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Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

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Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#31

Post by lainga »

Barrin92 wrote: post #28

I don't see any justification for the Soviet analogy other than wanting to conjure up the image of the impending collapse of China. This sounds like the infrastructure version of the 'financial bubble' prediction that crops up every other year. If one wanted to pick a positive story there would be the example of the American progressive era, the creation of the interstate system, the railway system during the 19th ce…

From 3rd paragraph TFA, and unlike 1910-1950s USA,

Like the Soviet Union in the 1970s, China is coming to the end of a long labor-force boom, and hoping that an orgy of investment will keep the old magic going while stabilizing its fraying frontiers.

Cornelius Vanderbilt wasn't trying to overcome a graying America or shore up the Monroe Doctrine by building railroads in Latin America and Africa. If anything, I fail to see any justification for your comparisons between China and the progressive-era US.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#32

Post by rgbrenner »

taobility wrote: post #26
rgbrenner wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was with you on the first sentence.. but where did you get 7.8%? We only spend 3.5%. [Edit: World bank puts it at 3.1: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locat... ] And according to the military, most of this higher than average spending is due to the military being voluntary, and needing to compete on wages in one of the highest earning countries in the world. Whether you agree with the militar…

according this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War , the direct spending of DoD on Iraq war is about $757.8 billion, do you think most of that spending on the labor?

I think to look at any particular war and ask that question leads to an inaccurate answer... since there are years of prep work, training, research, etc that the military conducts, then in a short period of time they expend equipment, munitions, etc during a war.

But consider, the cost of labor effects everything the military does... Everyone in the entire chain commands a higher wage than they would in China/Russia, whether they hold a gun or not... researchers, assembly line workers, doctors, etc... pushing up the costs of everything the military buys.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#33

Post by rfinney »

logicx24 wrote: post #20
kiliantics wrote: post #7

Were the West Indies productive before the ports and sugar plantations? Was India productive before its railways were built? Something smells of anti-China propaganda in this highly speculative piece.

India had the world's largest GDP under the Mughals and had continued positive growth, but by the end of the British Raj, was facing stagnant population growth and actually reduced agricultural productivity. So contrary to everything you're saying, India was not only productive before the British, it was actually worsened by Britain's exploitation.

There are other views on the economics of India under British rule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India_under_the_Bri...

example: * British increased the area of irrigated land by a factor of eight, contrasting with 5% under the Mughals.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#34

Post by nopinsight »

"The bulk of major Belt and Road projects are in Malaysia, South Asia and Indochina" -- subheading of the 2nd chart

Malaysia and Indonesia control the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes which doubled in traffic over the past decade [1]. The strait connects manufacturers in China to fast-growing large population centers in South Asia, including India, Pakistan and Bangladesh with over 1.5 billion people in total.

Most of the projects facilitate trades between South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China. About half of the world's population live in these regions [2].

The projects to connect China to Russia and Europe serve two major purposes:

1) Energy security: Over 40% of the oil China imports comes from the Middle East [3], where it does not have much influence. Even imports from elsewhere are largely shipped over the seas which China does not control.

2) Geopolitical influence through trade and investment

[1] http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/asia/exclusive-malacca...

Also: https://www.shipmap.org/

[2] More People Live Inside This Circle Than Outside Of It https://brilliantmaps.com/population-circle/

[3] http://www.worldstopexports.com/top-15-crude-oil-suppliers-t...

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#35

Post by sonnyblarney »

Barrin92 wrote: post #28

I don't see any justification for the Soviet analogy other than wanting to conjure up the image of the impending collapse of China. This sounds like the infrastructure version of the 'financial bubble' prediction that crops up every other year. If one wanted to pick a positive story there would be the example of the American progressive era, the creation of the interstate system, the railway system during the 19th ce…

The comparison to Soviet Union is problematic but definitely more relevant than US investment scenarios that you highlighted.

The US scenario you highlighted would be more comparable to Chinese investment in the last 25 years, no?

The clear difference between Soviet Union and China is that China has a growing and robust economy, with a firm grip on the situation whereas the Soviet Union was aching away on so many lies.

Chinese fabricated financials can be papered over with any kind of magic the state wants to apply to it - so long as the economy continues to move forward the numbers will say anything they want them to say.

The articles comparison may be overblown but it's not without reason.

I believe that the China boom has mostly been had, and we're going to see lower growth from here on in; that said, it'll be consistent and positive and they aren't going to disappear as a superpower.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#36

Post by dannyobrien »

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #11
andrew_ wrote: post #2

Anyone else learn a new meaning to the word "founder"? Thought it was a typo for "flounder" only to learn that it can also mean "to give way, collapse." Stay weird, English.

I didn't know this either. Amusing. Many founders do founder. verb (used without object) (of a ship, boat, etc.) to fill with water and sink. to fall or sink down, as buildings, ground, etc.: Built on a former lake bed, the building has foundered nearly ten feet. to become wrecked; fail utterly: The project foundered because public support was lacking. to stumble, break down, or go lame, as a horse: to become ill fro…

See also the double meaning of “career”.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#37

Post by monocasa »

forapurpose wrote: post #21
monocasa wrote: post #4

Come on, building and rebuilding other country's economies is a boon to the local economy, particularly when that other country is footing the bill. That's literally why the US was on top starting at the end of WWII. Not everything the Soviets were doing in the 70s is the reason for their downfall.

> building and rebuilding other country's economies is a boon to the local economy, particularly when that other country is footing the bill. That's literally why the US was on top starting at the end of WWII. I'm sure it helped, but the U.S. was already by far the dominant power before that economic activity. At the end of WWII, the U.S. produced half of the world's GDP, a staggering number. It was the only advanced…

> It says a lot, IMHO, that the U.S. didn't pursue a global empire at that point.

I mean, there's a lot of practical reasons for post colonialism that don't have to do with any altruism on the part of the United States.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#39

Post by duxup »

Barrin92 wrote: post #28

I don't see any justification for the Soviet analogy other than wanting to conjure up the image of the impending collapse of China. This sounds like the infrastructure version of the 'financial bubble' prediction that crops up every other year. If one wanted to pick a positive story there would be the example of the American progressive era, the creation of the interstate system, the railway system during the 19th ce…

I think the main point was that the Chinese investment seems to at times fly in the face of where trade really is / is going.

The us interstate system was where there was trade already and not many alternate routes / better systems.

China's strategic concers are obvious and make sense...and yet if push came to shove and they were cut off from the sea, are they really trading via rail with Europe or others in that scenario anyway? / is incurring the costs of whole backup systems making sense?

Personally I don't have a clue how any of this plays out, just speaking to what the article is indicating.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#40

Post by Fjolsvith »

lwf wrote: post #30
spacehome wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really hard to get a precise number of how much money we spend on military. The budget for the military is snuck into other line items and obscures the true cost. For instance the VA is not included, even though we only need the VA due to having veterans. And the costs for nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants are included in the Department of Energy's budget.

The VA is a weird case — if we had comprehensive medical coverage for all Americans, the because-of-military costs would only be those incurred due to care for wounded veterans. I believe that's a minority of the VA's expenditures, but sometimes it is hard to separate. For example, my grandfather receives a hearing aid from the VA — is that because of too much time spent around jet planes, or just due to age?

He probably receives a hearing aid from the VA because he was in the military, irregardless of how he lost his hearing.
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