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Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

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Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#131

Post by coredog64 »

aphextron wrote: post #92
mikepavone wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Given that Ford is largely abandoning sedans, it would seem that they're not particularly popular anymore. The Leaf and Bolt aren't all that weird looking for hatchbacks. Original Leaf had some weird-ish features (like the headlights), but mostly had a similar profile to the Nissan Versa hatchback. The new 2018 mod…

>Given that Ford is largely abandoning sedans, *Entirely abandoning. Ford no longer produces any sedan models [0]. [0] http://fortune.com/2018/04/26/ford-no-longer-making-sedans/

I believe that only applies to the North American market. It's still possible that they'll make sedans for Europe. It's also possible that they'll continue to make sedans but jack them up and call them crossovers.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#132

Post by kanox »

dmode wrote: post #66

Tesla only sold 104 Roadstars in 2011. Now they are on track to sell 250,000 Model S, X, and 3 combined in 2018. The scale of Tesla's accomplishment is truly under appreciated. It becomes even more impressive when you realize that this is an electric car, sold by Tesla owned stores, supported by over a thousand Superchargers. Amazing !!

I don't follow Tesla or the automotive market but I do follow space and for many years SpaceX was mocked because of it's low launch rate and delays. They are now #2 by launch rate, behind only China. SpaceX launches 2x to 3x more often than ULA or Ariane and their rampup was also faster than that of comparable vehicles.

The argument that a company can't build it's product fast enough to satisfy demand strikes me as extremely weak: as long as margins as positive the production problems are solvable.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#133

Post by maccam94 »

tedunangst wrote: post #106
sp332 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that depends on how fast you think they're selling cars right now or in the near future. And how much money they make on each model. Just guess, basically.

What if I guess they aren't making enough profit or selling enough cars to make the runway calculations moot? I mean, people basically said the same about Groupon. "Once they become profitable the losses won't matter." Except Groupon hardly turned out to be the juggernaut that rewrote how commerce is done.

Independent assessments show them making a large (30%) profit margin per vehicle: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-16/tesla-mod...

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#134

Post by _Microft »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57
_Microft wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"$528 million in six month" sounds a lot worse than what the report itself says, namely Cash outflow from operating activities in Q2 2018 was $130 million, which was significantly better than outflows of $398 million in Q1. This improvement occurred despite a substantial increase in finished goods vehicle inventory of $579 million as a result of the timing of deliveries.

I was reading their GAAP metrics for six months, as presented on their Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows. (For the three months ending 30 June 2018, operations burned $129 million and CAPEX was $609 million.) I saw the numbers in the narrative and am curious what costs they're including (or revenue items they're bringing forward) for these non-GAAP measures. Generally speaking, absent explanation, I defa…

The $398 million can be found in the same table in the adjacent column for Q1 (3 month ending in 31 march)? CAPEX has decreased in Q2 by about $45 million compared to Q1 btw.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#135

Post by gnicholas »

rconti wrote: post #125
chipotle_coyote wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Volkswagen GTI and Golf R would like a word with you.

Just sold my R 2 weeks ago and picked up a 3. :) Both fantastic cars in their own right.

Is a "3" a Tesla Model 3, or something else? I recently saw someone refer to this vehicle as an "M3", which was pretty confusing given the BMW vehicle that goes by this name.

I realize this thread is about Teslas, but still folks are referring to non-Teslas here as well.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#136

Post by Redoubts »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

There also was the VW e-Golf, though they stopped making them in 2018. I'm not sure if that means anything for other manufacturers.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/30/volkswagens-decision-to...

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#138

Post by zbentley »

woofyman wrote: post #128
Meekro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large cars are safer. The IIHS publishes a stat they call "driver deaths per million registered vehicle years." Check it out: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/on-the-road-again-... Notice a pattern? All of the safest cars (including the handful in which nobody died) are large. Mostly SUVs and pickups, with a few luxury sedans thrown in. All of the least safe cars are small. Many of them are tiny . Incidental…

You need to look at the demographics of the drivers. Younger, inexperienced drivers drive smaller cars.

Aren't there a couple of feedback loops there?

Younger/inexperienced drivers buy affordable cars, which are affordable because they are [perceived as] less safe.

Older drivers, of people with the income to make a choice who care about perception, buy cars that are [perceived as] more safe.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#140

Post by MBCook »

twblalock wrote: post #54
Puer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

Today one can buy electric and/or hybrid cars from Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Volvo, Audi, and even Jaguar. They are not going to stop making gas guzzlers, but they are steadily increasing their commitment to electric cars. If electric cars take over the mass market, most of them will be made by established carmakers who know how to crank out millions of cars per year and have thousands of de…

And even if you do have a garage, would your apartment complex allow you to install a real charger? Or would you get stuck charging with 110v?

Unfortunately that little piece of infrastructure could easily be a deal killer for a ton of people.

Not everyone is a homeowner with a garage. And parking in a charging space at some random retail establishment every couple days for a few hours to charge just seems insane.

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