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The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

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Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There aren't any decentralised SQL engines really. There are distributed databases that provide SQL-like abilities, like Spanner, but they're optimised for huge scale and not low trust. They're still expected to be run by a single organisation, not a p2p network of many organisations. I am the lead engineer on Corda, which is an open source 'enterprise' (i.e. institutional/industrial) blockchain-inspired platform. Bu…

Thanks for the writeup and the whitepaper. I find it hard to follow the distinction between decentralised and distributed, especially since all of the points above would apply to your implementation, as well: All the decentralised networks rise and fall with enough political pressure, becasue they all have a weak spot - some form of organizational structure that needs to be kept alive by some entity. In your case (fr…

Why not jump on the Corda mailing lists and follow along as we work on these things?

The network map is a component I've spent a lot of time thinking about and working on, to make it more and more decentralised over time. Because yes a lot of users flag the same thing you have.

Corda has some simple features to mitigate this. For instance nodes have an additional-node-info directory where you can drop NodeInfo files. These act as overlays on the data received from the zone's network map. If the zone operator removes a party from the network map for some reason (maybe a court order, maybe a commercial dispute, or whatever) then you can just drop their NodeInfo file in this directory and it'll be as if they're still in the map.

So the idea is that the zone operator acts as a coordinator and provider of advice, but it doesn't have real control - node operators can always override whatever advice it's giving out.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#332
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One end goal of blockchains is indeed that they become the system of record, and that legal agreements are English translations of what the code says rather than the other way around. That might sound scary, but I'd point out a few things: 1. That future is still a long time away. The legal system is very conservative. 2. These systems don't have to be perfect, just better than what we have today. Yes, I certainly wo…

> But the idea that bank-run paper based systems are 100% secure is not true - they routinely go wrong just through basic mistakes and screwups, let alone actual fraud. Nobody expects bank systems to be 100% secure. Banking -- and in fact the entire free market economy -- would not happen if it was required that the systems be secure. It's just the opposite: it is assumed that bank systems will fail or be abused in a…

I'm glad you like Corda, given I designed a lot of it ;)

These topics have a lot of nuance. I didn't mean the end goal of blockchains is to actually replace governments; as you point out that's impossible because software systems don't have armies. But it's perfectly possible for a digital system to become a system of record and for what's on that system to be enforced by the courts however. Consider that the main way we make payments today is electronic, courts have no problem reasoning about or enforcing such payments.

So we have to distinguish between system of record, and system in which the final judgement rests with humans. You can certainly write a contract-as-code which still can be broken or overridden by judges.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#333
How is this not an article about the AI bubble about to pop?

From what I read, the entrepreneur is trying to have machine learning interpret a written contract into a digital form, which the author of the article considers to be (close to) impossible. To me it seems AI is a profitable buzzword for the entrepreneur, without it having any practical use for their company.

If blockchain is a bubble, because the entrepreneur uses it as a buzzword,

then AI must be in bubble, because the entrepreneur uses it as a buzzword.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#334
post #333

How is this not an article about the AI bubble about to pop? From what I read, the entrepreneur is trying to have machine learning interpret a written contract into a digital form, which the author of the article considers to be (close to) impossible. To me it seems AI is a profitable buzzword for the entrepreneur, without it having any practical use for their company. If blockchain is a bubble, because the entrepren…

Maybe because you can't profit speculating about AI bubble as it's not actually tradeable and barely anyone invests in it.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#335
post #4

I was about to make a snarky comment about sitting next to one idiot on an airplane and coming to a conclusion about a whole field. But then he sort of covered it in the last paragraph: > although the dot-com crash walked back valuations and chastened investors, a mature climate of internet businesses emerged in its wake. Today, technology firms account for 7 of the 10 largest companies in the world. The market didn’…

Yes, it's like the mostly urban legend about tulips, currently the tulip industry is worth billions. All industries will pop (I predict there will be another recession!), the only thing of value is knowing when and by how much.

Thing is, there was not a single speculative mania in the history of humanity that didn't crash and burn. Some of those new industries eventually outgrew expectations, but universally they achieved this long after the original speculators lost most of their investments.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#336
post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does Bank of America profit off of making transfers between Bank of America accounts slower than making transfers to other banks?

Because then they can float the money and put it in things that earn them interest... E.g. debit from Bob's account on Monday, put in from Monday until Thursday, and then put it Alice's account on Friday.

But they invest money that's sitting in a checking account already, there's no difference between it sitting in an account and it being "in transit"

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#337
post #333

How is this not an article about the AI bubble about to pop? From what I read, the entrepreneur is trying to have machine learning interpret a written contract into a digital form, which the author of the article considers to be (close to) impossible. To me it seems AI is a profitable buzzword for the entrepreneur, without it having any practical use for their company. If blockchain is a bubble, because the entrepren…

Maybe because you can't profit speculating about AI bubble as it's not actually tradeable and barely anyone invests in it.

But isn't the tradability of a technology orthogonal to whether it's a bubble?

Maybe I should've called it "signs the second AI winter" is coming?

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The biggest problem in the world today is lack of trust and the failure of institutions. That's a pretty strong statement, one that I would disagree with, mostly because it's so vague. How did you come to that conclusion?

Because of what's happening in [government, media, science, public spaces, labor markets]. I view all of them as examples of the same underlying phenomena. In government, you have the UK voting to remove itself from the EU, and then when the referendum passed, the prime minister resigning, all of the major proponents of the referendum resigning, and Scotland threatening to secede from the UK (again). You have a U.S.…

I think you have stated the right symptoms and identified a great angle. Indeed the fact that "similarly employees are terrified of ending up in a career dead-end" is related to the increase in the width of the Overton window. Indeed it's "ironic" that it's happening at the same time there is an explosion in the amount of information available. And indeed it's about institutions. But once we make those extraordinary observations, we tend to use a vocabulary centered around the world trust, and run the risk of veering off course. The multiple subtle uses of the word "trust" weaken the argument. For example you could argue Uber, Airbnb also happened and they use a huge amount of trust.

A trick I like ot do is to replace the word trust with "adhesion", a more precise word. It focuses the debate on a narrow phenomena and enable a different framework of thought. It also suggests conclusions about what's happening and highlights interesting features.

Our conscious decisions are made inside a symbolic fabric. For the sake of the arguments, let's reduce human beings to symbolic organisms living in an information ecosystem. That ecosystem is grounded in a physical reality, which govern its functionning. The way it works when embodied in parchment scrolls is different from the way it works when it's printed text.

What we usullay call information revolution is what happens when the physical artefacts underpining our information ecosystem change. When it happens it also changes the laws of our symbolic reality. A mental universe where, using google instant, one is able to refine a query, ten discover what she is actually looking for, learn that it actually exists, find related topics, compare them, find highly relevant comments, again and again... dozens of times a day is a totally different mental universe than the one we had merely 20 years ago.

If you were to close your eyes, suppress any thoughts about your physical surroundings, consider how we collectively process information and compare it to previous era, you would conclude that our minds have been propulsed into a sci-fi future and are living some kind of star trek fantasy.

That is maybe controversial, but the consequences about who we have become are interesting. Using again the symbolic organism metaphor, as the governing laws of our symbolic reality have changed, we also have evolved. Far more than we acknowledge. Our inner selves are being projected so far in the future, we are becoming aliens to our previous selves. Imagine if the strength of gravity was reduced to a thousandth of its current strength. The effect it would have on our bodies would be dramatic. That is what is happening to us.

You don't have to agree with that, but if you do you will start to see the problem. Our institutions which really are symbolic machinery or building, have been built implicitly following the laws of our symbolic reality. But while we are changing under the action of our new environment, our institutions are not.

The distance is growing, between people and the institutions that purport to guide them. As if they are gliding through them. They are less and less made of the same matter. What we are witnessing is an adhesion crisis.

Wearing those lenses, you will see more and more signs of what you mentionned in your comment. Lack of trust is the form it takes when people are actively engaging in a particular situation like during elections. Most of the time a growing minority is subconsciously deconnecting from institutions without even realizing it and without an ounce of ill will. Right now, some tech workers, working in Big Co are reading this site at this very moment, just to relax a little bit. Not realizing it's the 21st century equivalent of reading a anarcho-communist rag at lunch time while working for Ford circa 1920. The difference is nowadays you have to do it to stay relevant.

As times goes, that hidden "negative" adhesion potential, is building up, opening some cracks here and there. It is passively looking for anything, institution-like, that will help channel it's energy. And crypto looks like something that at least address the problem.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#339
post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because then they can float the money and put it in things that earn them interest... E.g. debit from Bob's account on Monday, put in from Monday until Thursday, and then put it Alice's account on Friday.

But they invest money that's sitting in a checking account already, there's no difference between it sitting in an account and it being "in transit"

I guess they don't pay interest to neither the sender or the receiver while it is "in transit"?

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#340
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s an interesting perspective to be sure, but let’s back up a bit. Has a blockchain proven that it can run a smaller organization yet? What happened to the DAO after all the hype and scandal? I’m not in the anti-blockchain macro-economics fiat-currency camp or anything, but is it unreasonable to say that this stuff needs a lot more time to develop? There’s no way in hell I’d go along with laws from a blockchain-g…

what do you mean a "blockchain government"? yes I would love all the laws of my country and everything else to be on a transparent unforgeable ledger for sure.

The point is that let's see a "blockchain organization" (like the DAO or something) succeed first before scaling it up, you know?
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