Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store • Hacker News Board

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#121

Post by scarface74 » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:56 PM UTC

arminiusreturns wrote: post #100

scarface74 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is this any more or less insane than every console maker getting a cut of every game distributed either physically or digitally? For you to sell a physical game disk, you still have to have a cryptographic signature issued by the console maker.

Because consoles are proprietary closed source boxen and android isn't?

Everything that makes Android, Android to most Western consumers is closed source - the play store, Google Maps, Youtube, the dialer, Chrome, etc.

Google has abandoned more and more of the open source parts of AOSP with closed source alternatives over the years.

That’s not to mention all of the drivers that are proprietary....

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#122

Post by throw7 » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:56 PM UTC

ocdtrekkie wrote: post #82

Skunkleton wrote: post #5

I can't imagine that 100% of the people interested in fortnite for android are willing to sideload the apk. I would be surprised if this wasn't having a net-negative impact on the total number of android users. I wonder if this is just to avoid paying a percentage on in-app purchases? What else could it be?

If they lose less than 30% of their installs, but are making 30% more on each IAP, they're rolling profit. Bear in mind, most users won't even buy stuff, so the question is... will they lose a lot of paying customers, and my guess for that is no. Also, Tim Sweeney is an outspoken critic of the app store model, so it's unsurprising to see Epic go this way where they can.

sounds like he's a hypocrite also, as his game is on IOS and even available there first.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#123

Post by sushid » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:59 PM UTC

philipov wrote: post #117

Benjammer wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the fact that phone OSes get a cut That's how a platform business _works_ though. I mean we could discuss reasonable limits or something or how a platform effects competition once it's entrenched, but you're basically just saying "The concept of a platform business is an insane racket." Do you think building a global software distribution platform is easy? Let alone the value of compounding network effects.

The concept of a platform business is an insane racket.

How about physical stores and selling items in retail space? Companies pay money to get shelf space and special promotional displays in CPG all the time.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#124

Post by znebby » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 7:00 PM UTC

It was my understanding that Google / Apple do not charge a fee on in-app purchases which are not platform specific and which use third-party payment processing.

Never having played Fortnite, I assumed that in-app purchases are specific to your account and would carry-over if you moved from Android to iOS. Is that not the case?

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#125

Post by kodablah » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 7:04 PM UTC

scarface74 wrote: post #111

kodablah wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple aren't doing anything to prevent competition with their platform. This is a categorically false statement. I can point to a lot of places where Apple are doing quite a bit to prevent competition on their platform. I mean, browser engine choice is the easiest to see of dozens of ways Apple is doing something to prevent competition on their platform. Did you mean something else by your statement I do not unders…

So a lot of places is “1”?

I was just trying to avoid a large and obvious enumeration in my comment. I assumed we all knew things like browser engine, development/compilation hardware, app store choice, software installation method, system OS choice, runtime eval approach (e.g. JIT), phone/sms app choice, keyboard choice, etc, etc are not subject to choice and in most cases competition is actively prevented. I suppose my assumption was wrong though.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#126

Post by jdietrich » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 7:04 PM UTC

jaxondu wrote: post #87

lern_too_spel wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Google Play Store is outside the great firewall and therefore probably unusable in China. Phone makers aren't going to ship phones with unusable app stores, so they need to use alternatives. It's the same reason UC Browser and QQ Browser are so popular in China.

I'm curious why there aren't more app store outside China, as evidently from China example, the app store business is sustainable, and Android outside China has a bigger market.

Play Store is the default app store on essentially all Android devices aside from the Amazon Kindle Fire. Adding a third-party app store involves enabling sideloading in the system settings and manually downloading an APK. Why would a user go to that effort, when essentially all Android apps are already available on the Play Store?

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#127

Post by zakkeg » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 7:05 PM UTC

What would be a reasonable split between Google and app developers? Or is there a better method that Google should use, like charging X% for individual services?

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#128

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 7:06 PM UTC

PunchTornado wrote: post #31

Can't google just block installs from websites in a future android update? I don't want my kid to install apps from websites...

[deleted]

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#129

Post by BrandonM » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 7:06 PM UTC

vosper wrote: post #2

> In the process, it’s costing Google around $50 million this year in platform fees, according to a new report. It's not costing Google anything, and they're not losing money on this either. It's revenue that they might have expected to earn, which they're now not going to be earning.

I hate this sort of framing, and it's so common. "Google will miss out on ..." would have been accurate and still interesting.

The same "lose" language is often used when discussing tax cuts or tax breaks ("lost tax revenue"). I wonder whether those journalists misunderstand economics that much, or if it's done on purpose.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#130

Post by jpdus » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 7:10 PM UTC

I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I am still a big fan of Android´s openess (at least compared to the walled garden that is iOS) and I think it should the right of every company or developer to NOT use a closed platform to distribute its app.

However on the other hand, this move by Epic sets a dangerous precedent: Factually, Google get´s economically punished for being more open than Apple. This does not feel right for me.

From a business point-of-view (when sideloading becomes more common) the "right" move for Google would be to fork AOSP, make new Android versions as closed as iOS (while still distributed for free) and prevent any sideloading. No sane CEO who is measured by increasing shareholder value could justify stayig open if this jeopardizes the revenues without providing major benefits.

I, as a user, think this is a sad and alarming development. However, apparently most comments and media do not share this opinion? Are there any reasons why Google deserves no revenues while Apple get´s 30%? When there are none, this situation can't be sustainable from an economic point of view.