Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#221

Post by ggm » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 6:11 AM UTC

Alex3917 wrote: post #10

> In July 2018, we delivered our 200,000th vehicle in the US, which means that our US customers will have access to the full $7,500 federal tax credit until the end of 2018 So basically they have until the end of the year to produce as many cars as possible and get their finances in good shape, otherwise they're in trouble.

So basically they have until the end of the year to produce as many cars as possible and get their finances in good shape, otherwise they're in trouble.

So.. can you explain everything after 'otherwise' please? In what sense are they in trouble?

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#222

Post by avar » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 7:10 AM UTC

freehunter wrote: post #169

rconti wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely is impressive, and they deserve great credit for their advancements-- I never liked the Prius but it was beyond obvious that every car in the future HAD to have a way of capturing deceleration energy rather than just bleeding it off as crude waste heat -- how silly and archaic that seems now. But I'm not quite clear on your comment-- At first I thought it was to be read that the Toyota accomplishment wa…

I was pretty impressed that my entirely gasoline-powered BMW 3-series apparently will use the braking energy to recharge the battery and disconnect the alternator, saving some small amount of MPG. So the technology is trickling into gasoline-powered cars as well, to save small amounts of fuel. I've driven a stick-shift for a while in the past and always wondered if there was a way to capture the engine power when you…

You could integrate an alternator with the gearbox in some way, and only connect it if your foot is off the pedal, or if you're about to run out of electricity.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#223

Post by sizzle » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 7:17 AM UTC

gnicholas wrote: post #135

rconti wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just sold my R 2 weeks ago and picked up a 3. :) Both fantastic cars in their own right.

Is a "3" a Tesla Model 3, or something else? I recently saw someone refer to this vehicle as an "M3", which was pretty confusing given the BMW vehicle that goes by this name. I realize this thread is about Teslas, but still folks are referring to non-Teslas here as well.

Weird, usually I hear "M" denoting a bmw M3. If I heard 3, and it's a bmw car enthusiast then I'm thinking 335i.

Maybe 3 will (hopefully) become associated with Tesla in the future and not BMW 3 series cause they are a dime a dozen in major metro areas.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#224

Post by Shivetya » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 9:13 AM UTC

freehunter wrote: post #169

rconti wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely is impressive, and they deserve great credit for their advancements-- I never liked the Prius but it was beyond obvious that every car in the future HAD to have a way of capturing deceleration energy rather than just bleeding it off as crude waste heat -- how silly and archaic that seems now. But I'm not quite clear on your comment-- At first I thought it was to be read that the Toyota accomplishment wa…

I was pretty impressed that my entirely gasoline-powered BMW 3-series apparently will use the braking energy to recharge the battery and disconnect the alternator, saving some small amount of MPG. So the technology is trickling into gasoline-powered cars as well, to save small amounts of fuel. I've driven a stick-shift for a while in the past and always wondered if there was a way to capture the engine power when you…

my 2012 Z4 had limited recapture as well, it was a manual transmission with start/stop. It was there to mostly keep the battery up so you could start/stop. There was zero indication of it doing anything which I really found as a missed opportunity. You can really alter people's driving behavior if they see they are being "rewarded".

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#225

Post by nickik » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 10:48 AM UTC

tomp wrote: post #199

TimTheTinker wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX has Gwynne Shotwell. I’m not sure there’s a similarly capable decision maker at Tesla.

Do you have any more information about her, e.g. an interview or biographical article that would detail her talents? I'm wondering why you're judging her so highly (no tone other than factual question intended).

In the SpaceX and even the whole aerospace community this is basically assumed because of years and years of her interactions and conduct.

Generally the theme is, if she says it the likely hood of something happening goes up 300%.

That said, I don't necessary think that you can assume a direct causation of the difference between SpaceX and Tesla based on her alone.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#226

Post by femidav » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 11:00 AM UTC

gok wrote: post #206

> Gigafactory 1 battery production reached an annualized run rate of roughly 20 GWh Kind of interesting...the typical laptop has a 50 Wh battery, and there are about 160 million laptop sales per year. A typical smartphone has a 5 Wh battery and there are about 1.5 billion smartphones sales per year. So that one factory makes just about enough batteries for all the laptops and smartphones.

And we would need 730 of such factories to provide all of 73 million annually produced cars with a 200kWh battery.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#227

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 2:12 PM UTC

secabeen wrote: post #30

Alex3917 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even that phaseout will probably result in a lot of cancellations from people who have been on the waiting list for several months already but who haven't taken delivery by the end of the year. Especially for the orders at the lower end of the price spectrum, which haven't even started shipping yet. Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact sa…

> Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact same car. It's 10% more at most, and they are making it pretty clear now that the Short Range model will not be available before January 2019. Even then, many people can't even realize the entirety of a $7,500 tax credit. A single person needs $60k in income to generate $7,500 in taxes due after the…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#228

Post by freehunter » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 2:33 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #224

freehunter wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was pretty impressed that my entirely gasoline-powered BMW 3-series apparently will use the braking energy to recharge the battery and disconnect the alternator, saving some small amount of MPG. So the technology is trickling into gasoline-powered cars as well, to save small amounts of fuel. I've driven a stick-shift for a while in the past and always wondered if there was a way to capture the engine power when you…

my 2012 Z4 had limited recapture as well, it was a manual transmission with start/stop. It was there to mostly keep the battery up so you could start/stop. There was zero indication of it doing anything which I really found as a missed opportunity. You can really alter people's driving behavior if they see they are being "rewarded".

On my 2016 3 series there's an MPG bar below the speedo, and if you're in Comfort mode and coasting it will light up the battery in blue. If you're in Eco mode and braking it will flip the bar to say "charge". So I guess on newer models they took your advice and made it a bit more visible, and it definitely does impact my driving behavior because I want to see it light up blue :)

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#229

Post by AshleyGrant » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 3:59 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #150

AshleyGrant wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm a big BMW fan, and they keep promising that they'll be selling normal electric cars Real Soon Like Now I feel ya. I'm a chapter officer in the BMW Car Club, but we just placed an order for a Model 3 for my wife on Saturday. The only thing even remotely on the horizon for BMW is the iX3, which will be produced in China (even though BMW produces all X3s in the US currently). It will only have 250 miles of range. A…

I've got a Clownshoe but in 2015 I also bought a Golf R 6MT (replaced by the Tesla) instead of an F31 3 series wagon because of BMW's shortsightedness in not bringing a manual over anymore -- a car I waited YEARS for, basically since the E91 was discontinued. I always argued that by catering to the fashionistas instead of car people, they wouldn't have a "base" once the fashion went elsewhere. Well, the fashion is go…

BMW has definitely decided that the X vehicles are what Americans will buy if they want cargo space. Those of us who have no desire to drive an SUV or "Crossover" seem to be the minority these days, unfortunately.

BMW is hitting it out of the park with the M2, but their mass market vehicles of the G generation seem to be missing the point as the market moves to EVs.

Hopefully VW will knock it out of the park w/the Taycan and it's charging network.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#230

Post by Zanni » Thu, Aug 02, 2018, 4:03 PM UTC

twblalock wrote: post #54

Puer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

Today one can buy electric and/or hybrid cars from Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Volvo, Audi, and even Jaguar. They are not going to stop making gas guzzlers, but they are steadily increasing their commitment to electric cars. If electric cars take over the mass market, most of them will be made by established carmakers who know how to crank out millions of cars per year and have thousands of de…

At some point this is going to become the limiting factor for EV adoption, but I don't think we're there yet. The market's small enough that single-family homeowners can sustain it.

BTW, depending on where you live, you may be able to have a charging station installed (at your expense). In Hawaii, condo associations must allow the installation of charging stations. Less useful for apartment renters, but possibly still an option. You can read stories on Tesla forums of renters who convinced their apartment owners to spring for a bank of charging spots, though it's an effort.

And there are people who make it work without home charging. I did that for a year before I got my own charging station installed, but for anyone who puts serious miles on their car, it's a nightmare--a green version of Mad Max--hunting for an opening in one of the few public spots. Wouldn't recommend it.