Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#41

Post by jakelarkin » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:30 PM UTC

geerlingguy wrote: post #23

melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

the ugliness is intentional, and i think this was even acknowledge by bmw execs to an extent. the margins on EV are comparitively very low, the (battery) supply chain is fragile. less profit + production headaches = don't make the product any more appealing than it needs to be

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#42

Post by luminiferous » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:30 PM UTC

bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-c...

Tesla has a history of drawing misleading market share graphs by comparing its cars against cars that reasonably would be considered to be in different market segments. You would have to be pretty charitable to call the model 3 a mid-sized sedan, for example.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#43

Post by aurailious » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:32 PM UTC

geerlingguy wrote: post #23

melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Volvo will have one soon to compete with the Y.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#44

Post by adventured » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:32 PM UTC

bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

Plausibly. For example BMW 3 + Audi A4 is only around 100,000 per year in the US combined.

The Tesla skeptics have gone out of their way to try to ignore what a dramatic accomplishment selling so many Model 3's so quickly represents (and doing so at such an elevated price point).

To top it off, the reviews keep coming in that several of the more ridiculous early manufacturing problems with the Model 3 have been fixed, such as panel alignment and seat comfort.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#45

Post by tedunangst » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:33 PM UTC

Puer wrote: post #34

geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

If you sell a gas car today, you can sell the same customer an electric car tomorrow.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#46

Post by idlewords » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:35 PM UTC

melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

It will be quite an accomplishment when they've demonstrated it. Talk is cheap with Tesla.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#47

Post by secabeen » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:36 PM UTC

luminiferous wrote: post #42

bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-c... Tesla has a history of drawing misleading market share graphs by comparing its cars against cars that reasonably would be considered to be in different market segments. You would have to be pretty charitable to call the model 3 a mid-sized sedan, for example.

That's a good point. Putting the 3 against the 5 series and E-Class is not really fair to MB and BMW. The 3 should be going against the C-Class and the 3-series, and there it has the highest share, but not 50%.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#48

Post by ghaff » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:38 PM UTC

Puer wrote: post #34

geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

How awful that they're making cars that their customers want to buy.

The reality is that electric cars aren't in great demand today, Everyone's working on them but most aren't in a particular hurry to push out cars that don't necessarily have a good mix of price/range/features for their customers and which they won't sell all that many of as a result.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#49

Post by zjaffee » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:38 PM UTC

geerlingguy wrote: post #23

melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Because battery technology isn't where it needs to be yet, where Tesla is absolutely winning when it comes to this. Honda released their plug in Honda Clarity, but it only has a range of 89 miles.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#50

Post by jhauris » Wed, Aug 01, 2018, 9:39 PM UTC

secabeen wrote: post #30

Alex3917 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even that phaseout will probably result in a lot of cancellations from people who have been on the waiting list for several months already but who haven't taken delivery by the end of the year. Especially for the orders at the lower end of the price spectrum, which haven't even started shipping yet. Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact sa…

> Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact same car. It's 10% more at most, and they are making it pretty clear now that the Short Range model will not be available before January 2019. Even then, many people can't even realize the entirety of a $7,500 tax credit. A single person needs $60k in income to generate $7,500 in taxes due after the…

Do people in those income brackets purchase vehicles that are that expensive? It doesn't seem wise to spend nearly half your pre-tax family income on a single vehicle. I've been assuming the average income of purchasers of the model 3 was in the $120k range, and even that seems on the low side for the price.