term strategic importance.

[1] https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.h...

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#83

Post by greglindahl »

Barrin92 wrote: post #80
slimed wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sri Lanka is off the coast of India. Your lack of attention to detail does not give one confidence in your argument.

Sorry did you respond to the wrong person? The harbour story that recently made headlines concerned the port in Djibouti, which to my knowledge is located in East Africa. I did not mention Sri Lanka.

As mentioned in the fine article:

> Failed projects like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port may indeed be a way for China to quietly extend its strategic power around the world.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#84

Post by taobility »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #61
sct202 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, people keep saying China is a house of cards, but they're spending their money on things you can see and use. The train I take to work is 40 years old, and the tracks are over a 100. I'm envious of all the new things they're building with all their 'fake' growth.

> Yeah, people keep saying China is a house of cards No they don't, that is completely a red herring. > I'm envious of all the new things they're building with all their 'fake' growth. We could have HSR also if we were willing to pay for it...if we thought it made sense to our economic growth. And the Chinese have taken out a lot of debt to pay for it, it wasn't free, and the only profitable line ATM is the one betwe…

HSR don't need to be profit individually, that's why it's funded by the government. HSR will stimulate the economy which it connected. So in a big picture, it brings a huge positive impact for the economy, just like the highway.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#85

Post by zeusk »

nopinsight wrote: post #82

China is located among countries with large populations. Border disputes and historical warfares with neighbors are among its handicaps. Looking at the world as a grand chess board, the Belt and Road Initiative is a move which China turns this disadvantage into an edge. By promoting trades with neighbors, it gains geopolitical influence, potential integration into the local economies, and friendships with the politic…

It isn't as much about sincere trade as much it is about making those countries dependent on China.

Just take a look at the projects completed so far, every single time they brought in their own people and companies to build oversized unnecessary infrastructure that remains mostly unused.

When countries default on those loans, things aren't quite bright.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#86

Post by Barrin92 »

greglindahl wrote: post #83
Barrin92 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry did you respond to the wrong person? The harbour story that recently made headlines concerned the port in Djibouti, which to my knowledge is located in East Africa. I did not mention Sri Lanka.

As mentioned in the fine article: > Failed projects like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port may indeed be a way for China to quietly extend its strategic power around the world.

oh well sorry, did not catch that!

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#87

Post by nopinsight »

zeusk wrote: post #85
nopinsight wrote: post #82

China is located among countries with large populations. Border disputes and historical warfares with neighbors are among its handicaps. Looking at the world as a grand chess board, the Belt and Road Initiative is a move which China turns this disadvantage into an edge. By promoting trades with neighbors, it gains geopolitical influence, potential integration into the local economies, and friendships with the politic…

It isn't as much about sincere trade as much it is about making those countries dependent on China. Just take a look at the projects completed so far, every single time they brought in their own people and companies to build oversized unnecessary infrastructure that remains mostly unused. When countries default on those loans, things aren't quite bright.

I do not condone all of their tactics, some of which look questionable. I only tried to analyze the thinking behind their plans and strategy from a detached point of view. Their overall strategy appears quite sound.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#88

Post by seanmcdirmid »

justicezyx wrote: post #74
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yeah, people keep saying China is a house of cards No they don't, that is completely a red herring. > I'm envious of all the new things they're building with all their 'fake' growth. We could have HSR also if we were willing to pay for it...if we thought it made sense to our economic growth. And the Chinese have taken out a lot of debt to pay for it, it wasn't free, and the only profitable line ATM is the one betwe…

The profitable model does not always work everywhere. For these high speed railroad, I see no reason they should be profitable as a whole. I mean, better is better. Let's not pretend that USA can still build the infrastructure as it needs, better than China. On the other hand, China's infrastructure project are funded by cheap labors. That's maybe more relevant than financial models. Also they have little resistance…

> For these high speed railroad, I see no reason they should be profitable as a whole.

They were paid for by investors and bank loans. The governments direct contribution is not that large. If HSR isn't going to pay off, those investors are losing their shirts.

> Let's not pretend that USA can still build the infrastructure as it needs, better than China.

The USA takes advantage of cheaper goods from other countries. It can totally survive without that, but we like more stuff.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#89

Post by seanmcdirmid »

taobility wrote: post #84
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yeah, people keep saying China is a house of cards No they don't, that is completely a red herring. > I'm envious of all the new things they're building with all their 'fake' growth. We could have HSR also if we were willing to pay for it...if we thought it made sense to our economic growth. And the Chinese have taken out a lot of debt to pay for it, it wasn't free, and the only profitable line ATM is the one betwe…

HSR don't need to be profit individually, that's why it's funded by the government. HSR will stimulate the economy which it connected. So in a big picture, it brings a huge positive impact for the economy, just like the highway.

HSR wasn't funded by the government however, at least not completely. Well, this is where it gets complicated:

China Railway is a SOE, so it is technically the government. It took out a lot of debt to do HSR, and technically that isn't considered public debt and is rather listed as corporate debt (if SOE debt was considered public debt, China's public debt would obviously be much higher than the USA). Anyways, see https://www.ft.com/content/ca28f58a-955d-11e8-b747-fb1e803ee... for a better read.

Highways in China are mostly financed in similar ways actually, which is why all of the newer ones have pretty high tolls.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#90

Post by mrep »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #13
baybal2 wrote: post #5

The key quote: >"It’s worth considering all this misdirected spending in the context of the Soviet Union’s decline. Around the middle decades of the 20th century, Moscow presided over a China-style economic miracle that caused many in the West to fear they would be overtaken."

The key question may be to what degree China's economy resembles Russia's. If China's is some free-market lipstick on a planned-economy pig, they are likely to suffer Russia's fate. To the extent that the free-market reforms are real, they have a better chance of escaping it. My personal opinion is that China's free market is real, but the state intervention is still fairly heavy for a "free market economy". What doe…

To me, the free market is best represented through market competition. Can anyone comment on how competitive the chinese markets actually are because I have heard that it is still very government/single company dominate focused.
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