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Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

nytimes.com

41–50 of 300 posts

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#41
post #2

My main question is: Where are people going? It seems like there is a slight dip in usage across all social media, but I'm trying to figure out where those hours/days/weeks are being spent. Are people turning to more real-life activities, just broadcasting and communicating less, turning to other up and coming platforms, or relying more on private messaging?

Outside?

This is my thought too. Why do you have to assume that users are choosing a different platform as opposed to just not using their phone/computer?

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#42
post #8

Seems like just a Snap peak to me. Article doesn't mention Instagram, its most direct competitor, or tons of other non-Facebook/Twitter social networks that are gaining popularity (Reddit, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Twitch, even WhatsApp, and many country-specific ones).

As a long time Snapchat user i know my friends at this point like Instagram more. Snapchat’s recent interface changes make little sense and sometimes serve to actively confuse the user experience. Classic case of fixing something that wasn’t broken.

They made the change so they could build out their ad platform and make money. Which they beat estimates on revenue

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add to this, there's also Nextdoor, Discord, YouTube, Telegram, Life360 etc depending on how you define a social network. I'm pretty sure all of these are growing significantly both in the US and abroad. Not to mention all the Asian social networks that are growing like crazy. My theory is that Snap just doesn't have enough differentiation either as a product or as an audience to be sustainable as an independent e…

Genuine question... how is whatsapp a social website vs just a chat application? Perhaps I've missed something critical about it but the way I've used it and seen anyone else use it is just as a replacement for SMS

It technically also has "stories"

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#45
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Web 1.0 lets individuals create and express ideas > Web 2.0 lets groups create and express ideas > Web 3.0 lets societies create and express ideas It's blockchain. Blockchain is what gets us from web 2.0 to web 3.0. The technology is almost here, and after another few years of basic R&D the stuff we're going to be able to start building is going to transform society in ways that are barely even imaginable today.

Could you explain exactly how blockchains allow societies to create ideas? I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not.

> I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not.

So at the software developer level of the stack, what we get are new tools for managing reputation, identity, authentication, transparency, accountability, etc.

If you think of people as a graph of nodes, these tools enable novel patterns of trust and collaboration between individuals that aren't possible today. What this means is that every institution will ultimately have to reimagine itself so as to be cost competitive in the new paradigm, HT Carlota Perez.

To give a more concrete example, think of the 2008 real estate collapse. The reason the market failed isn't because people didn't have the data, it's because no one one going to read through a 3,000 page paper print out to figure out what was actually in whatever debt tranche they happened to buy. But when you can just run a simple Python script to analyze the contents of all that debt and get updates on payments in real time, suddenly those types of systematic market failures can no longer happen. And because a big portion of the lemon market problem is ameliorated, that creates new ways to finance big capital investments that would be completely impossible today.

Think about why we weren't able to have large corporations before double entry was invented/popularized in Florence in the late 1400s, because there was no way to really know if you were making or losing money once you got beyond a certain scale. Because blockchain reduces the costs of double entry accounting by 10,000x, we can (and will) restructure all aspects of society in ways that just aren't possible currently, everything from supply chains to social networks. I think it stands to reason that blockchain is going to be the most financially important technology of the last 500 years, since imho it's the biggest innovation since double entry accounting.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#46
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Web 1.0 lets individuals create and express ideas > Web 2.0 lets groups create and express ideas > Web 3.0 lets societies create and express ideas It's blockchain. Blockchain is what gets us from web 2.0 to web 3.0. The technology is almost here, and after another few years of basic R&D the stuff we're going to be able to start building is going to transform society in ways that are barely even imaginable today.

Could you explain exactly how blockchains allow societies to create ideas? I'm not sure how append only lists allow idea sharing in ways a database does not.

Alex isn't wrong. But I don't think it's blockchain. It's decentralization in general.

For example, I want to release a tool that can mod old ROMs. I cannot legally sell this. This is a new idea, I'd like to make a living with it, but I can't. And why not? Because the concept of IP has turned us into servants.

Meanwhile you have youtube series like Freeman's Mind https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SQhfkpX9bc making a killing, and I'm preeeetty sure he didn't ask Valve for permission. Nintendo is possibly the most litigious game company in history, and will aggressively shut down anything remotely connected to any of their characters. The whole situation is completely fucked for artists, and decentralization can solve it.

Unfortunately it looks like I'm born a couple generations too early to benefit, but at least my kids might.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#47
Does HN qualify as "social media"?

We are not anywhere near "Peak Social Media". Otherwise investor valuations would not be what they are.

Even discounting they can predict the future, Zuck hasn't even got started on his VR/AR "ready player 1" social network dream yet, decentralized social media hasn't had its try for the title yet, and the non-social big 5 are still waiting for FB weakness for their chance to strike with something new.

Not to mention whatever comes out of the BRICS countries that may be some innovation over SV social media tech.

This baby still has a lot of miles left in it, I think.

Fundamentally, people's desire for distraction / convenient "human connection" has not yet been sated. (Will it ever?)

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#48
post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.

_Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building something that meets their real needs, everything has been about maximizing hollow engagement metrics. And guess what? That's good for short term revenue but not long term trust. If you're running a startup and the main way you learn about your users is through statistical tracking and A/B testing, you're missing an important opportunity to get to know them properly. They will lead the way and although you can't simply ask them what they want, if you understand them deeply you'll know what to do.

I'm excited about the next wave of platforms, which are tapping into enormous unmet needs. It's early days, and I can't stand the "web 3" label, but there's definitely going to be a sea change.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#50
post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

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