Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak • Hacker News Board

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#101

Post by dredmorbius » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:01 AM UTC

danepowell wrote: post #54

benwerd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood. _Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building…

Sounds like an example of Goodhart's Law: "When a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric." Optimizing for something as abstruse as "engagement" seems like a great way to completely ignore everything that actually makes social networks compelling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

I'd give Gresham some due as well.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#102

Post by askafriend » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:07 AM UTC

soziawa wrote: post #100

askafriend wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any proprietary communications platform meant primarily for communicating between humans can be referred to as a social network. It's a pretty broad definition in my mind.

So letters are a social network?

No but I guess you could argue that language is.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#103

Post by blitmap » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:10 AM UTC

benwerd wrote: post #48

Alex3917 wrote: post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood. _Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building…

I don't want to sound like an ass because I wholeheartedly agree with you. The experience is hollow.

But you can't invest in things you can't quantify. You can't make money off of good vibes and authenticity without metrics. Snapchat and the like have thrown enormous money at understanding humans and have the best people in their fields to get this right.

I think what worked 10 years ago no longer flies now. How we socialize on the web has changed, and we're turned off by the traditional mechanics to keep us viewing. There are many alternatives to the service Facebook offers, but I'd like to people aren't 'showing off' as much anymore and are having more 1-to-1 or small friend-group experiences. The larger community is almost always toxic.

Look at cord-cutting: For the longest time we just ignored commercials, until we didn't.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#104

Post by striking » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:13 AM UTC

blitmap wrote: post #103

benwerd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood. _Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building…

I don't want to sound like an ass because I wholeheartedly agree with you. The experience is hollow. But you can't invest in things you can't quantify. You can't make money off of good vibes and authenticity without metrics. Snapchat and the like have thrown enormous money at understanding humans and have the best people in their fields to get this right. I think what worked 10 years ago no longer flies now. How we s…

Cord cutting isn't just about commercials (indeed, there is an ad supported tier of Hulu).

It's about control over what you get to watch, when. No more waiting around for a particular time, no forgetting to set the DVR. This has always been a nuisance.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#105

Post by spacehome » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:16 AM UTC

natrik wrote: post #93

spacehome wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think email is #1. Personally, it's my favorite because I get to pick and choose who sees each post.

Why can't you pick and choose with IM?

I guess you can. Email seems to be more popular, though. For any given person, there's a higher likelihood they have email than any particular IM client.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#106

Post by hcknwscommenter » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:17 AM UTC

shawn wrote: post #98

john_moscow wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That will work... until a talented guy from a poorer country starts selling a cracked version of your ROM for half the price. Good luck competing with that in a 0% regulated environment.

At least it'd be a fair matchup. Me vs big companies is like an ant vs you. I'm less worried about a talented Russian who's stuck one generation behind my latest work anyway.

except he will be 0.1 generations behind. Literally, the day you release your update he will start feverishly reverse engineering it. Once you show the way with all your hard work, copying becomes easy. Good luck monetizing that.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#107

Post by hcknwscommenter » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:21 AM UTC

shawn wrote: post #77

lsalvatore wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe those "fucked" artists should invent their own characters. You know, being creative instead of copying other people's ideas.

Just like Disney did with Alice in Wonderland, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk862BbjWx4 "And now you, dear filmmaker, want to come along and want to make your own version of Star Wars: A New Hope? For shame! That's like stealing food right out of George Lucas' mouth."

Your comment reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of copyright law. It is perfectly acceptable to copy the basic "idea" of a story. You just can't copy or make derivative works of Star Wars or Alice in Wonderland themselves, but you can copy all the themes and ideas thereof.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#108

Post by lsalvatore » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:24 AM UTC

tomrod wrote: post #81

lsalvatore wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe those "fucked" artists should invent their own characters. You know, being creative instead of copying other people's ideas.

Good artists create. Great artists steal.

Love the quote, but it wasn't referring to ROM-hacking Pokemon Blue and passing it off as your own game.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#109

Post by shawn » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:29 AM UTC

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #106

shawn wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least it'd be a fair matchup. Me vs big companies is like an ant vs you. I'm less worried about a talented Russian who's stuck one generation behind my latest work anyway.

except he will be 0.1 generations behind. Literally, the day you release your update he will start feverishly reverse engineering it. Once you show the way with all your hard work, copying becomes easy. Good luck monetizing that.

I don't disagree, but at least some money would come my way. Currently no money comes. And yeah, I could build my own game with my own characters instead of modding old ones, but why? It'd be fun to put a silly hat on Starfox and make him into Piratefox and make him go yarrrr as he blasts all the innocent bad guys. I wanna try it and I wanna sell it and it'd be hilarious and benefit society and it's stupid I can't.

To be precise, the argument goes like this: Star Fox 64 is not currently generating any economic benefit for Nintendo. It doesn't harm Nintendo for someone to make a derivative work of it. In fact, I'd be more than happy to cut a deal with Nintendo and just give them most of the money. The problem is that no one tries to do this, and we all lose what could have been made.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#110

Post by jchw » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 5:29 AM UTC

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #106

shawn wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least it'd be a fair matchup. Me vs big companies is like an ant vs you. I'm less worried about a talented Russian who's stuck one generation behind my latest work anyway.

except he will be 0.1 generations behind. Literally, the day you release your update he will start feverishly reverse engineering it. Once you show the way with all your hard work, copying becomes easy. Good luck monetizing that.

What's the incentive to crack it, to sell it? Does the cracker sell it for less? Would I be willing to buy a cracked piece of software? It'd be a horribly unsafe idea if it were, for example, security software or a tool for modifying my operating system.

Even in a complete wild west, some people are going to do the right thing. Maybe even most people. Probably is far more a cultural issue than a legal or technical one. Still, I'm not arguing that 100% deregulation is a good idea, just that I don't really think this is a convincing argument.