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Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

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Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#51

Post by mtw »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

One of the design constraint comes from the size of batteries. This is the battery for a Toyota Camry hybrid, a car with very limited electric range : https://images.hgmsites.net/med/toyota-camry-hybrid-battery-... Imagine the size required for Prius batteries or other electric cars! They just didn't come up one day with the idea of selling ugly cars

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#52

Post by barbegal »

luminiferous wrote: post #42
bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-c... Tesla has a history of drawing misleading market share graphs by comparing its cars against cars that reasonably would be considered to be in different market segments. You would have to be pretty charitable to call the model 3 a mid-sized sedan, for example.

The Model 3 is being categorised as a mid-size sedan by pretty much everyone.

What is misleading is neglecting some other premium mid size sedans from the market [1] such as the Acura TLX and the Inifinit Q50. On top of that the premium mid size sedan market is only about 3% (by volume) of the total US auto industry so 50% market share in that category is still only 1.5% of the total market.

[1] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-q4-2017-premiu...

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#53

Post by giobox »

zjaffee wrote: post #49
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Because battery technology isn't where it needs to be yet, where Tesla is absolutely winning when it comes to this. Honda released their plug in Honda Clarity, but it only has a range of 89 miles.

This simply isn't true - the Chevrolet Bolt has an EPA-estimate 238 mile range, with many reviewers getting close to 300. Pretty much what you get in a base Model 3. What's more you can actually walk into a dealership and buy a Bolt today, good luck trying that with a Model 3. It also costs almost 15 grand less than the cheapest Model 3 Tesla is currently shipping, given they still don't have a release date for the mythical 35k mass market version.

Batteries are increasingly just a commodity, and will become more so as the rest of the industry ramps up electric car production.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#54

Post by twblalock »

Puer wrote: post #34
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

Today one can buy electric and/or hybrid cars from Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Volvo, Audi, and even Jaguar. They are not going to stop making gas guzzlers, but they are steadily increasing their commitment to electric cars.

If electric cars take over the mass market, most of them will be made by established carmakers who know how to crank out millions of cars per year and have thousands of dealerships across the country. I'm sure they will be grateful to Tesla for proving the concept, but the traditional automakers won't have much trouble ramping up production once they know the market is there.

By the way, I would love to have an electric car but I don't have anywhere to charge it because I live in an apartment without a garage. Charging it at work is not realistic for me -- we have some charging spots, but it's really difficult to get one because so many of my coworkers also want to use them. There are millions of customers like me who need the charging infrastructure to improve before electric car ownership becomes practical, and we are going to keep giving our money to the traditional automakers.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#55

Post by barbegal »

secabeen wrote: post #47
luminiferous wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-c... Tesla has a history of drawing misleading market share graphs by comparing its cars against cars that reasonably would be considered to be in different market segments. You would have to be pretty charitable to call the model 3 a mid-sized sedan, for example.

That's a good point. Putting the 3 against the 5 series and E-Class is not really fair to MB and BMW. The 3 should be going against the C-Class and the 3-series, and there it has the highest share, but not 50%.

The Model 3 is up against the 3 Series and the C-Class.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#56

Post by rconti »

tedunangst wrote: post #45
Puer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

If you sell a gas car today, you can sell the same customer an electric car tomorrow.

In theory, yes.

We just drove our Model 3 home 13 days ago. IF you want an electric car, nothing else on the market has the compelling mix of features that the 3 has, IMO.

I'm a big BMW fan, and they keep promising that they'll be selling normal electric cars Real Soon Like Now, but frankly, most automaker efforts are either 'weird' electrics like the i3 or Leaf or Bolt (which have their own range or fast charging network issues), or PROMISES to bolt electric motors to existing cars like the 3 series. It's great that they think that will magically result in an electric car, but it doesn't resolve the fast charging network issues, I've seen no real promises of charging network investments, UI that makes it easy to find said chargers, etc. Maybe it's in the works, I don't know, but the fact that they're not even publicizing whatever efforts they're making mean that they're not making a splash in the market; they're not trying hard enough.

The 3 feels like a substantially different rethink of the car; it's on when I touch the door handle (or sooner, if I start the A/C via the app). Other automakers seem lost in the "take a car, remove the gas engine, replace with electric motors, and BAM, electric car!" mindset.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#57

Post by JumpCrisscross »

_Microft wrote: post #13
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

For the six months ending in June 2018 Tesla's operations burned $528 million of cash. It also spent $1.27 billion on CAPEX. At quarter's end, they have $2.2 billion of cash on hand. That's like 7 months of runway. What's keeping the boat plugged up is debt. Good news is, there are no obvious bond market bogeymen on the horizon in the very near-term.

"$528 million in six month" sounds a lot worse than what the report itself says, namely Cash outflow from operating activities in Q2 2018 was $130 million, which was significantly better than outflows of $398 million in Q1. This improvement occurred despite a substantial increase in finished goods vehicle inventory of $579 million as a result of the timing of deliveries.

I was reading their GAAP metrics for six months, as presented on their Condensed Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows. (For the three months ending 30 June 2018, operations burned $129 million and CAPEX was $609 million.)

I saw the numbers in the narrative and am curious what costs they're including (or revenue items they're bringing forward) for these non-GAAP measures. Generally speaking, absent explanation, I default to GAAP.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#58

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

secabeen wrote: post #38
bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

> Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? Yes, when comparing to other compact luxury sedans such as the BMW 3-series and the M-B C-Class, yes, they are at 50% market share. The question becomes, are they just selling cars to people who would have bought a car in that class, or are…

The Model 3's shipping though are essentially luxury models though, correct? Not the cheap one that would compete with a Camry, Accord, Malibu, all of which can be had for around 20k.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#59

Post by ironjunkie »

Alex3917 wrote: post #27
romski wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The information regarding the subsidy limit being hit soon was freely available to depositors.

Sure, and it's fully refundable. So there is no reason not to put down the deposit and then cancel if you don't take delivery by the time the incentive starts to phase out.

Well, except that 1000$ invested a couple years ago in a standard SP500 ETF would give you a ~1350$ payout today [1].

So basically, you are paying ~350$ of opportunity cost to take that decision.

[1] April 2016 (deposit date) VOO price was ~190$. Today it is 258$.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#60

Post by sp332 »

quest88 wrote: post #35
sp332 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but since they did just start selling a lot of cars, the runway calculation is now moot.

What is it now?

Well that depends on how fast you think they're selling cars right now or in the near future. And how much money they make on each model. Just guess, basically.
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