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Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

nytimes.com

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Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#51

Users are jumping ship to Instagram. Once they duplicated the functionality it was the nail in the coffin for snap. If I had a ton of cash lying around I’d short the stock to zero. Insta was Facebooks greatest acquisition.

Three thousand dollars will get you options until 2020 that you can cash in for $50k worth. You don't need a ton of cash if you think they're going to zero.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#52
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain exactly how blockchains allow societies to create ideas? I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not.

> I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not. So at the software developer level of the stack, what we get are new tools for managing reputation, identity, authentication, transparency, accountability, etc. If you think of people as a graph of nodes, these tools enable novel patterns of trust and collaboration between individuals that aren't possible today. What this means is th…

There's just one small problem: Blockchains are massive, slow, and it takes new users hours or days to join an old blockchain. Once those miiiinor problems are solved, I'll agree.

It makes sense as a store of value. But a realtime database that requires rapid, possibly millisecond-accurate entries? It just hasn't happened yet. Not on a scale that works in practice, anyway.

Example: I tried to use Namecoin a couple days ago. I got bored and quit after a few hours of "Synchronizing network". It seems to have consumed several GB. I just wanted to register a .bit domain. I didn't even get to "How do I acquire namecoin?" because (a) there is no clear "go here and pay this dude" service, and (b) you have to have GBs of free space just to try it. Such experiences are typical of blockchain, and this seems to murder consumer adoption.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#53
post #47

Does HN qualify as "social media"? We are not anywhere near "Peak Social Media". Otherwise investor valuations would not be what they are. Even discounting they can predict the future, Zuck hasn't even got started on his VR/AR "ready player 1" social network dream yet, decentralized social media hasn't had its try for the title yet, and the non-social big 5 are still waiting for FB weakness for their chance to strike…

> decentralized social media hasn't had its try for the title yet

That depends on the answer to your first question. If HN is considered social media, then Usenet needs to be considered social media. In which case decentralized social media already had a good run, but users eventually came to prefer centralized systems.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#54
post #48
post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood. _Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building…

Sounds like an example of Goodhart's Law: "When a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric."

Optimizing for something as abstruse as "engagement" seems like a great way to completely ignore everything that actually makes social networks compelling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add to this, there's also Nextdoor, Discord, YouTube, Telegram, Life360 etc depending on how you define a social network. I'm pretty sure all of these are growing significantly both in the US and abroad. Not to mention all the Asian social networks that are growing like crazy. My theory is that Snap just doesn't have enough differentiation either as a product or as an audience to be sustainable as an independent e…

Genuine question... how is whatsapp a social website vs just a chat application? Perhaps I've missed something critical about it but the way I've used it and seen anyone else use it is just as a replacement for SMS

Any proprietary communications platform meant primarily for communicating between humans can be referred to as a social network. It's a pretty broad definition in my mind.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#57
post #32

Everyone's moved to WhatsApp and IG these days. If you know asians, WeChat is also very strong. People are just moving on.

If you know 'Asians' you'll know that WeChat is primarily a mainland Chinese thing, and different Asian countries have different chat apps that are dominant.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#58

Users are jumping ship to Instagram. Once they duplicated the functionality it was the nail in the coffin for snap. If I had a ton of cash lying around I’d short the stock to zero. Insta was Facebooks greatest acquisition.

The fact Snapchat still runs like shit on Android probably does not help them.
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