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Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

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Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#141

Post by com2kid »

iainmerrick wrote: post #117
acover wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hatchbacks cost more

I was going to say you’re wrong, but apparently in the US you’re right! Very strange. I think that is a US-specific thing. For some reason US customers prefer sedans (maybe some of the reasons given by other commenters) and that has probably skewed the market a bit (e.g. hatchbacks are only sold at higher trim levels since they’re marketed as a niche product). Edit to add: and maybe there’s a feedback effect too? Hat…

> I was going to say you’re wrong, but apparently in the US you’re right! Very strange.

Depends on brand. Kia charges the same either way.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#142

Post by avar »

Meekro wrote: post #119
Puer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

Large cars are safer. The IIHS publishes a stat they call "driver deaths per million registered vehicle years." Check it out: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/on-the-road-again-... Notice a pattern? All of the safest cars (including the handful in which nobody died) are large. Mostly SUVs and pickups, with a few luxury sedans thrown in. All of the least safe cars are small. Many of them are tiny . Incidental…

Are larger cars increasing safety overall, or are they just "winning" in crashes v.s. smaller vehicles? Would the driver of the Ford Fiesta still be alive if he'd crashed into another Fiesta instead of a Jeep Cherokee?

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#143

Post by lawrenceyan »

bjl wrote: post #122
lawrenceyan wrote: post #14

Looks like the bankruptcy short thesis has been pretty much debunked, cash burn way below expected.

Not really. Accounts payable ballooned to around $3B, and cash on hand is only ~$2B (of which about $1B is in the form of revokable deposits).

You're sort of cherrypicking those numbers aren't you?... If you look a few lines down, you'll see that total liabilities and equity have gone down by over $1B. Also it's not ~$2B, it's $2.8B from $3.2B last quarter, which was my point about the cash burn. It's clear that the fears of running out of cash and defaulting are completely unfounded. They have multiple years of burn rate.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#144

Post by gamblor956 »

adventured wrote: post #44
bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

Plausibly. For example BMW 3 + Audi A4 is only around 100,000 per year in the US combined. The Tesla skeptics have gone out of their way to try to ignore what a dramatic accomplishment selling so many Model 3's so quickly represents (and doing so at such an elevated price point). To top it off, the reviews keep coming in that several of the more ridiculous early manufacturing problems with the Model 3 have been fixed…

Tesla sold fewer than 20,000 Model 3s in Q2. How is that an accomplishment?

Tesla is also claiming 50% of an extremely niche segment. It's like someone bragging about having the top-selling book in the Historical Sci-Fi Alien Albinos category.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#145

Post by toomuchtodo »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #75
sp332 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but since they did just start selling a lot of cars, the runway calculation is now moot.

> since they did just start selling a lot of cars, the runway calculation is now moot These runway calculations are only moot once Tesla is cash flow positive.

Rather, they’re moot once Tesla has exhausted diluting equity and issuing in the bond markets.

Cash on hand is important, but not the end all be all. See MoviePass and how they were extended additional funds ($5MM) even with no business plan and road to profitability.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#146

Post by pmyteh »

Meekro wrote: post #119
Puer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

Large cars are safer. The IIHS publishes a stat they call "driver deaths per million registered vehicle years." Check it out: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/on-the-road-again-... Notice a pattern? All of the safest cars (including the handful in which nobody died) are large. Mostly SUVs and pickups, with a few luxury sedans thrown in. All of the least safe cars are small. Many of them are tiny . Incidental…

Part of that is that in multi -vehicle accidents bigger cars do more damage to small ones because they have more mass. So the bigger car is definitely safer for its occupants, but not necessarily better overall.

Pedestrian vs SUV bull bars turned out to be so grim for the pedestrians that they've been banned in Europe. The occupant safety statistics only tell part of the story.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#147

Post by kevingadd »

kposehn wrote: post #121
curuinor wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, unironically, yes. Prius is one of the most remarkable cars ever, even if actual car enthusiasts weren't very enthused.

As a car enthusiast, while I absolutely despise the driving dynamics of a Prius I deeply appreciate that it and other hybrids have had such a positive impact on cars. Hybrids are now becoming the standard for next gen drivers cars and are honestly pretty amazing tech. Now if only people would stop driving their Prius' 10-under in the fast lane.

It's hard to overstate just how weird the driving dynamics of a Prius are. I have a used one from like 8 years ago and going from it to driving a regular car is always a big adjustment because a Prius just doesn't handle like any other car. Solid commuter vehicle either way, though, and I can't complain about the gas mileage!

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#148

Post by gamblor956 »

secabeen wrote: post #30
Alex3917 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even that phaseout will probably result in a lot of cancellations from people who have been on the waiting list for several months already but who haven't taken delivery by the end of the year. Especially for the orders at the lower end of the price spectrum, which haven't even started shipping yet. Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact sa…

> Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact same car. It's 10% more at most, and they are making it pretty clear now that the Short Range model will not be available before January 2019. Even then, many people can't even realize the entirety of a $7,500 tax credit. A single person needs $60k in income to generate $7,500 in taxes due after the…

7500/35,000 = 21.4%

It's a 21% price increase, assuming the buyer would have been fully eligible for the credit.

Yeah, that's definitely going to change the math for a lot of prospective buyers. A basic Model 3 isn't worth $35,000 cash compared to other similarly priced EVs, especially not when those competitors will still qualify for the rebate.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#149

Post by [deleted] »

chaostheory wrote: post #80
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

> I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. It looks better than the Bolt or Leaf https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/volt-plug-in-hybrid EV range is about 55 miles Gas range is about 250 miles

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#150

Post by rconti »

AshleyGrant wrote: post #84
rconti wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory, yes. We just drove our Model 3 home 13 days ago. IF you want an electric car, nothing else on the market has the compelling mix of features that the 3 has, IMO. I'm a big BMW fan, and they keep promising that they'll be selling normal electric cars Real Soon Like Now, but frankly, most automaker efforts are either 'weird' electrics like the i3 or Leaf or Bolt (which have their own range or fast charging ne…

>I'm a big BMW fan, and they keep promising that they'll be selling normal electric cars Real Soon Like Now I feel ya. I'm a chapter officer in the BMW Car Club, but we just placed an order for a Model 3 for my wife on Saturday. The only thing even remotely on the horizon for BMW is the iX3, which will be produced in China (even though BMW produces all X3s in the US currently). It will only have 250 miles of range. A…

I've got a Clownshoe but in 2015 I also bought a Golf R 6MT (replaced by the Tesla) instead of an F31 3 series wagon because of BMW's shortsightedness in not bringing a manual over anymore -- a car I waited YEARS for, basically since the E91 was discontinued. I always argued that by catering to the fashionistas instead of car people, they wouldn't have a "base" once the fashion went elsewhere. Well, the fashion is going to electric cars and they're being left behind...
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