I would argue that, more than anyone else, the US is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order. It has been on that course since the post-9/11 insanity, and the trend has only accelerated since.
China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
21–30 of 94 posts
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
America has a number of enduring advantages: 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. 3. It is an offshoot of western civilization and therefore has natural allies in Europe. China's advantages are: 1. It has a population that is 3-4 times the size of the US. 2. Its economy is still underdeveloped, therefore economic growth is a lot easie…
> 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. You'd have to be insane to invade China, though. "Never get involved in a land war in Asia". Especially never get involved in a land war in Asia against someone with an army the size of China's. > 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. This advantage the current administration seems to be working as hard as possible to destroy. As far…
Yes, you'd have to be insane to invade China. Their massive army makes it mass suicide.
Maintaining that deterrence is the the actual disadvantage to China - not the risk of invasion, but the cost of preventing invasion.
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#23If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…
One of China's biggest demographic and economic problems is that it employs a million people to mine coal and steel. http://fortune.com/2016/03/22/mounting-debts-china/
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their Geography is not better either they do not have direct access to Pacific, their energy dependence on ME oil is very evident and of course 17 bordering states with numerous disputes. If US goes down (that's a big If and very unlikely event) then Pacific will be Japanese playground not Chinas and India will tie-up with the biggest maritime power to check them in India Ocean. Its really hard to be a super power at…
Japan does not have the capability to compete with Chinese naval power. Why do you think it’s unlikely that the US will go down? What time frame are you attributing this unlikelihood to take place in? I’m assuming you mean in the next few decades and not meaning a much larger time frame. I have no expertise but it appears from my perspective that the US is in a state of imperial decline. I think this will accelerate…
There are definitely signs of decline; I'm with you there. The problem is that there have been signs of decline before - leading up to the Civil War, the Great Depression, Vietnam. The question is, is this negative derivative at the moment the start of the Big Decline, or is it just a temporary downtrend?
I also fear that it's the start of the Big Decline, but I'm far from certain of that...
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#25But Russia is who we need to be concerned about, right?
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#26I'm excited to see how the world will turn out with new leadership, absolutely nothing wrong with progress/trying new things.
I think I can be pretty confident in saying that a global super power not founded on enlightenment ideas will be an objectively worse place to live.
It's frightening to think of a world controlled by China although Western societies are heading in China's direction and left wingers have no problem eroding free speech rights...
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
Japan does not have the capability to compete with Chinese naval power. Why do you think it’s unlikely that the US will go down? What time frame are you attributing this unlikelihood to take place in? I’m assuming you mean in the next few decades and not meaning a much larger time frame. I have no expertise but it appears from my perspective that the US is in a state of imperial decline. I think this will accelerate…
There are definitely signs of decline; I'm with you there. The problem is that there have been signs of decline before - leading up to the Civil War, the Great Depression, Vietnam. The question is, is this negative derivative at the moment the start of the Big Decline, or is it just a temporary downtrend? I also fear that it's the start of the Big Decline, but I'm far from certain of that...
The “Big Decline” will be a Great Filter event, but the timeframe for that event is still uncertain. It is still inevitable, however.
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
In many ways, yes. I think Americans tend to underestimate how incredibly damaging US foreign policy has been to massive chunks of the world. The same cannot be said of China. To grossly overgeneralize: China sucks for Chinese people. America sucks for non-Americans¹, and that's only become worse in the recent past. It's something I welcome, with some reluctance. ¹ I mean this in global terms. Not referring to immigr…
If you think "China sucks for Chinese people", please explain why you also seem to believe they would treat others any better than their own?
They don't treat other people better. Chinese foreign policy is generally indifferent to the politics of their trade partners. China doesn't intervene, for better or worse, in the running of other countries. There are no Chinese analogs to America's unambiguously disastrous adventures in Iran (Mosaddegh), Iraq, Afghanistan, Apartheid South Africa, Chile (Allende), Vietnam etc.
America's main success, in my opinion, has been the ability to cast itself, and perhaps more importantly see itself as one of the good guys - if not the Good Guy™ - while simultaneously setting half the world on fire. China has no such pretensions.
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their Geography is not better either they do not have direct access to Pacific, their energy dependence on ME oil is very evident and of course 17 bordering states with numerous disputes. If US goes down (that's a big If and very unlikely event) then Pacific will be Japanese playground not Chinas and India will tie-up with the biggest maritime power to check them in India Ocean. Its really hard to be a super power at…
Japan does not have the capability to compete with Chinese naval power. Why do you think it’s unlikely that the US will go down? What time frame are you attributing this unlikelihood to take place in? I’m assuming you mean in the next few decades and not meaning a much larger time frame. I have no expertise but it appears from my perspective that the US is in a state of imperial decline. I think this will accelerate…
> For me the canary in the coal mine event was Gulf War 1 when the US went around asking other countries to help pay for our war.
On the contrary I would say Gulf War 1 was the last example of the US empire operating as designed: a large coalition of westernized nations implicitly following the leadership in the US, in a network of institutions and alliances entirely built around the assumption of US supremacy.
IMO the second Gulf War was the first blow to the US-centric international system... and it was the US themselves who dealt that blow.
Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
#30I would argue that, more than anyone else, the US is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order. It has been on that course since the post-9/11 insanity, and the trend has only accelerated since.
As an American I would be happy to see someone else take responsibility. If China thinks they can somehow bring stability to the Middle East then give them a shot. At least when they inevitably descend into chaos again it wont be us having to babysit. I think many Americans are hoping China tries to take a leadership role in Asia and near neighbors