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OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

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Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#81
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they did release the likely-very-big model, your personal computer is likely not fast enough to make 2-3 actions per second (x5) and update weights in real time without a beefy GPU.

Thank you for the reply minimaxir - are you sure a 2015 macbook pro cannot run a compiled version of the neural net so it can play itself on my computer? Just wanted to double check - can someone else verify this before I spend weeks seeing if I can get it to work?

I'm pretty sure that a macbook pro could run the 5 agents using minimal GPU acceleration (eg WebGL)

A 1024 unit LSTM only takes up a few megabytes of memory, and the multiplications at runtime are O(N^2) and not O(N^2 M), because you don't have a minibatch of updates to run.

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#82
What the cases so far tell us: Once an AI beats humans who have spent 10,000 hours practicing a skill, it is a matter of time before it beats the best professionals in the field.

Cases it already happened: board games such as Chess and Go, Poker, diagnostics of certain diseases using medical images

Cases where AI is still clearly inferior: video understanding, natural language understanding, motor control esp of hands and legs, general medicine, driving

Hard-to-classified cases (AI is better for some instances, worse for others): image tagging and classification, speech recognition (speech-to-text), diagnostics of certain other diseases using medical images (which might need to take into account other information outside of images)

More examples esp counter examples are welcome.

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#83
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that AIs will eventually win. But I only consider human beings beaten when the AI is interfacing with the machine the same way as humans -- looking at the monitor, and inputting commands through keyboard and mouse. That is on a different level than just hooking into a log of events and calculating your next move. Given enough time humans would do that better than the AI imo

Come on, do you think hooking a robot to the keyboard is the hard part? Do you want 5 fingers too? And if watching the screen, do you want it to have bad eyes like we do too (good resolution only in the center)?

Come on, do you think hooking a robot to the keyboard is the hard part? Do you want 5 fingers too?

Yes, it is. Also, “seeing” the screen rather than being able to directly introspect the game world digitally. Orders of magnitude harder. This is known as Moravec’s Paradox.

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#84
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that AIs will eventually win. But I only consider human beings beaten when the AI is interfacing with the machine the same way as humans -- looking at the monitor, and inputting commands through keyboard and mouse. That is on a different level than just hooking into a log of events and calculating your next move. Given enough time humans would do that better than the AI imo

Come on, do you think hooking a robot to the keyboard is the hard part? Do you want 5 fingers too? And if watching the screen, do you want it to have bad eyes like we do too (good resolution only in the center)?

The relevant question is surely how much of the game is strategy, and how much is reaction time and twitch motor skills.

I mean, "human vs AI" matchups are ostensibly about strategy - machines already win at timing and twitch, there's nothing to test. But esports games aren't pure strategy, they all involve various amounts of timing, twitch skills, the ability to monitor lots of details at once, etc. Those are all things that AI opponents can (trivially) do perfectly, which gives the AI a huge advantage. It then follows that an AI player should be able to win even with an inferior strategy (which makes you wonder if these games are really suited to AI research in the first place?).

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#85
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether the AI teaches us or not, once it surpasses us, we will not catch up. This is the case for every game AI that has ever surpassed human performance so far, and there's no reason to expect that this will be different in the case of DotA.

> game AI that has ever surpassed human performance so far Am I missing something, or does that set consist of Checkers, Chess, and Go so far? (presumably with analogous misc games of comparable complexity) Discounting the reaction time wins, I'd say the sample size is too limited to generalize to eventual AI behavior in more complex / open-ended games. Extrapolation was the cause of the last AI winter.

I think you're looking at things with a sort of hindsight bias. Victory at chess was at one time considered to be the indicator of the emergence of true 'intelligence' in computing. The reason is that it's an extremely open, creative, and strategic game spattered with a minefield of tactical nuance. Nobody, human or computer, is getting even remotely close to scratching the depth of the game from a numeric point of view. There are some specifics on the numeric complexity of the game here [1].

The reason I point out the unfathomable numeric complexity is that it makes the games, from the perspective of an AI, effectively infinite. AIs are calculating, but to an extremely superficial degree relative to the depth of the game. E.g. - when a chess program says it's calculated to 30 ply (15 moves for both sides) what it really says is that it's seen up to 15 moves deep after intentionally ignoring or pruning 99.9999999999% of moves which it thinks probably aren't good -- something it still often gets wrong, but its 'understanding' of what is 'not wrong' is strong enough that it still results in a phenomenally strong level of play, compared to humans. There's no doubt that perfect play in chess would still go 1 billion - 0 against something like AlphaZero.

So what matters is not the number of decisions to be made but the individual complexity of the decisions to be made. And in most games we consider complex the individual decisions are not really that complex, and complex systems can often be broken down into very simple games. For instance a great example of this is a 4x game. Taken as a whole they seem complex, but they're really just a large number of relatively simple components that are mostly independent. E.g. - Given this state, where do you explore next? Given this state, what do you research next? Etc. Another benefit for AIs in that in games we consider more complex, the value of any given mistake often becomes diminished. If you make a single bad move in chess, it's enough to lose the game. In a 4x game the weight of individual decisions is not so high, it's all about the big picture. But as perhaps computer success in Go shows most clearly, actually seeing the big picture is not really necessary to produce play like you do.

This, I think, is why research has moved more onto real time competitive games. Crushing humans at chess, go, and now poker as well is a pretty solid proof of concept for computers beating humans at any turn based game. When you start adding bunches of different layers to games I think it's more likely to handicap the human than the computer. Imagine playing some sort of 100x100 chess. We can only speculate, but I imagine the distance between the top AIs and humans would be far greater than it is in 8x8 chess.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_number

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#86
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Come on, do you think hooking a robot to the keyboard is the hard part? Do you want 5 fingers too? And if watching the screen, do you want it to have bad eyes like we do too (good resolution only in the center)?

Yea, I think having a robot use fingers to manipulate the keyboard like a human is a very hard part

Have you seen the robots that place components on circuit boards? I don't think that hitting keys on a keyboard is more difficult.

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they did release the likely-very-big model, your personal computer is likely not fast enough to make 2-3 actions per second (x5) and update weights in real time without a beefy GPU.

You don't need to update any weights, the model is already trained.

Ignorant here. How do you take an already trained model and execute it elsewhere? Isn’t the training phase part of the whole (ongoing) simulation?

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#88

What the cases so far tell us: Once an AI beats humans who have spent 10,000 hours practicing a skill, it is a matter of time before it beats the best professionals in the field. Cases it already happened: board games such as Chess and Go, Poker, diagnostics of certain diseases using medical images Cases where AI is still clearly inferior: video understanding, natural language understanding , motor control esp of han…

I actually have an intuition around using modular neural networks with dynamic topology to tackle more complex disease cases, general medicine, and other complex, hierarchical problems. I'm working towards trying to use them in my thesis for school

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, interacting with the mouse and keyboard isn't the interesting part. Like, imagine if this was a chess AI, and we were trying to determine who was better at chess, humans or AI. Would you make the AI use robotic hands to move the pieces? No, because thats not the interesting part of chess. The interesting part of chess is the strategy.

Agreed that the strategy is an interesting part. Another interesting part will be creating an AI / neural network that can utilize inputs that are closer to human level inputs (e.g., using the frame buffer and audio out as input to the neural network and passing the outputs of the neural network to a keyboard and mouse driver). Just let the network train itself without having a human laboriously determine the topolog…

The main reasons they don't do this are that it's a fairly known quantity from an ML perspective (going from sequences of images to representational features), so wouldn't be proving that much to be able to do (c.f. the various Atari benchmarks which adequately learned actions to achieve rewards working with pixel inputs)... but at the same time would consume a huge fraction of the computer resource they really want to be targeting at the core timing/tactics/strategy problems... which is where they're really going beyond what's been demonstrated elsewhere with RL.

I agree it'll be even cooler when it all justworkstm end to end, but in terms of incremental 'holyshiticantbelievethatworked' this is at least as big a step as it will be when they add in direct visual input.

Re: OpenAI bots competing against Humans right now

#90
post #56

In the last game of the series the bots were forced to play an intentionally terrible hero lineup. The humans finally got to win a game but more interesting for me was that the times when the AI did seemingly crazy things were much more common. I wonder if this is an artifact of the training methodology: maybe if your team is very weak then your choices are also weaker, and reinforcement learning doesn't work as well…

I think this might be a result of "the only winning move is not to play", so to speak. If the game is, in the mind of the AI agents, unwinnable, not playing is not an option, therefore it begins to pick random actions instead.

I'm not sure if the AI can surrender (I only managed to watch the first two games as it was rather late at night) but it might be a path to explore; having the AI give up if the game cannot be won anymore.

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