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Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

theinquirer.net

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Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#61

Post by redtuesday »

gimmeThaBeet wrote: post #41
phire wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This fact keeps getting more and more exaggerated as time goes on. Yes, intel's 10nm absolutely smashes Samsung, GF and TSMC's 10nm processes. Yes Intel's 10nm should be very competitive/comparable with Samsung/GF/TSMC's 7nm processes. But all of the Intel 10nm metrics are slightly worse than the 7nm processes its now competing with. To cherrypick one metric as an example - * TSMC 10nm sram bitcell size: 0.042 µm² *…

Thank you for actually showing feature size metrics, it has been a bit maddening to see people say 'you can compare them directly' but then I can't find a lot of comparisons about any kinds of features.

If you want that I recommend to look at semiwiki [0] and wikichip [1][2]

[0] https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/7343-leading-edge-log...

[1] https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/10_nm_lithography_process

[2] https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/7_nm_lithography_process

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#63

Post by redtuesday »

There are even rumors that Intel delayed the much more important Xeons to 2020, which could give AMD a 1 year head start with Zen2 on 7nm in the server space (comparable to Intels 10 nm).

Copy paste from my posting yesterday:

EDIT: it seems the twitter post got deleted.

EDIT2: anandtech still has the pictures: https://www.anandtech.com/show/13119/intels-xeon-scalable-ro...

> If the rumor [0] that Intel's first 10nm server chip will only release mid 2020 is true, then AMD's shares will probably skyrocket again if they truly can release their Zen 2 server CPU mid 2019 (on 7nm which is comparable to Intel's 10nm).

[0] https://twitter.com/david_schor/status/1022142835989118977

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#64

Post by danpalmer »

torgoguys wrote: post #13
joeblau wrote: post #7

The end is nigh Intel. Just like Apple switched to Intel Power PC’s were not upgrading, so will Apple switch to ARM.

Macs aren't a huge percent of Intel's processor business. It's a big enough percent that they would miss it, but Apple's desktop and portable market share is still small. And then there are servers.

This is true, however Apple are probably the single most visible sales channel for Intel processors in the eyes of consumers. I’d expect this to have a much bigger impact in the markets because of the publicity of the change more than anything else.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#65

Post by throwaway77384 »

gnusci wrote: post #9

Well they have a lot of things to care of before to release the next CPU https://www.intel.ca/content/www/ca/en/support/articles/0000... In particular security issues related to the IME: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Management_Engine

I hate that thing more than anything else in computing.

Windows 10 spying pales in comparison to the theoretical capabilities of the ME.

There was this brief campaign to try to get AMD to let users control or disable their ME equivalent, but it never went anywhere.

I would kill for a modern computing platform without this crap built in. Soon forced DRM will go through it as well.

It's absolutely shocking to see how much control people (and even companies) have surrendered to Intel.

I'd recommend only buying libre / coreboot compatible hardware (or librem, or system76 systems) until users can gain more control over the Intel ME.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#66

Post by lucian »

The secret behind 10nm technology:

https://www.asml.com/press/press-releases/earnings-growth-co...

“Outlook For the third-quarter of 2018, ASML expects net sales between EUR 2.7 billion and EUR 2.8 billion, a gross margin between 47 percent and 48 percent. R&D costs of about EUR 395 million, SG&A costs of about EUR 120 million. Our target effective annualized tax rate is around 14 percent.”

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#67

Post by unwind »

phire wrote: post #35
seiferteric wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every single time an article comes up about this someone says this, and every single time someone refutes this saying that 7nm is a lie. Intel 10nm is supposed to be more dense than TSMC 7nm (if they ever get there).

This fact keeps getting more and more exaggerated as time goes on. Yes, intel's 10nm absolutely smashes Samsung, GF and TSMC's 10nm processes. Yes Intel's 10nm should be very competitive/comparable with Samsung/GF/TSMC's 7nm processes. But all of the Intel 10nm metrics are slightly worse than the 7nm processes its now competing with. To cherrypick one metric as an example - * TSMC 10nm sram bitcell size: 0.042 µm² *…

Meta: indenting is for code, and very hard to read on mobile.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#68

Post by deaddodo »

deepnotderp wrote: post #49
seiferteric wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every single time an article comes up about this someone says this, and every single time someone refutes this saying that 7nm is a lie. Intel 10nm is supposed to be more dense than TSMC 7nm (if they ever get there).

Tsmc "7nm" and Intel "10nm" are roughly identical. Intel random logic is a bit denser thanks to COAG, SDG and BEOL and TSMC SRAM is a decent bit denser, that's mostly it.

No, TSMC 7nm is slightly ahead of Intel 10nm. Not 3nm ahead, but still, better.

Also, one exists and the other is a broken hunk of silicon. That's the most important metric.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#69

Post by ksec »

rm999 wrote: post #21

It's fun to dig up old predictions of where we'd be today. Here's an article from 2002: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1176510 >Moore's Law scales to at least 9nm: technologist >It'll be at least a human generation before Moore's Law begins to run out of gas at around the 9nm and even then it may thrive, TSMC's chief technologist said Tuesday (March 12). Calvin Chenming Hu told an audience at the annual…

>Intel is off by 4-5 years according to their initial estimates (in 2011) of hitting 10nm

In 2011 they were expecting 10nm in 2016. So it was not really off by 4 - 5 years. More like 3 - 4 years.

>TSMC's chief technologist said Tuesday (March 12).

Somewhere along the line TSMC's node naming no longer follows Intel's node naming. So that 9nm they mention is more like today's TSMC 5nm. So if you look at 2024 for TSMC's 5nm it isn't too far off. TSMC is planning to have 5nm in 2020. The 4 years speed up has been from heavy investment of Mobile SoC and industry scales changes that were not foreseen at the time.

Re: Intel delays 10nm Cannon Lake processors, again, until late 2019

#70

Post by ksec »

throwaway2048 wrote: post #30
hinkley wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consensus the last time there was a delay was that TSMC's 7nm process is roughly comparable to Intel's 10nm process. They're still ahead, but only until Intel finally ships 10nm. I'm not sure how much this affects the industry in general, but I bet there are some interesting Intel vs Arm discussions being fueled in Apple's product roadmap meetings.

TSMC hasn't shipped 7nm yet. Nor has actual production of chips began.

True, but if all goes according to plan TSMC will have 7nm producing and shipping any moment now and ready for iPhone in September.
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