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USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

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Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#121

Honest question: Why such vitriol against "climate deniers?" The term "climate denier" is loading with negative connotation just on it's face, and it's rarely used in isolation in an otherwise respectful way. There will always be people that disagree with you about something. Some are honest, some are not. Why be an asshole and treat people poorly and disrespectfully? That makes you as bad or worse than them IMHO. Ev…

[flagged]

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#122
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate sceptic is the established term.

It is not as clear cut as that at all. Wikipedia has a page on Denial.. What is "established" is part of the debate too and obviously it is in some deniers interest to instead label themself sceptic. Apparently there has been a debate about this: https://ncse.com/library-resource/why-is-it-called-denial https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial

Very great answer in those links, particularly the NCSE one. I'm not certain I agree with their conclusion, but the explanation makes sense and really answers a lot of my questions. Thank you!

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#123
post #6

What part do climate change deniers deny? Is it that the mean global temperature is going up, or the idea that it is going up because of human activities? I thought it was the latter.

There's a large portion of them, including Trump, that have no interest in the science at all, to them it's just another of many baseless conspiracy theories they believe.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#124

Honest question: Why such vitriol against "climate deniers?" The term "climate denier" is loading with negative connotation just on it's face, and it's rarely used in isolation in an otherwise respectful way. There will always be people that disagree with you about something. Some are honest, some are not. Why be an asshole and treat people poorly and disrespectfully? That makes you as bad or worse than them IMHO. Ev…

Since you do not like the term "climate deniers", what's your proposal for an appropriate and respectful term or definition to aggregate the people that believe that climate change is not happening?

Nobody on the mainstream sides of the climate debate are claiming the climate isn’t changing. We are claiming that human causes have an effect less significant than the alarmist side claims.

Basically, if we all stop running our air conditioner, it isn’t going to have any significant effect on long term global temperatures. Basically we object to the idea that lowering standards of living is a meaningful cure for rising temperatures. Humans absolutely cause pollution, nobody “denies” that and most of us care deeply about actual pollution. But once CO2 started being considered some kind of pollutant, the environmental movement essentially jumped the shark in my view. CO2 is just as much a pollutant as oxygen but it is being treated by politicians as if it were benzene.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#125

> We can completely ignore the fact that over the years the average location of all the contributing stations has moved slightly northward to colder territory[.] Woah, that's not something I'd considered. Are weather stations that contribute to NOAA operated by the volunteer public, kind of like Weather Underground? Either way, that's pretty interesting that there's a distinct northward migration in at least one "dem…

The population has been migrating south. Why are the stations migrating north? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_center_of_the_United_Stat...

Note: this is only my guess, but it seems quite plausible that inhabited areas have been well-sampled for a long time, but some combination of

1) automated stations and satellite communication making it much easier/cheaper to sample remote locations

2) use of whole-globe numerical weather models which require complete initial conditions, even for regions where nobody much cares about the output

3) increased interest in climate research

would lead to a greatly increased number of Alaskan stations operated by NOAA (and of course corresponding moves by other national agencies)

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#126
post #118
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you actually understood it. Its point is that the temperature really is rising, and you have to resort to tricks to show that it’s not.

I think my comment has been badly misinterpreted given the down voting. I’ve reread my post and I’m not sure why it has been so misinterpreted. Clearly I failed to convey my intent. Obviously the blog post is about how one can construct a misleading graph by cherry picking data. The blog shows how one can cleverly display data to reinforce a prior belief. In this case the prior belief is that temperature is not risin…

I think you must have forgotten a “not” or otherwise made a typo that reversed the meaning of your comment.

“Recently, several times I’ve run into people tell me that temps in the U.S. are rising and I’ve wondered why they make such a claim.”

As written, your comment sounds like you don’t understand why someone would say temperatures are rising, and ascribe it to confirmation bias rather than climate change.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#127

It's despicable, isn't it? Like, there are climate change deniers that are overly-skeptical or gullible and buy into the mountains of misinformation. And then there are those like Steve Goddard who sit down every day and work their asses off creating said misinformation (check his twitter). Actively manipulating and cherrypicking data to deceive for personal gain (whether it be paychecks, political favor, whatever).…

Want convince 99% of America that Climate Change needs immediate action? Address the following points (without vitriol, deception or animosity): I'm not saying all these are ironclad facts, but this is what you're up against: Alarmists have been wrong many times in the past. Cooling. Warming. 10 foot sea rise by 1980. No, 1990. No, 2000. No 2030, for sure this time. Alarmists have been caught manipulating data, for t…

"Everyone knows that the earth has warmed and cooled since it existed"

This is where things get wrong. Previously warming and cooling has happened over thousands of years. What we see now is something different. A couple hundred years is "instant" in this context.

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#128
Look at the temperature chart for the last 10,000 years, the greenland core ice temperature, GISP2 for example, and you'll see a completely different picture.

Everything looks extreme when looked at a very small scale...

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#129
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same reason for the vitriol against anti-vax. These are people who are claiming to know better than the vast majority of the scientific community (seriously, it's something like 99%+), despite having little to no expertise in the field. Multiple independent governments, thousands of peer reviewed studies across multiple disciplines, data collected from satellites, billions of dollars across decades of research... but…

All this may be true, but appeal to authority is still a logical fallacy. You can't just shame people into believing something they don't understand because "smarter" people believe it. It's a shameful failure of communication more than anything else. And I don't understand why people like you don't understand that.

> appeal to authority is still a logical fallacy

The data are publicly available and the papers relatively accessible. The dismissal isn’t because climate deniers reject the mainstream. It’s because they reject the mainstream without trying to understand it.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#130
post #65

Honest question: Why such vitriol against "climate deniers?" The term "climate denier" is loading with negative connotation just on it's face, and it's rarely used in isolation in an otherwise respectful way. There will always be people that disagree with you about something. Some are honest, some are not. Why be an asshole and treat people poorly and disrespectfully? That makes you as bad or worse than them IMHO. Ev…

First, most of the credentialed ones are funded by fossil fuels industries. Either directly or via shells to obscure sources. And so their objectivity is at least questionable. Second, there's support from public relations firms, also clearly funded by fossil fuels industries. It grew out of the "smokers rights" campaign in the early 80s, which was funded by the tobacco industry. And indeed, the "climate-change denia…

> And indeed, the "climate-change denial" campaign is basically a clone of that.

It is interesting to note that not only is the campaign a clone, but it is in part headed by the same people [1] who were involved in the tobacco business.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt

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